The China Thread

[The Minsky Moment]

Hong Kong's main draw is the listing of Chinese companies.  They won't list in Singapore.

But they will list in Shanghai and Shenzen - daily equity trading in those markets already dwarfs HK.

I think sheilbh's point is well taken - if HK loses its unique status it ends up as just another large Chinese regional city.

[Barrister]

I'm not 100% convinced the west will intervene in Taiwan. we didn't card when russia gobbled up a chunk of the ukraine.

Not even Ukraine (not "the Ukraine" anymore, btw) intervened when Russia took the Crimea.

But Russia struck at a very precise moment - in the immediate aftermath of a revolution in Ukraine.  Yanukovych fled the country Feb 22, 2014, while Russian special forces started seizing buildings Feb 27.

[Legbiter]

Like Legbiter said, if Taiwan can be controlled quickly, would the world come in an pry it from their grubby little commie hands? I'm not sure.

Taiwan is a very, very hard first opponent for the Chinese navy to tackle though. For one it's apparently only feasible to invade once typhoon season is over, the distance to Taiwan from the mainland makes the Normandy invasion seem like a short jaunt and Taiwanese geography is a bitch with not that many feasible landing beaches available.

There's a million ways this goes tits up for the Chinese, probably better for them to go beat up Mongolia for that regime street cred.

[Barrister]

Like Legbiter said, if Taiwan can be controlled quickly, would the world come in an pry it from their grubby little commie hands? I'm not sure.

Taiwan is a very, very hard first opponent for the Chinese navy to tackle though. For one it's apparently only feasible to invade once typhoon season is over, the distance to Taiwan from the mainland makes the Normandy invasion seem like a short jaunt and Taiwanese geography is a bitch with not that many feasible landing beaches available.

There's a million ways this goes tits up for the Chinese, probably better for them to go beat up Mongolia for that regime street cred.

Also, this isn't 1944 anymore.  A Chinese buildup to take Taiwan would be noticeable for weeks ahead of timegiving the US and others time to prepare.

[Sheilbh]

Also, this isn't 1944 anymore.  A Chinese buildup to take Taiwan would be noticeable for weeks ahead of timegiving the US and others time to prepare.

See the recent discovery from satellite images of a new airstrip on an Omani island - guessed to be Emirati.

[HVC]

doesn't china have 2 million plus active soldiers? how much of a build up do they need? Although, i guess troop movement to the south would be noticeable.

[Berkut]

doesn't china have 2 million plus active soldiers? how much of a build up do they need? Although, i guess troop movement to the south would be noticeable.

It's a long way to swim. They could have 2 billion soldiers, but they still have to get them across the straight. It's not really a numbers thing, it is a transport and support thing.

[Admiral Yi]

Also, this isn't 1944 anymore.

1941?

[HVC]

invasion by kayak

[Barrister]

Also, this isn't 1944 anymore.

1941?

I was thinking of D-Day.

[Jacob]

doesn't china have 2 million plus active soldiers? how much of a build up do they need? Although, i guess troop movement to the south would be noticeable.

I'm not confident that the regime would be able to sustain significant losses over an extended period of time. They may be able to, but it's not a given IMO, though a lot depends on the particulars of the conflict.

The information warfare angle would be interesting too.

[Syt]

How much of a question mark are Chinese capabilities, on the whole? They've not exactly been combat tested in recent memory.

[Valmy]

How much of a question mark are Chinese capabilities, on the whole? They've not exactly been combat tested in recent memory.

Well nothing beyond those weird skirmishes they have been having with India.

[DGuller]

There was that decisive victory in 1989, though I don't know whether it should be considered recent enough.

[Valmy]

They do look sharp in their military parades.