The China Thread

[The Minsky Moment]

So the current Chinese rumour mill is that Xi recently had brain surgery and that it "went well" meaning he survived. However the metaphor used was "a leaking water pipe fixed with tape." He can do things like stringing eight words together,

Huh so now China has its own Trump

[DGuller]

I have a hard time believing such rumors from highly repressive states.  So often these rumors turn out to be completely baseless.

[Tonitrus]

Does it really matter?  I expect any new boss will be about the same as the old boss.

[Jacob]

I have a hard time believing such rumors from highly repressive states.  So often these rumors turn out to be completely baseless.

Yeah, it could be purely memetic warfare for sure.

On the other hand, listening to "the Chinese rumour mill" put me ahead by about two months when it came to the Coronavirus, and a few days to a week (and more detail) during the Bo Xilai coup attempt when Xi succeeded. So sometimes it turns out to be true.

But yeah, I wouldn't bet any money on any of it. It's more of a hobby really - see what the rumour is and compare it against events later. Which is why I'm posting it here, so I can look back later and go "yeah that was nothing but hot air" or "oh that looks like it was accurate."

[The Brain]

Flex Tape or regular?

[Jacob]

Does it really matter?  I expect any new boss will be about the same as the old boss.

From your perspective, probably not.

But had someone other than Xi succeeded Hu then things might have turned out different in Hong Kong. The shape of the Uighur genocide might have been different too; could've just been garden variety oppression for example. Or worse too, I suppose.

And if Xi loses control now rather than at some point in the future - given his apparent desire to hang on for longer than CCP convention - then there's no guarantee that his successor will have the same combination of intellectual insufficiency, insecurity, and belligerence and that could in fact have a significant impact even if they're from the same faction and has the same policy objectives. And if a potential successor is from a different clique then the policy objectives could change too.

[Monoriu]

Does it really matter?  I expect any new boss will be about the same as the old boss.

From your perspective, probably not.

But had someone other than Xi succeeded Wen then things might have turned out different in Hong Kong. The shape of the Uighur genocide might have been different too; could've just been garden variety oppression for example. Or worse too, I suppose.

And if Xi loses control now rather than at some point in the future - given his apparent desire to hang on for longer than CCP convention - then there's no guarantee that his successor will have the same combination of intellectual insufficiency, insecurity, and belligerence and that could in fact have a significant impact even if they're from the same faction and has the same policy objectives. And if a potential successor is from a different clique then the policy objectives could change too.

Xi succeeded Hu, not Wen.  Wen was premier under Hu, and premier is usually either #2 or #3 

[Jacob]

Does it really matter?  I expect any new boss will be about the same as the old boss.

From your perspective, probably not.

But had someone other than Xi succeeded Wen then things might have turned out different in Hong Kong. The shape of the Uighur genocide might have been different too; could've just been garden variety oppression for example. Or worse too, I suppose.

And if Xi loses control now rather than at some point in the future - given his apparent desire to hang on for longer than CCP convention - then there's no guarantee that his successor will have the same combination of intellectual insufficiency, insecurity, and belligerence and that could in fact have a significant impact even if they're from the same faction and has the same policy objectives. And if a potential successor is from a different clique then the policy objectives could change too.

Xi succeeded Hu, not Wen.  Wen was premier under Hu, and premier is usually either #2 or #3 

Right 

I'll fix it.

[Valmy]

I have a hard time believing such rumors from highly repressive states.  So often these rumors turn out to be completely baseless.

You mean how the actual Vladimir Putin died years ago and the current Putin is a series of doubles under control of the shadowy Russian security state? I don't see anything baseless about that. All facts point to it.

[Admiral Yi]

Xi succeeded Hu, not Wen.  Wen was premier under Hu, and premier is usually either #2 or #3 

Hu's on first?

[Valmy]

Wen's on second. I don't know is on 3rd.

[Admiral Yi]

Wen do they play?

[Valmy]

Wen do they play?

Wen's on second.

[Monoriu]

Wen's on second. I don't know is on 3rd.

Wen's third.  Wu Bangguo, Chairman of the People's Congress, was second.  During Hu's time, premier was #3.  The Politburo Standing Committee has a very strict and clear order.  Everybody knows his place. 

[Valmy]

Wu? That doesn't work at all.