Fiscal Cliff MEGATHREAD: Wile E. Economy falls off, lands in cloud at bottom

[Faeelin]

Wouldn't it be the easiest to just postpone the various measures of the fiscal cliff by half a year?

Why? I've been told for years now that the deficit is the greatest threat facing America. Let's cheer on the painful austerity measures!

[CountDeMoney]

Wouldn't it be the easiest to just postpone the various measures of the fiscal cliff by half a year?

Why? I've been told for years now that the deficit is the greatest threat facing America. Let's cheer on the painful austerity measures!

Yup, nothing says "The Destruction of America" like measures that would balance the budget by 2040.  So fuck it, let's do it in hyperdrive.  I hear it's all the rage in Europe.

[Zanza]

Wouldn't it be the easiest to just postpone the various measures of the fiscal cliff by half a year?

Why? I've been told for years now that the deficit is the greatest threat facing America. Let's cheer on the painful austerity measures!

I am just wondering why these measures are "automatic". If everybody agrees the status quo is better then these measures, I guess it may be easier to just stop them instead of working out a compromise...

[Admiral Yi]

I am just wondering why these measures are "automatic". If everybody agrees the status quo is better then these measures, I guess it may be easier to just stop them instead of working out a compromise...

They're automatic because they were initially voted on with a definite end date.  To continue them would require a new piece of legislation.  Which would require a majority vote in the GOP controlled House and a majority vote in the Democrat controlled Senate.  Plus no veto. 

And none of the parties is in favor of continuing the status quo ante.  For example Boehner's "Plan B" made the Bush tax cuts permanent, except for people earning a million plus.  The House rank and file was not going to accept even that (since it raised taxes), Reid said it was dead before it made it to the Senate, and Obama said he would veto it.  The Democrats want taxes raised on people earning 250K plus.

"Just extending them" is what they ended up doing the last time the Bush tax cuts expired and I figure there's a decent chance the same thing will happen again this time, at the very last moment.

[CountDeMoney]

The Democrats want taxes raised on people earning 250K plus.

Obama's most recent offer was $400K+.

[Valmy]

MILK CLIFF

'If a new farm bill is not approved, one from 1949 will go into effect, and milk's price may reach $6 to $8 a gallon.'



http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/21/us/milk-prices-could-double-as-farm-bill-stalls.html

Yeah the prices on the things everybody needs, food and fuel and housing, keeps going up dramatically.  At least luxury goods are pretty cheap, thanks China.

[Valmy]

Heh Boehner could not even get his party to agree to raise taxes on the 1$ Million+ people.  Pretty much no chance of compromise now.

[Admiral Yi]

Yeah the prices on the things everybody needs, food and fuel and housing, keeps going up dramatically.  At least luxury goods are pretty cheap, thanks China.

The price of milk would rise in the absence of a new farm bill because of government price supports, not because of market forces.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think people are overreacting to this. Boehner's plan B was opposed by the President and Pelosi, so it was not going to get a single Democratic vote in the House. Which means he'd need almost his entire caucus to pass it.

With a compromise vote, a vast majority of the Democrats will vote for it, even some of the ones balking about Obama's agreement to cut spending will be brought in line as evidence suggests the Democrats have more party control than the Republicans. So most likely if we get a compromise it will pass the House the same way the Budget Control Act 2011 will (the legislation that got us to this point), Boehner was able to get about 175 Republicans (66 voted against it) and 95 Democrats. But when Boehner is trying to pass his "Plan B" with 0 Democratic support suddenly he needs at least 218 of his own caucus (which means fewer than 20 Republicans can buck his leadership--over 60 did in the Budget Control Act.)

[Faeelin]

I think people are overreacting to this. Boehner's plan B was opposed by the President and Pelosi, so it was not going to get a single Democratic vote in the House. Which means he'd need almost his entire caucus to pass it.

Do we know how many House members were opposed? Boehner withdrew the bill, no?

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think people are overreacting to this. Boehner's plan B was opposed by the President and Pelosi, so it was not going to get a single Democratic vote in the House. Which means he'd need almost his entire caucus to pass it.

Do we know how many House members were opposed? Boehner withdrew the bill, no?

There are head counters in Congress who work for the leaders of both parties in matters like this. Unless someone leaks it, the head counts aren't public and are based on backroom conversations. We just know based on that, Boehner lost at least 20+ GOP votes because that is what makes it unpassable with 100% Democratic opposition.

[Faeelin]

So your point is that Boehner spent a weak touting a plan he knew he didn't have the votes to pass?

[Valmy]

The price of milk would rise in the absence of a new farm bill because of government price supports, not because of market forces.

Um wouldn't that mean the market would set those prices even higher?  Presuming these government price supports are keeping them artificially low.

[Kleves]

Republicans seem to be doing their best to make me a Democrat. 

[crazy canuck]

The price of milk would rise in the absence of a new farm bill because of government price supports, not because of market forces.

Um wouldn't that mean the market would set those prices even higher?  Presuming these government price supports are keeping them artificially low.

I am not sure that a reduction in US farm subsidies would be such a bad thing