The China Thread

[Josquius]

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/09/asia/taiwan-us-restrictions-lifted-intl-hnk/index.html

I'm mixed...as I think normalization of relations with Taiwan and rejection of acceptance of the subjecting "one-China" policy is essential, the danger is that doing so part of the death throes of an administration is likely more dangerous than helpful.

If the CCP were to ever think that they needed the right window to move militarily on Taiwan, it is harder and harder to think that right now, or perhaps right after Biden swears in (presuming they have any doubts about improved relations with him in the seat), is that right time.

Indeed. But then the same is true of a lot of trumps behaviour with China.
Obama was already pivoting against China, albeit in a talk nice but carry a big stick sort of way. Skillfully balancing things in the region.
Trump however with his far more bombastic approach and massive escalation may have been on the right path but he made it thoroughly toxic.

[Tonitrus]

I dunno.  Perhaps my biggest worry on Biden's presidency will be the foreign policy front.  Much of that team appears to be from the Obama camp (including his would-be SoS), and despite having more approval from the Euro-crowd, when it came to confronting the bad actors in the world, the Obama administration did not do very well (I think Clinton as SoS was a disaster, and Kerry only benefited by being mostly a non-entity).

I was watching an interview with Antony Blinken regarding Putin not long ago, and the naiveté of their initial thoughts about relations with Russia at that time was palpable.  I just hope that experience was instructive.

[Valmy]

I dunno.  Perhaps my biggest worry on Biden's presidency will be the foreign policy front.  Much of that team appears to be from the Obama camp (including his would-be SoS), and despite having more approval from the Euro-crowd, when it came to confronting the bad actors in the world, the Obama administration did not do very well (I think Clinton as SoS was a disaster, and Kerry only benefited by being mostly a non-entity).

I was watching an interview with Antony Blinken regarding Putin not long ago, and the naiveté of their initial thoughts about relations with Russia at that time was palpable.  I just hope that experience was instructive.

I hope we can get back to ending the conflicts with Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran as I think that for the most part those countries are no threat to us and continuing to waste resources on them is foolish. We know where the trouble comes from: China and Russia, We need to disentangle ourselves from messing with minor countries like Libya and all that.

But even if we, for some stupid reason, still need to hand around in the Islamic world I really have a hard time seeing why we need to continue wasting resources battling impoverished regimes in Latin America.

[Tonitrus]

Venezuela:  I'm iffy on that. We should definitely support the anti-Maduro forces there...but would agree that any kind of direct intervention is unwise.

Cuba: Agree.  The Cuban-exile community needs to get over themselves.  We should definitely push more openness there, but closing them off is counterproductive.

Iran:  Hard disagree.  Iran, while maybe not a threat to us directly, they are very much a bad actor.  And they are not a just a bad actor hiding in their corner...they are working hard at undermining other states in the region (Syria, Yemen, etc.) in order to increase their own power/influence.  We might not like the regimes they're trying to undermine (I'm looking at you Saudi Arabia)...but I still think there is a definite need to confront their shenanigans.

Unfortunately, working against trouble from China/Russia means being involved, in some fashion, in minor countries like Libya (where Russia is actively engaged), because they certainly are.

[crazy canuck]

Iran:  Hard disagree.  Iran, while maybe not a threat to us directly, they are very much a bad actor.  And they are not a just a bad actor hiding in their corner...they are working hard at undermining other states in the region (Syria, Yemen, etc.) in order to increase their own power/influence.  We might not like the regimes they're trying to undermine (I'm looking at you Saudi Arabia)...but I still think there is a definite need to confront their shenanigans.

I am not sure there are any good choices there.  Too many mistakes over the last 100 years.

[Josquius]

Iran let's not forget is rather democratic. Irans actions depend a lot on Irans government. And a West that is looking to mend bridges will do well for Iranian politicians wanting the same.
Iran is probably the most reasonable and workable of the axis of evil

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Iran let's not forget is rather democratic. Irans actions depend a lot on Irans government. And a West that is looking to mend bridges will do well for Iranian politicians wanting the same.
Iran is probably the most reasonable and workable of the axis of evil

People in Iran get to vote, but a democracy it's not. No way the people can get rid of the real powers that be using just their vote. They can't even elect their cadidates of choice because all the ones that might be a danger to the regime get vetted out (if not worse).

[Admiral Yi]

Iran is about as democratic as Hong Kong.

[crazy canuck]

Iran is about as democratic as Hong Kong.

What an odd thing to say

[Barrister]

Iran let's not forget is rather democratic. Irans actions depend a lot on Irans government. And a West that is looking to mend bridges will do well for Iranian politicians wanting the same.
Iran is probably the most reasonable and workable of the axis of evil

Iran has a facade of democracy.

Sure they have regular votes - but anyone overly critical of the regime isn't allowed to run.  And in any event most power is held by the unelected Supreme Leader, not the elected President.

[The Minsky Moment]

Iran is about as democratic as Hong Kong.

What an odd thing to say

Technically pretty correct though.  Elections to select people from slates approved or controlled by the ruling class.
HK is still more liberal and the rule of law is still stronger but trend is not good.

[crazy canuck]

Iran is about as democratic as Hong Kong.

What an odd thing to say

Technically pretty correct though.  Elections to select people from slates approved or controlled by the ruling class.
HK is still more liberal and the rule of law is still stronger but trend is not good.

As you say HK has a long democratic history.  It is has been degraded and we are seeing much more overt control by the communists but simply equating one with the other ignores years of protest and struggle.

[Josquius]

Obviously iran isn't perfect. But we aren't comparing it with Sweden and Germany here. We are comparing it to China and North Korea.
I haven't paid attention to Iran at all in recent years but pre trump it did look to be normalising somewhat. Hong Kong as a comparison only stretches so far. The people above the democracy rely on the same power base.

[grumbler]

Iran is not more democratic than China, in that both have sham elections.  I'd argue that China's government is more representative of what its people want than Iran's is. Irn's government would be much more liberal if it's people had the choice, IMO, while China's would not.  The Chinese urban, educated types are reportedly okay with world domination, even if it means some risk.

[Jacob]

Iran is not more democratic than China, in that both have sham elections.  I'd argue that China's government is more representative of what its people want than Iran's is. Irn's government would be much more liberal if it's people had the choice, IMO, while China's would not.  The Chinese urban, educated types are reportedly okay with world domination, even if it means some risk.

Based on anecdotal observations: there's a sizeable minority of the Chinese middle class who are not okay with the nationalist chauvinism the CCP is peddling. There's a larger proportion who buy it pretty much hook, line, and sinker. And then there's a whole bunch who don't really care that much and only worry about their day to day life.

I would expect if China had open elections right now, various flavours of hard nationalism would do well given the indoctrination everyone's had. But plenty of people question it too... just mostly in private, for reasons that make sense when you live in a place like China.