The China Thread

[crazy canuck]

Good news for China - the central government has decreed that couples are now allowed to have three children each. Unfortunately, many young couples can't afford to have even one child.

My prediction: China will need additional measures to reverse the impending population decline.

Preventing the best and brightest women being taken away by wiley foreigners, for example.

[Jacob]

Preventing the best and brightest women being taken away by wiley foreigners, for example.

Oh she left on her own accord, because China's a shitty place to be good and bright. Turned out okay for me though.

[Tonitrus]

In opposition to the Mono-view...a population decline in China is probably a good thing, but we all know it is hard to do well demographic-wise (to avoid that age cohort imbalance).

[Jacob]

In opposition to the Mono-view...a population decline in China is probably a good thing, but we all know it is hard to do well demographic-wise (to avoid that age cohort imbalance).

Good for whom?

Economically it's potentially going to be a bit of a challenge for China.

[Josquius]

Good for the world.
Most countries would be better off with a smaller population.
The trouble is getting to that situation is very painful.

[Syt]

Good for the world.
Most countries would be better off with a smaller population.
The trouble is getting to that situation is very painful.

BuT eCoNomiC GrOWtH!!!111

[Sheilbh]

BuT eCoNomiC GrOWtH!!!111

More importantly - my pension

[Monoriu]

Obviously the world needs more people.  A lot more.  Humanity needs to expand to meet the expanding needs of the population.  It is central to humanity's mission that we never cease to keep increasing production capacity and efficiency.  A population decline will mean reduced scarcity and nullification of humanity's central mission. 

On China and East Asia, I think one of the problems is that it isn't socially acceptable to have a baby without being married.  I don't have any hard evidence to back this up, but I think it isn't that rare to have a baby without entering into marriage in, say France. 

Say you have two families each bidding for a house or a flat.  Family A has two incomes and no children.  So two income streams, and two mouths to feed.  Family B has a working father, a stay home mother, and two children.  So one income stream, and four mouths to feed.  Family A will almost always out bid Family B, barring exceptional circumstances. 

[The Minsky Moment]

In opposition to the Mono-view...a population decline in China is probably a good thing, but we all know it is hard to do well demographic-wise (to avoid that age cohort imbalance).

A gradual decline is one thing, a rapid and hard crash is another.

[Maladict]

Say you have two families each bidding for a house or a flat.  Family A has two incomes and no children.  So two income streams, and two mouths to feed.  Family B has a working father, a stay home mother, and two children.  So one income stream, and four mouths to feed.  Family A will almost always out bid Family B, barring exceptional circumstances.

How is that unique to China?

[Monoriu]

Say you have two families each bidding for a house or a flat.  Family A has two incomes and no children.  So two income streams, and two mouths to feed.  Family B has a working father, a stay home mother, and two children.  So one income stream, and four mouths to feed.  Family A will almost always out bid Family B, barring exceptional circumstances.

How is that unique to China?

I didn't say it was unique. 

[Valmy]

Yeah only an economic masochist would want to have children. I enjoy pain.

[Tonitrus]

In opposition to the Mono-view...a population decline in China is probably a good thing, but we all know it is hard to do well demographic-wise (to avoid that age cohort imbalance).

A gradual decline is one thing, a rapid and hard crash is another.

Just as I said.

[Tamas]

There's this thing where the first European campus of the Chinese Fudan university is going to be opened in Budapest, as in the case with other Chinese investments in the country, sponsored by Hungarian taxpayers.

To add insult to injury, it is poised to overtake most of an area designated for a "Student Town" where it was meant to build affordable student halls and such, now instead it will host this quite very expensive Chinese state uni.

The affected councils (city and district) are opposition-controlled and of course ain't happy. They have decided to fight back with what's in their jurisdiction - renaming streets and parks in and around the planned campus:
- Dalai Lama Road
- Uighur Martyrs Road
- Free Hong Kong Road

etc

[Jacob]

The affected councils (city and district) are opposition-controlled and of course ain't happy. They have decided to fight back with what's in their jurisdiction - renaming streets and parks in and around the planned campus:
- Dalai Lama Road
- Uighur Martyrs Road
- Free Hong Kong Road

I appreciate the spirit of it