The China Thread

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

and in the process they're destroying the economies of all their enemies. The plan is clear to see

That would be murder-suicide.  The economies of their enemies are the only thing keeping them going right now.

[Syt]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-bans-exports-dual-use-items-military-purposes-japan-2026-01-06/

China bans dual-use goods exports for Japan military over Taiwan remarks

BEIJING, Jan 6 (Reuters) - China has banned exports of dual-use items to Japan that can be used for military purposes, according to a commerce ministry statement on Tuesday, Beijing's latest move in reaction to an early November remark by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi about Taiwan.

Dual-use items are goods, software or technologies that have both civilian and military applications, including certain rare earth elements that are essential for making drones and chips.

'PROVOCATIVE' REMARKS

Ties between Beijing and Tokyo have deteriorated since Takaichi said a Chinese attack on the democratically governed island of Taiwan could be deemed an existential threat to Japan, in a remark that Beijing said was "provocative." China regards Taiwan as part of its territory, a claim that Taipei rejects.

The Chinese foreign ministry later questioned Japan's motives around Taiwan, saying its "provocations" could be a pretext for building up its military forces and overseas missions.

In late December, the Japanese cabinet approved a record spending package for the fiscal year starting in April, including a 3.8% increase in the annual military budget to 9 trillion yen ($58 billion).

In a commentary in December, China's state-run Xinhua news agency said it had been "alarming" in recent years that Japan had "drastically" readjusted its security policy, increased its defence spending year after year, relaxed restrictions on arms exports, sought to develop offensive weapons and planned to abandon its three non-nuclear principles. China's own annual defence budget has more than doubled over the last decade. Japan reaffirmed its non-nuclear pledge in mid-December.

Beijing's statement on Tuesday did not specify which items fall under its new curbs. Around 1,100 items are on China's export control list for dual-use goods and technologies, covering at least seven categories of medium and heavy rare earths such as samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium and lutetium.

Despite Japan's efforts to diversify, China still supplies around 60% of its imports of rare earths, macroeconomic research firm Capital Economics estimates.

"China has not provided a list of restricted items so at this stage it is impossible to say what impact the export curbs will have," an official at the Japan External Trade Organization told Reuters, asking not to be identified because they are not authorised to talk to the media.

A Japanese government source who spoke on condition that they weren't identified called the move "symbolic", adding that: "Until now, China has avoided doing things that would seriously hurt Japan's business community. By taking this step and causing trouble for Japanese industry, they may be aiming to fuel domestic criticism of Takaichi."

China throttled exports of rare earths to Japan during a previous diplomatic dispute more than a decade ago. So far, China customs data have shown no sign of a decline in rare earth exports to Japan, though the data is released with some delay. In November, the latest month for which there was data, exports grew 35% to 305 metric tons, the highest tally last year.

FEARS OF RETALIATION

A Chinese state-affiliated social media blog wrote earlier on Tuesday that China was considering tightening approvals of rare earth export licences to Japan due to Tokyo's "recent egregious behaviour", citing sources with knowledge of the matter.

Some analysts and Japanese firms had feared that China would retaliate by restricting exports of rare earths, essential for Japan's automotive sector, soon after the diplomatic dispute broke out in November.

One Japanese private sector source in Beijing told Reuters on condition of anonymity that it still took a "considerable amount of time" to obtain rare earth export license approvals as of late November, and that many other Japanese firms were in similar positions. But it was unclear whether that was a direct consequence of the diplomatic dispute, they cautioned.

[Josquius]

Saw a  paywalled headline yesterday about China quickly making a drone carrier out of a cargo ship.
The headline of course presented it as a full aircraft carrier being made out of parts.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Saw a  paywalled headline yesterday about China quickly making a drone carrier out of a cargo ship.
The headline of course presented it as a full aircraft carrier being made out of parts.

Saw something similar.

[celedhring]

Saw a  paywalled headline yesterday about China quickly making a drone carrier out of a cargo ship.
The headline of course presented it as a full aircraft carrier being made out of parts.

Is that thing about the Chinese containerizing missile and drone launchers?

More like an auxiliary cruiser on 'roids, I guess.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

I need to track down an actual source, but I have seen pictures of at least one container ship in a Chinese port with various modules on-board.  The two I remember are EMALs for launching drones (didn't see anything for recovery, though, so presumably these are drone-shaped cruise missiles), as well as container TELs for some sort of missile.  I have no context for the pictures, though.

[crazy canuck]

From the Asia Times

Photos emerging since late December show a Chinese medium cargo vessel, Zhongda 79, reconfigured to carry a modular, truck-mounted electromagnetic catapult system capable of launching large fixed-wing combat drones, with the activity centered at Shanghai's Hudong-Zhonghua shipyard. The system consists of multiple heavy trucks locked together to form a scalable launch track, potentially allowing drones weighing up to two tons to be launched without a traditional runway, either from land or from flat-decked merchant ships.

The concept, if operational, could enable the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to disperse airpower across China's vast commercial fleet, complicating adversaries' targeting and expanding drone reach in scenarios ranging from the Taiwan Strait to the Pacific island chains.

The same vessel had earlier been seen carrying containerized missile launchers, radars and close-in weapon systems (CIWS), suggesting a broader experiment with modular, container-based naval warfare.

https://asiatimes.com/2026/01/chinas-drone-carriers-hide-in-plain-sight-among-merchant-ships/

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

I found two SCMP articles with pictures of the ship.  One has a close-up of the TELs extended, the other has a wide shot with the TELs retracted, but shows the other sensor packages on the ship, as well as the drone equipment on the dock.  I can't find a credible source for the picture I saw (which came from Twitter) that purportedly show the system actually mounted on the ship.

[Sheilbh]

CC and I both posted about Dan Wong's book Breakneck (still not read it yet) but thought his very long 2025 was very interesting. Lots to think about in this and instictively agree with a lot of it - not entirely China related but it could go in one of about five ongoing threads right now
https://danwang.co/2025-letter/

[Jacob]

CC and I both posted about Dan Wong's book Breakneck (still not read it yet) but thought his very long 2025 was very interesting. Lots to think about in this and instictively agree with a lot of it - not entirely China related but it could go in one of about five ongoing threads right now
https://danwang.co/2025-letter/

I thought it was very interesting, yes. I see you share his pessimism about Europe (croissant quality in Copenhagen notwithstanding). I think his take on China was quite good.

He's optimistic about the US and Silicon Valley. I'm less so, but then again it's not my job to be. IMO I'm less confident that the current stresses on the US political will be resolved in a way that's non-destructive for US capabilities.

[Sheilbh]

I actually really like his view that basically China and the US are quite similar

Agree on the US - with the caveat that I think it might be destructive to the republic and American democracy but "successful" for the US. A bit like China on that as well, perhaps.

And on Europe - I think Europe still has incredible potential. There is innovation here (the American idea that Europe doesn't innovate is bullshit). But I think his points are pretty accurate and I still don't see any real movement to addressing them.

[Sheilbh]

This is fascinating:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/01/16/world/asia/china-ships-fishing-militia-blockade.html

TLDR recently on at least a couple of occasions thousands of Chinese fishing boats have formed up into formations (basically barriers) hundreds of miles long in the East China Sea:


Not fully clear why and there's no public acknowledgement. From the article, what it would seem this could be used for it feels like maybe a rehearsal of some elements for a blockate of Taiwan. In that image which is about 300 miles long and was in December involving about 2,000 vessels, it does look a bit like lines to block sea lanes with a bit of a gap but that could be re-inforced?

I can't help but think of the recent stuff about the Chinese state installing drone platforms on commercial ships. Obviously they'd seem to be for different things but there seems a similar thought of how to be able to leverage/weaponise everything in the event of a conflict.

Edit: Can't see this on another platform, so apologies, but the video is interesting of the December event:
https://x.com/StarboardIntel/status/2012218993298334163?s=20

[grumbler]

In other China news, the carrier Fujian has returned to its builder's yard and is out of commission. Apparently their new EMALS system is a dud. It was already noted that it never launched its E-2 equivalent AEW and hadn't launched any of its fighters with a full weapons load. Launch cycle times were also were very long.

The suspicion is that the ship's power plant is not capable of operating its engines, sensors, and also operating EMALS at full power.

[mongers]

In other China news, the carrier Fujian has returned to its builder's yard and is out of commission. Apparently their new EMALS system is a dud. It was already noted that it never launched its E-2 equivalent AEW and hadn't launched any of its fighters with a full weapons load. Launch cycle times were also were very long.

The suspicion is that the ship's power plant is not capable of operating its engines, sensors, and also operating EMALS at full power.

What could possibly go wrong with a CV having to shutdown its comms and radars, so it can launch it's aircraft?