The China Thread

[Josquius]

Interesting times ahead for China.
On the one hand there's rabid nationalism. On the other there's getting their access to western goods severely disrupted.
Will the lack of H&M finally be enough to get the people to rise up? :p

[garbon]

Also just thinking in terms of Garbon's post it feels like companies may have to start choosing - not because of governmet action (though I think the consumer boycotts in China do seem to have had some state support for the campaign) but because of consumers. Western consumers (and some lawmakers) increasingly have an issue shopping for goods that are partly supplied out of Xinjiang, so there's campaigns like the clean cotton campaign. On the other hand Chinese consumers increasingly seem to have an issue shopping with companies that decide to take a corporate stance on Xinjiang. I'm not sure how long companies will be able to straddle those two markets with any ease - and I think we're only at the start of finding out.

Yeah, hopefully there will be enough pressure from Western consumers to divest from China.

[Jacob]

BBC China correspondent in Beijing has relocated to Taipei following lots of pressure/difficulties. His wife is the RTE correspondent in China who has also been experiencing lots of pressure. Both have reported on Xinjiang, Hong Kong and covid - and have said that basically their safety and safety of their family ended up taking priority.

There are now I think very few western journalists still in China - certainly from English language media. A lot of US journalists were expelled, the Australian networks have pullled out for safety reasons, I think Canadian and UK media companies have now also really reduced their presence.

Yeah, it's a pretty shitty trajectory China is on right now, throwing its weight around and trying to bully everyone, escalating nationalism and domestic repression and so on.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - weirdest thing is I think they were on course to kind of split everyone else so you'd have the US, Canada, UK and Australia on one track and being slightly more aggressive while decoupling the EU. It feels like they may have slightly blown that (I mean maybe not permanently) with their actions against EU think tanks, academics, journalists and politicians. The European Parliament seem a lot more sceptical of the CAI and a number of member states are also seeming a lot more concerned.

[Barrister]

BBC China correspondent in Beijing has relocated to Taipei following lots of pressure/difficulties. His wife is the RTE correspondent in China who has also been experiencing lots of pressure. Both have reported on Xinjiang, Hong Kong and covid - and have said that basically their safety and safety of their family ended up taking priority.

There are now I think very few western journalists still in China - certainly from English language media. A lot of US journalists were expelled, the Australian networks have pullled out for safety reasons, I think Canadian and UK media companies have now also really reduced their presence.

Yeah, it's a pretty shitty trajectory China is on right now, throwing its weight around and trying to bully everyone, escalating nationalism and domestic repression and so on.

Yeah - for the longest time China very deliberately had a policy to not pick any foreign fights, but now they seem to be intent on fighting all countries (diplomatically speaking).

[Jacob]

Yeah - weirdest thing is I think they were on course to kind of split everyone else so you'd have the US, Canada, UK and Australia on one track and being slightly more aggressive while decoupling the EU. It feels like they may have slightly blown that (I mean maybe not permanently) with their actions against EU think tanks, academics, journalists and politicians. The European Parliament seem a lot more sceptical of the CAI and a number of member states are also seeming a lot more concerned.

On the current trajectory, I don't think China is going to be able to split off the EU. They're going to be obnoxious bullies and wear out European patience. That seems to be the only mode of international engagement they have right now.

I mean... Canada? We had zero interest in picking a fight with China and yet here we are.

[Monoriu]

Interesting times ahead for China.
On the one hand there's rabid nationalism. On the other there's getting their access to western goods severely disrupted.
Will the lack of H&M finally be enough to get the people to rise up? :p

People will either obey or move to another place, not rise up 

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Interesting times ahead for China.
On the one hand there's rabid nationalism. On the other there's getting their access to western goods severely disrupted.
Will the lack of H&M finally be enough to get the people to rise up? :p

People will either obey or move to another place, not rise up 

chinese history seems to have it's share of uprisings though. the communists themselves are the result of people rising up...
The CCP-scum know that too, or why else would they have turned China into a giant open air prison/concentration-camp?

[Monoriu]

Interesting times ahead for China.
On the one hand there's rabid nationalism. On the other there's getting their access to western goods severely disrupted.
Will the lack of H&M finally be enough to get the people to rise up? :p

People will either obey or move to another place, not rise up 

chinese history seems to have it's share of uprisings though. the communists themselves are the result of people rising up...
The CCP-scum know that too, or why else would they have turned China into a giant open air prison/concentration-camp?

Well if you look at Chinese history, a lot of revolts were motivated by starvation.  This doesn't apply now.

The Qing dynasty was overthrown because it was clear that China was centuries behind the West and the country was in danger of being colonised/taken over/broken up.  That too doesn't apply now.

The idea of Chinese rising up to demand democracy once they have become middle class has not really been tested.  But so far that theory doesn't really hold up.  Tiananmen was crushed rather easily. 

[Legbiter]

Well if you look at Chinese history, a lot of revolts were motivated by starvation.  This doesn't apply now.

The Qing dynasty was overthrown because it was clear that China was centuries behind the West and the country was in danger of being colonised/taken over/broken up.  That too doesn't apply now.

Yeah the comparison with the Qing works quite well. The Uighurs today call to mind the Mongol Dzungars in the 18th century. Not many of them around today. Northern Xinjiang is still called Dzungaria but that's about it.  The Chinese resettled the area with Kazakhs and, ironically, Uighurs once all the Dzungars were dead or driven off..

[Josquius]

Interesting times ahead for China.
On the one hand there's rabid nationalism. On the other there's getting their access to western goods severely disrupted.
Will the lack of H&M finally be enough to get the people to rise up? :p

People will either obey or move to another place, not rise up 

chinese history seems to have it's share of uprisings though. the communists themselves are the result of people rising up...
The CCP-scum know that too, or why else would they have turned China into a giant open air prison/concentration-camp?

Well if you look at Chinese history, a lot of revolts were motivated by starvation.  This doesn't apply now.

The Qing dynasty was overthrown because it was clear that China was centuries behind the West and the country was in danger of being colonised/taken over/broken up.  That too doesn't apply now.

The idea of Chinese rising up to demand democracy once they have become middle class has not really been tested.  But so far that theory doesn't really hold up.  Tiananmen was crushed rather easily. 

Except it wouldn't be democracy they'd be demanding. It would be the return of their comfortable autocracy with full easy access to consumer goods of the world.
China has bucked the expectations of people demanding democracy as it opens up due to giving so many of these material freedoms: when you have those more esoteric freedoms like democrwacy become less relevant.
But now those are being taken away...

[Jacob]

I don't think the end of the CCP regime is going to come because the populace spontaneously rise up and demand democracy in and of itself. It's possible, but not likely IMO. Rather I think it's going to be a combination of succession struggles going awry and domestic policy failure combined with economic downtown. I'm not saying those things are inevitable, but those are the main risks from the regime's point of view.

Bo Xilai vs Xi was less smooth than previous transitions. Xi has exempted himself from the usual CCP power rotation, which only makes the stakes higher. And frankly, I expect Xi will be about as gracious about giving up power as Trump was if he doesn't hang on for life.

As for domestic policy failure combine with economic downtown - IMO it doesn't have to lead to famine as Mono posits it, just a broad agreement that things have gotten a lot worse and that it's the CCP's fault. If the CCP wipes out all of Mono's retirement savings, f. ex., even he might start feeling animosity towards his masters. The CCP's best defence against this is the manipulation of popular sentiment against external enemies along nationalist lines... which we are, of course, seeing plenty of already.

And, of course, a military conflict where the CCP comes out as losers - especially with a high profile loss of Chinese life and negative economic impact on society at large - is potentially highly destabilizing. So it will be interesting to see how far the CCP is willing to push their current bullying line with their neighbours.

[Monoriu]

Isn't it a bit premature to talk about the end of the party?  They exist and we need to deal with them.  Not day dream about the party's end that may or may not come in the next few decades

[Jacob]

Isn't it a bit premature to talk about the end of the party?  They exist and we need to deal with them.  Not day dream about the party's end that may or may not come in the next few decades

I am comfortable speculating about how it will end, if it ends. I am much less comfortable speculating when. Could be soon, could be in the distant future.

But whenever Xi loses power will be a point of vulnerability, whenever and however it happens.

[Admiral Yi]

Isn't it a bit premature to talk about the end of the party?  They exist and we need to deal with them.  Not day dream about the party's end that may or may not come in the next few decades

You should say "us," not "them."  You are effectively part of the Chinese Communist Party state apparatus.