Romney: 47% of Americans are losers, don't care about 'em

[alfred russel]

I'm not sure you understand where I live. Illinois, at the best of times, goes Democrat, and now we're the incumbant's home state. My vote is completely irrelevant in this state. I expect it to be 65/35 Obama, and that's pretty conservative. I wouldn't be the least surprised to see it go 70/30.

And given how loud the extreme views of politics in this country are, no matter who wins, there will be no "honeymoon" period after this election. The extremists will make sure of it. So if I cast my vote for a third party, I'm casting my vote against the extremists in the two major parties - and against the two-party system - which makes me happy. Quite frankly, it's the only way I feel like my vote will matter in the least.

Illinois is included in the popular vote totals still, right?

[Valmy]

Yeah ok Illinois is going to go Obama by a 20%+ margin.

[crazy canuck]

Same. I'll be voting for the Green Party just because it won't matter in the grand scheme, and I like supporting the smaller parties. Obama has Illinois locked up, so why not?

Because in a contested election the popular vote can have a persuasive effect. Al Gore may not have been able to contest Florida to the end if the popular vote didn't go his way. Also, the margin of victory can have an effect on the magnitude and length of a "honeymoon" period for a new president.

I'm not sure you understand where I live. Illinois, at the best of times, goes Democrat, and now we're the incumbant's home state. My vote is completely irrelevant in this state. I expect it to be 65/35 Obama, and that's pretty conservative. I wouldn't be the least surprised to see it go 70/30.

And given how loud the extreme views of politics in this country are, no matter who wins, there will be no "honeymoon" period after this election. The extremists will make sure of it. So if I cast my vote for a third party, I'm casting my vote against the extremists in the two major parties - and against the two-party system - which makes me happy. Quite frankly, it's the only way I feel like my vote will matter in the least.

Meri, all politicians in the US look ahead to the next election - which for some of them comes up fairly quickly if I understand it.  That is why there is an honeymoon period.  Who in their right mind wants to take on a particularly popular president?  One of the reasons politics in your country is so vicious at the moment is because for the last many years it is about a 50/50 split.  If Obama can win in a popular vote pummeling of Mitt things might change - if only for a while.

[Razgovory]

Yeah, voting for the Green party is a good way to demonstrate that you are against extremists.  What has the Nazi party still not recovered from the Blues Brothers coming through?

[alfred russel]

When it comes to data adjustments, the perfect is the enemy of the good.  You can always refine your adjustments, and I'm sure 538 does plenty of that behind the scenes, but even an imperfect adjustment is better than just taking raw numbers and going with them.

If someone gives me a sophisticated discounted cash flow model for a public company that shows a projected stock value, unless it incorporates inside information I'm going to lean toward just using the market value. For all its flaws, I think Intrade gives us a reasonable market value now.

[Valmy]

Illinois is included in the popular vote totals still, right?

Oh for Godsake.

Al Gore may not have been able to contest Florida to the end if the popular vote didn't go his way. Also, the margin of victory can have an effect on the magnitude and length of a "honeymoon" period for a new president.

Yeah?  Well he did not effectively contest the vote in Florida so winning the popular vote did jack and shit.  And I couldn't care less about some honeymoon period.  Generally the policies early in a Presidency are disastrous anyway.  Both of these are pretty poor reasons to vote a way you would prefer not to.

[merithyn]

Illinois is included in the popular vote totals still, right?

So the fuck what? What good does that do? My state's electoral college will go 100% Obama. In the current political climate, the popular vote only counts to help bolster Obama's confidence, not getting his policies passed or affecting true change. Republicans will block everything, anyway, regardless of how convincing a win Obama gets. (Just as the Democrats would do if Romney won.)

My vote will count on my senators and my congressmen. I'll use those wisely. My presidential vote? Wasted ink.

[CountDeMoney]

Meri, all politicians in the US look ahead to the next election - which for some of them comes up fairly quickly if I understand it.  That is why there is an honeymoon period.  Who in their right mind wants to take on a particularly popular president?  One of the reasons politics in your country is so vicious at the moment is because for the last many years it is about a 50/50 split.  If Obama can win in a popular vote pummeling of Mitt things might change - if only for a while.

It'll be more of the same, only more so.  If Obama wins, and the numbers for the Senate races stay the same, the Democrats will keep the Senate and perhaps even break the 60 to beat the filibusters, the Republitards will keep the House due to redistricting, and it'll be business as usual.

That said, it's better than the alternative.

[Jacob]

Just as the Democrats would do if Romney won.

What do you base that conclusion on?

[merithyn]

Meri, all politicians in the US look ahead to the next election - which for some of them comes up fairly quickly if I understand it.  That is why there is an honeymoon period.  Who in their right mind wants to take on a particularly popular president?  One of the reasons politics in your country is so vicious at the moment is because for the last many years it is about a 50/50 split.  If Obama can win in a popular vote pummeling of Mitt things might change - if only for a while.

Obama won't be running again and I don't expect Romney to run again, so it will all be a wash for the next election. This election won't matter. The one that WILL matter will be 2014 election, which will dictate the general attitude of the country as it regards to the Senate and House.

On top of that, there's the hope that we'll be moving out of Illinois and to a state that actually has a voice in who runs our nation.

[CountDeMoney]

On top of that, there's the hope that we'll be moving out of Illinois and to a state that actually has a voice in who runs our nation.

So you want to move to a battlefield state?  Like Nevada?

[merithyn]

Just as the Democrats would do if Romney won.

What do you base that conclusion on?

A general lack of respect for both parties given the lack of actual movement by either party to work together? Granted, I blame the majority of that on the Republicans, but that's because there's a Democrat in the White House. I have a feeling that it would be the opposite if things were flipped.

[MadImmortalMan]

On top of that, there's the hope that we'll be moving out of Illinois and to a state that actually has a voice in who runs our nation.

So you want to move to a battlefield state?  Like Nevada?

Seconded

[merithyn]

On top of that, there's the hope that we'll be moving out of Illinois and to a state that actually has a voice in who runs our nation.

So you want to move to a battlefield state?  Like Nevada?

I'm holding out for Washington, but if not, I'd settle for Pennsylvania. Maybe not true "battlefield" states, but both are just enough uncertain that my vote might matter.

[Valmy]

I have long since accepted the fact that Ed Anger and MadImmortalMan run this country.