The China Thread

[Jacob]

A very senior guy - I think roughly the Chinese equivalent of the head of the CDC - recently stated that the efficacy of the Sinovac vaccine was lower than hoped. Shortly thereafter he retracted the statement, saying it was being "taken out of context."

Now, apparently the Chinese government is allowing the Pfizer vaccine, but unlike Sinovac (which is free in China) people will have to pay for Pfizer vaccines. Anecdotally a very great number of people are willing to pay for Pfizer.

[Jacob]

China Backs Away as Philippines and U.S. Send Impressive Fleet to West Philippine Sea

In a surprising move, the Philippines sent its strongest response yet against China's expansion into the West Philippine Sea. Not since 2012 has the Philippines moved its naval forces to the West Philippine Sea to challenge China's militarization of the area. The move is a highly coordinated response with the United States.

In March, the Philippines reported the presence of 220 Chinese vessels at Julian Felipe Reef. That number has been reduced to fewer than 10 as of April 13.

"The Chinese have blinked," retired U.S. Navy officer Jerry Hendrix told Forbes.
...

Meanwhile, the U.S. also sent its aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt to the area. But an American aircraft carrier never travels alone. With every sighting of a U.S. carrier, you can expect it brings along a large escort of submarines, destroyers, and cruisers protecting it from other vessels. This is on top of the dozens of aircraft it carries (it can carry up to 90 aircraft and can accommodate 4,500 personnel).

The U.S. also deployed the USS Makin Island, a formidable assault ship that can carry up to 20 attack aircraft or stealth strike-fighters. It also has its own escorts of submarines, destroyers, and cruisers.

https://www.esquiremag.ph/politics/news/china-backs-down-a00293-20210416-lfrm

[Valmy]

Well that is certainly something Teddy would have approved of. Very bully big stick there.

But, you know, what happens if the Chinese decide to not blink at some point?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Well that is certainly something Teddy would have approved of. Very bully big stick there.

But, you know, what happens if the Chinese decide to not blink at some point?

the same thing that would happen if we continued to blink in the face of China's provocations, but in a position that'll be -ideally- less advantageous for China.

[Tamas]

Well that is certainly something Teddy would have approved of. Very bully big stick there.

But, you know, what happens if the Chinese decide to not blink at some point?

the same thing that would happen if we continued to blink in the face of China's provocations, but in a position that'll be -ideally- less advantageous for China.

[Valmy]

Well that is certainly something Teddy would have approved of. Very bully big stick there.

But, you know, what happens if the Chinese decide to not blink at some point?

the same thing that would happen if we continued to blink in the face of China's provocations, but in a position that'll be -ideally- less advantageous for China.

Not sure what to do with that. Is war inevitable and we are just jockeying for a good starting position?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Well that is certainly something Teddy would have approved of. Very bully big stick there.

But, you know, what happens if the Chinese decide to not blink at some point?

the same thing that would happen if we continued to blink in the face of China's provocations, but in a position that'll be -ideally- less advantageous for China.

Not sure what to do with that. Is war inevitable and we are just jockeying for a good starting position?

yes

[Jacob]

I don't think war is inevitable. But I don't think there's a clear correlation between being less confrontational with China lessening the chance of war, and being more robust increasing it.

[The Minsky Moment]

Well that is certainly something Teddy would have approved of. Very bully big stick there.

But, you know, what happens if the Chinese decide to not blink at some point?

China knows that the US can't and won't sustain that kind of naval deployment.  They will just keep steadily fortifying and improving the islands and features they have occupied.  Time is on their side.

[Tonitrus]

I don't think war is inevitable. But I don't think there's a clear correlation between being less confrontational with China lessening the chance of war, and being more robust increasing it.

I don't know if war between China and the U.S. is inevitable...but unless either the government in Beijing falls, or Taiwan preemptively surrenders, I think a fight between China and Taiwan is inevitable. 

[Berkut]

China in some ways is an easier to deal with problem then Russia.

China, I believe, is fundamentally "sane" in their approach. They might have hostile priorities and questionable values, but they can be understood if you just understand what they want, and how they think they can go about getting what they want. They are rational.

If we end up in a war with them, I suspect it will be because they decided that war was worth the risk.

[The Minsky Moment]

Rationality has its own dangers and limitations.  China may act rationally but will the US?  Or more to the point, will the US act or react in way that China thinks would be rational for the US.  The Korean War started in part because of rational calculations that the US would not intervene military into such a peripheral theater of competition. It's not too hard to imagine another rational miscalculation of intentions over Taiwan or the South Pacific or Diayou/Senkaku.  China could commit to force calculating that that US interests were too attenuated to risk armed conflict on Chinese terms.  It is ingrained in Chinese thinking that these are core areas of interest for China but of little or limited strategic value of the US.  But such a realist calculation misses the broader issues at stake for the US.

[Berkut]

Rationality has its own dangers and limitations.  China may act rationally but will the US?  Or more to the point, will the US act or react in way that China thinks would be rational for the US.  The Korean War started in part because of rational calculations that the US would not intervene military into such a peripheral theater of competition. It's not too hard to imagine another rational miscalculation of intentions over Taiwan or the South Pacific or Diayou/Senkaku.  China could commit to force calculating that that US interests were too attenuated to risk armed conflict on Chinese terms.  It is ingrained in Chinese thinking that these are core areas of interest for China but of little or limited strategic value of the US.  But such a realist calculation misses the broader issues at stake for the US.

Well, I am not saying I am not worried about war. I am saying I think China is basically reasonably predictable.

In contrast to say, Russia. Putin is NOT predictable, or rather, Russia is not predictable because the shots are being called by someone who actually doesn't give much of a shit about Russia, he just cares about himself.

So you cannot look at the Ukraine and say "Well, this just doesn't make sense for Russia!". Because that might be true, and Putin may not care. Like many a personal dictator before him.

[DGuller]

I think Putin does care about Russia, at the very least Russia is his piggybank.  All his fortune won't be worth much if Russia goes tits up.  I think Russia is just a much more aggressive player than China.  China plays according to the strength of their position, while Russia plays according to the strength of their opponent's position.  It doesn't matter if you have a weak hand if your opponent isn't willing to call your bluff.

[Sheilbh]

I don't think it's rational or whether he cares or not. I think on the global system at the minute - and I can't remember who said this - but Russia basically is an anarchist. They don't want a global system that constrains them or the individuals who have captured the state. I think China has an alternative global rules based system in mind.

At the minute I think there's overlap and by the end of Putin's time in office I expect Russia will be largely part of a Chinese Eurasian sphere.