The China Thread

[HVC]

How much of a question mark are Chinese capabilities, on the whole? They've not exactly been combat tested in recent memory.

Well nothing beyond those weird skirmishes they have been having with India.

That's the incident where they beat eachother with clubs, right?

[Admiral Yi]

That's the incident where they beat eachother with clubs, right?

And some giant spiked roller thing.

[grumbler]

How much of a question mark are Chinese capabilities, on the whole? They've not exactly been combat tested in recent memory.

The Chinese have spent a lot of money on military training, indoctrination, and officer training.  I think that you have to consider them a typically effective conscript army (not on the level of the Israeli army, but not Russia, either).

The Navy and Air Force are more of a mixed bag.  The very name "People's Liberation Army Navy" tells you who call the shots and gets the promotions.  the navy's equipment seems decent, but they've not had modern naval equipment long enough to have developed effective doctrines and training.  Their carriers, for instance, are at least a decade away from being fully operational.  I suspect the same is true of their modern surface ships.  Submarines are probably typically effective, though, as they've had decent subs for long enough to know how to use them.

And Taiwan doesn't even have the PRC's military traditions and background.

[grumbler]

There was that decisive victory in 1989, though I don't know whether it should be considered recent enough.

Actually, the PLA suffered a whole series of defeats in 1989 before they brought in Mongolians who weren't at all reluctant to kill Han.

[Threviel]

How's the ROC defense? From what I gather a lot of their navy seems old. Is the army up to snuff?

[The Brain]

The army can beat off any land attack.

[grumbler]

How's the ROC defense? From what I gather a lot of their navy seems old. Is the army up to snuff?

The ROC military is set up for a scenario that is no longer plausible:  fighting for air and sea control over the Taiwan Strait.   That's what they are structured for, with air and sea forces considerably outnumbering land forces.

In the modern day situation, with China having eliminated the ROC's technological advantages and being able to deploy missiles capable of knocking out the ROC's main bases, the ROC needs to pivot to sea and air denial, and abandon the idea that it can defend anything except the main island itself.  That means abandoning the building of fighters and large surface combatants, and focusing on deploying large numbers of mobile SAMs and SSMs, plus associated recon and targeting assets.  Right now the ROC military is probably better-trained and motivated than the PLA/N/AF, but not as well equipped and certainly not as well equipped to fight the war that is likely to occur.  The pivot to sea and air denial is happening, but only slowly.  The existing military brass were successful because they were the best at the old strategy, and military budgets have shrunk.

There is also a probable Fifth Column issue.

[Threviel]

What are the odds of Taiwan getting F-35? Their air force seems to be made up of archaic F-5s, old F-16s, oldish Mirage 2000 and not very many of them either. Wikie has the with 56 F-16 V on order, but 56 modern fighters are not going to stop the PLA.

From my perspective it seems that Taiwan would have use of Visby's, A26's and Gripen's. About the same strategic context of a superior enemy that can be expected to have air and naval superiority and only a short distance away.

[Grey Fox]

Would the US stop food export to China in the defense of Taiwan?

[grumbler]

What are the odds of Taiwan getting F-35? Their air force seems to be made up of archaic F-5s, old F-16s, oldish Mirage 2000 and not very many of them either. Wikie has the with 56 F-16 V on order, but 56 modern fighters are not going to stop the PLA.

From my perspective it seems that Taiwan would have use of Visby's, A26's and Gripen's. About the same strategic context of a superior enemy that can be expected to have air and naval superiority and only a short distance away.

If it needs a runway, it's a bad bet for Taiwan (unless ballistic and cruise missile defenses are massively beefed up, which would probably preclude being able to afford aircraft).  Taiwan needs a lot of mobile stuff and maybe some smaller drones for air surveillance.  Anything in a fixed position should be counted as lost in the first hour of conflict.

[Threviel]

Yeah, that's why I thought Gripen, all it needs is a straight road. But of course, to make a difference it would need hundreds and that is not going to happen.

What about a US trigger force located in Taiwan. Have US planes at ROC bases so any attack by necessity would include the US?

[Berkut]

What about a US trigger force located in Taiwan. Have US planes at ROC bases so any attack by necessity would include the US?

Just basing US forces on Taiwan would be seen as a huge provocation. And rightly so, because it would be for exactly the reason you are stating.

[Tonitrus]

Indeed...but it would be an interesting move.  Very provocative, but provocative enough to trigger an immediate invasion?  Even knowing that you couldn't avoid risking direct US military casualties and thus a greater trigger for US intervention?

[Threviel]

What about a US trigger force located in Taiwan. Have US planes at ROC bases so any attack by necessity would include the US?

Just basing US forces on Taiwan would be seen as a huge provocation. And rightly so, because it would be for exactly the reason you are stating.

Yeah, so? Perhaps time for some cold war mentality again, stare them down and all that. The US is in the same position as 1914 Germany, it will only get relatively weaker as time goes by, stare them down when it's still possible.

[Berkut]

Indeed...but it would be an interesting move.  Very provocative, but provocative enough to trigger an immediate invasion?  Even knowing that you couldn't avoid risking direct US military casualties and thus a greater trigger for US intervention?

Well, that is the question, in one form or another, every US administration has been wrestling with for the last 50 years, right?

China wants Taiwan back.

The rest of the world, including Taiwan, want Taiwan to be independent.

The status quo is an independent Taiwan in fact, but not in word.

So US policy is to do whatever they can to maintain that status quo.

Which means that provocation is generally a pretty bad idea, unless it is clearly necessary to deter China from moving from status quo to actual invasion.