The Great Debate Megathread! Black Lincoln versus whiter, richer Douglas!

[Eddie Teach]

I LOVE the electoral college.

Certainly makes election night more interesting.

[jimmy olsen]

I'm speaking very generally here because I don't quite agree with your characterization of Romney in the debate, but are you shocked that a significant portion of the electorate values style over substance?

Good point, once I listened to the Nixon-Kennedy debate and was amazed anybody ever though Nixon didn't wipe the floor with him.

People who listened to the debate on the radio did believe that, unfortunately a hell of a lot more people watched the debate on tv.

[Capetan Mihali]

In other news, I have actually read some Hyman Minsky as of today.  A working paper from '90 or '91 on the financial instability hypothesis.    

[The Minsky Moment]

Of course you know what it means.  You were very active in the threads about the GM bailout. 

One of the aspects of that bailout plan put forth by Obama's auto czar was it called for holders of GM bonds to be paid a specified fraction of par value (10%? 20?).  Several bond holders opposed the plan, in the belief that as first claimants to GM's assets they could do better than 10% in a liquidation.  Obama obviously didn't want GM to be liquidated.  He threatened the bond holders with time in the media stocks if they didn't give in.  After he made the threat they gave in.

The reason why I don't know what these means is because it didn't happen.
Most bond holders approved the 363 sale because they knew (and it was obvious) that a liquidation would leave them with nothing.
A few bondholders did challenge the sale.  They failed because (among other things) they didn't present any evidence that a liquidation or any other alternative would yield more value, but the only consequence of that failure was Judge Gerber denying their claim.  No pillories or any other medievial punishment equipment was involved.

[The Minsky Moment]

In other news, I have actually read some Hyman Minsky as of today.  A working paper from '90 or '91 on the financial instability hypothesis.    

[PDH]

In other news, I have actually read some Hyman Minsky as of today.  A working paper from '90 or '91 on the financial instability hypothesis.    

That calls for a toast!  White wine and orange juice for everyone!

[Eddie Teach]

Why are you trying to make Minsky white whine?

[derspiess]

Those are RCP averages.  You know what I think about that meaningless babble.

Actually, I've been mislead by a link to RCP.  That was actually just one tracking poll, which is an even more meaningless number (especially if it was cherry-picked rather than taken at random).  The RCP averages point to a 2-2.5% post-debate swing, which is exactly what 538 indicates as well.

Well, now here's one you can dismiss as ever more meaningless:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

The Pew poll of likely voters had a gigantic swing, like 12-ish as of yesterday.

[DGuller]

Yeah, swing of 12, I'm going to be a little skeptical without further corroboration.  Let's see what Pew says in a couple of days.

[Barrister]

Yeah, swing of 12, I'm going to be a little skeptical without further corroboration.  Let's see what Pew says in a couple of days.

You know he linked to the RCP poll of polls, right?  The result is certainly corroborated.

Now let's see if it's sustained, or a momentary bounce.  That's the real question.

[DGuller]

Yeah, swing of 12, I'm going to be a little skeptical without further corroboration.  Let's see what Pew says in a couple of days.

You know he linked to the RCP poll of polls, right?  The result is certainly corroborated.

No, the post-debate swing of 12 is not corroborated at all, and I'm not sure how the RCP poll of polls led you to believe otherwise.  No other poll had a swing nearly that big, so such an outlier should immediately make everyone skeptical.

[Barrister]

Yeah, swing of 12, I'm going to be a little skeptical without further corroboration.  Let's see what Pew says in a couple of days.

You know he linked to the RCP poll of polls, right?  The result is certainly corroborated.

No, the post-debate swing of 12 is not corroborated at all, and I'm not sure how the RCP poll of polls led you to believe otherwise.  No other poll had a swing nearly that big, so such an outlier should immediately make everyone skeptical.

Because RCP merely combines together several different polls.  Follow the link.  3 of the 6 polls now show Romney in the lead, 2 show Obama, and one shows a tie.  I don't think anyone had Romney in the lead a few days ago.

It's a definite bounce.  But lets see if it lasts.

[DGuller]

Because RCP merely combines together several different polls.  Follow the link.  3 of the 6 polls now show Romney in the lead, 2 show Obama, and one shows a tie.  I don't think anyone had Romney in the lead a few days ago.

And that corroborates a 12 point bounce how?

It's a definite bounce.  But lets see if it lasts.

Yes, it's a bounce.  But a 1 point bounce is not quite the same as a 200 point bounce.  Magnitude matters in statistics, it's not just true/false.

[Admiral Yi]

The reason why I don't know what these means is because it didn't happen.
Most bond holders approved the 363 sale because they knew (and it was obvious) that a liquidation would leave them with nothing.
A few bondholders did challenge the sale.  They failed because (among other things) they didn't present any evidence that a liquidation or any other alternative would yield more value, but the only consequence of that failure was Judge Gerber denying their claim.  No pillories or any other medievial punishment equipment was involved.

Really??  Under US bankruptcy law creditors have to convince a judge that they would do better under liquidation than a settlement?

This seems such a basic point, how was it the media so completely missed it at the time?

[Phillip V]

Associated Press (AP) criticized for using this as the main photo of an article about Romney visiting a school in Virginia today.

Caption: "Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney poses for photographs with students of Fairfield Elementary School, Monday, Oct. 8, 2012, in Fairfield, Va."



http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/10/ap-clarifies-romney-photo-caption-137909.html