Voting for President, for the wrong reasons?

[Sheilbh]

It was well-timed, to the point where it seems to have largely gone unnoticed.  Had he gone centrist in the primary he wouldn't have made it through.

Quite that would've been ill-timed.  But my point is really that he never should've stopped being moderate.  I think if he'd always maintained the public persona of a reasonably successful, moderate, bipartisan Republican Governor of a blue state he'd be winning by a landslide.

You overestimate the viability of a moderate GOP candidate.  The truth is they don't do too well in the general election these days.  The GOP base is absolutely necessary, and the Democrats and large segments of the media will still paint a moderate GOP candidate as an extreme Republican just by association.  Lose-lose.

The victim card bores me.  I don't like it when it comes up from any group, but from conservatives it's especially tedious.

The last real moderate GOP candidate was W.  He ran as a compassionate conservative, with a record of governing a state, who believed in reforming immigration and, after years of Democrat foreign policy activism and nation-building, in a humble foreign policy.  He won.  Romney's not nearly enough like W in my view.

You guys seem to think Palin cost McCain the election in 2008.  It may have lowered McCain's standing in the Languish echo-chamber and outside the US, but McCain would have lost by a larger margin had he chosen a moderate candidate.

I don't think Palin cost McCain the election, but she did lose him votes.  I believe academic studies think she did, which is almost unprecedented for a VP candidate.  Some estimate around 2% and say she's the most negatively consequential VP pick of the century.

Personally I think there was a nastiness in the way Sarah Palin was treated (it reminded me of the Tories against Gordon Brown).  I quite liked her to begin with and I think it's a shame she didn't finish her term, build some credibility on foreign policy and other issues.  Because I think she had the potential to be a superb candidate - she's the dream populist conservative..  Sadly she preferred reality TV to politics.

I said in the primary that if Huntsman were to win it I'd probably vote third party.  And believe me, I'm not the only one.

Yeah.  But I think you'd all probably have come home as election time neared and many of you would've been replaced by independents and moderates and frustrated Democrats.  The negative consequence of the base being turned off isn't necessarily that they don't vote, it's that they don't help out with the campaign and volunteer on election day etc.  If you don't do that I think a campaign could afford to lose you.

[derspiess]

I bet you had kittens watching Air Force One touch down in New Jersey, too, like your boy Rush did.  CHRISTIE THAT TRAITOR

Nah.  Christie gets leeway.  And I'm sure he'll be with me cheering on a Blue Hen victory Saturday

[CountDeMoney]

But how many social issues have the actual GOP candidates put out in front?

Exsqueeze me?  Baking Powder?  Did you not pay attention to the primaries, or any primary since 1988?

It's the same routine every cycle:  radical, over-the-top social conservatism during the primaries and their debates, each one trying to out 15th century the other, and then hush-hush right before the nomination, before anybody notices.

[Sheilbh]

Polls indicate Palin made the race a tie (even small McCain lead), and then the tanking economy in late September / early October caused it to become a Democratic landslide.

She gave him a huge boost.  Her approval ratings (and McCain's) started sliding about a week before the crash.  That looks to have been a catalyst that was then intensified by the economic situation.  As I say, research suggests that she probably cost him votes:
http://bostonreview.net/BR34.5/johnston_thorson.php
http://www.stanford.edu/~elis/Elis%20et%20al%202010%20Dynamics%20of%20Candidate%20Evaluations.pdf
Basically how people perceived Sarah Palin was a bigger indication of how they perceived McCain than is the norm for a VP candidate, and larger than, say, their views on W.

[derspiess]

But how many social issues have the actual GOP candidates put out in front?

Exsqueeze me?  Baking Powder?  Did you not pay attention to the primaries, or any primary since 1988?

It's the same routine every cycle:  radical, over-the-top social conservatism during the primaries and their debates, each one trying to out 15th century the other, and then hush-hush right before the nomination, before anybody notices.

Well, I was talking about the general election.

[Sheilbh]

It depends on the social issue.  I think the GOP's on the wrong side on the gays and immigration.  But I think their position on abortion (though it seems to be getting more extreme) as a litmus test makes sense - same for the Dems.  Ultimately it's an issue that can only be resolved by judges who can only be appointed by the President.

[jimmy olsen]

Polls indicate Palin made the race a tie (even small McCain lead), and then the tanking economy in late September / early October caused it to become a Democratic landslide.

Looks like his support cratered after Couric (Katie Couric! ) eviscerated her and everyone realized McCain was one heart beat from an imbecile taking office.

[jimmy olsen]

Basically how people perceived Sarah Palin was a bigger indication of how they perceived McCain than is the norm for a VP candidate, and larger than, say, their views on W.

What does that mean? I fucking love McCain, literally my favorite politician of the last 20 years.

[Sheilbh]

What does that mean? I fucking love McCain, literally my favorite politician of the last 20 years.

There's a link there

Basically a person's view of different figures influenced which way they chose to vote.  The normal people who influence that are the candidates.  Bush grew less important.  How VP candidates are perceived doesn't normally matter a great deal, and it didn't with Biden - with Palin it did.  How people viewed Palin was, unusually, an indicator of whether they approved of the McCain campaign and would vote for him.

[Razgovory]

Polls indicate Palin made the race a tie (even small McCain lead), and then the tanking economy in late September / early October caused it to become a Democratic landslide.

Looks like his support cratered after Couric (Katie Couric! ) eviscerated her and everyone realized McCain was one heart beat from an imbecile taking office.

She hardly "eviscerated", Palin.  It was a softball interview.  "What do you read?", is not exactly a difficult question to answer.  It's not a question you are suppose to get wrong.

[Eddie Teach]

It's not a question you're supposed to ask. Which is why it threw her off.

[Sheilbh]

It's not a question you're supposed to ask. Which is why it threw her off.

If you're a national politician it shouldn't throw you off and you shouldn't reply 'most of them'

I don't think it's that odd a question for a so far little known governor two years into her term who's been picked as VP:

COURIC: And when it comes to establishing your world view, I was curious, what newspapers and magazines did you regularly read before you were tapped for this — to stay informed and to understand the world?
PALIN: I've read most of them again with a great appreciation for the press, for the media, coming f—
COURIC: But like which ones specifically? I'm curious that you—
PALIN: Um, all of 'em, any of 'em that, um, have, have been in front of me over all these years. Um, I have a va—
COURIC: Can you name a few?
PALIN: I have a vast variety of sources where we get our news too. Alaska isn't a foreign country, where, it's kind of suggested and it seems like, 'Wow, how could you keep in touch with what the rest of Washington, D.C. may be thinking and doing when you live up there in Alaska?' Believe me, Alaska is like a microcosm of America.

[CountDeMoney]

It's not a question you're supposed to ask. Which is why it threw her off.

Every politician should be ready for it since Bush's ambush on current events in '99.

[Jaron]

I'm voting for Obama because he hangs out with JayZ and Beyonce.

[MadImmortalMan]

Berk, if you ever get a chance to vote for president for the "right" reasons, I'll be shocked.