Romney: 47% of Americans are losers, don't care about 'em

[Jacob]

A general lack of respect for both parties given the lack of actual movement by either party to work together? Granted, I blame the majority of that on the Republicans, but that's because there's a Democrat in the White House. I have a feeling that it would be the opposite if things were flipped.

There's a pretty strong current in the US of pinning the worst excess of one party on both parties, it seems. I don't know how accurate it is, nor how healthy it is for the political process.

It seems to me that if one party has not done something, it's unfair to assume that they will do it. Conversely, if one party has done something obnoxious, it would seem fair to hold them responsible for it.

And it's just not about fairness. If you don't like a behaviour that one party has exhibited, but you treat both parties as if they've done it, then there's really no downside for the other party to engage in the undesirable behaviour. Conversely, if you (or rather the electorate as a whole) censure the party that actually did engage in the undesirable party while giving the other party some credit for not having done so (even if they had no chance to), then there's an incentive to avoid the undesirable behaviour for both parties.

To my understanding, the Democrats have not been obstructionist to nearly the same level as the tea-party influenced Republicans. Seems to me that they deserve to keep some credit for that until they reach that level (or squander it on something else).

[merithyn]

To my understanding, the Democrats have not been obstructionist to nearly the same level as the tea-party influenced Republicans. Seems to me that they deserve to keep some credit for that until they reach that level (or squander it on something else).

I seem to remember the Democrats doing a bang-up job of working very adamantly against Bush while he was in office, too. 

The thing is, I lean toward the Democratic party in a lot of things because I'm so socially liberal, even though I'm pretty staunchly fiscally conservative. Because of that, I try very hard to see both sides with some objectivity. Yes, I believe that the Tea-Party is doing really dangerous things to the Republican party, there are still a handful of Republican politicians that I think do a decent job.

Ultimately, what gets to me is that in this country, if you're not one party, you're the other. I don't like that. I want to have more legitimate choices. Of course, so long as the money goes the way it does, I don't see it changing anytime soon. Honestly, Jacob, I wish I thought that my opinion - and vote - mattered, but I'm just too jaded now. The system is broken, and my opinion on the matter is irrelevant. I vote because I think it's the right thing to do, but I don't actually believe that anyone gives two shits what my vote will be.

[Razgovory]

They did vote for his war.

[CountDeMoney]

I'm holding out for Washington, but if not, I'd settle for Pennsylvania. Maybe not true "battlefield" states, but both are just enough uncertain that my vote might matter.

  "Pennsylvania" and "vote".  That's a good one.

[Eddie Teach]

So the fuck what? What good does that do? My state's electoral college will go 100% Obama. In the current political climate, the popular vote only counts to help bolster Obama's confidence, not getting his policies passed or affecting true change. Republicans will block everything, anyway, regardless of how convincing a win Obama gets. (Just as the Democrats would do if Romney won.)

My vote will count on my senators and my congressmen. I'll use those wisely. My presidential vote? Wasted ink.

Your vote for Senate and Congressman doesn't matter either. Even the congressional race will probably have over a hundred thousand votes; when you divide the impact of the other guy winning by the chance of your vote affecting the outcome the result isn't worth standing in line for 15 minutes.

OTOH, the feelings one gets from having participated and supported a candidate may well be worth the time. However, that applies whether your guy gets 51% or 70%.

[CountDeMoney]

Ultimately, what gets to me is that in this country, if you're not one party, you're the other. I don't like that. I want to have more legitimate choices.

LOL, "Legitimate" and "choice".  That's a good one.

[Valmy]

Yeah Eddie I always pay the most attention to local elections.  Those often come down to just a few hundred votes and more impact me directly anyway.

[CountDeMoney]

This year, it's not any races in Maryland that are particularly competitive, but the gay marriage initiative is on the ballot.  That'll bring people out to the polls.

[Gups]

On top of that, there's the hope that we'll be moving out of Illinois and to a state that actually has a voice in who runs our nation.

Your vote has an infitesimal chance of making any difference whatever state you are in. Your vote in Illinois 2012 will make exactly as much of a difference and a single vote did in Florida 2000 - zilch.  But if you move to a swing state you will at least get campaigned at, I guess.

[DGuller]

When it comes to data adjustments, the perfect is the enemy of the good.  You can always refine your adjustments, and I'm sure 538 does plenty of that behind the scenes, but even an imperfect adjustment is better than just taking raw numbers and going with them.

If someone gives me a sophisticated discounted cash flow model for a public company that shows a projected stock value, unless it incorporates inside information I'm going to lean toward just using the market value. For all its flaws, I think Intrade gives us a reasonable market value now.

Well, our discussion sidetracked a little.  I was comparing polls to 538, and in that comparison, 538 is just so superior that it's not debatable.  Whether the model is better than a market is a different discussion.  FWIW, I think that the two are not independent:  I think that most Intrade participants are so reliant on the 538 model that insiders with better information aren't going to move the market.  That is the danger of the models in all the markets, IMO.

[Berkut]

Just as the Democrats would do if Romney won.

What do you base that conclusion on?

A general lack of respect for both parties given the lack of actual movement by either party to work together? Granted, I blame the majority of that on the Republicans, but that's because there's a Democrat in the White House. I have a feeling that it would be the opposite if things were flipped.

Even as the resident board super moderate, I actually don't agree with that.

I think the radical right is MUCH more effective at hijacking their party than the radical left ever managed to be.

When things WERE flipped, you did not see Dems saying things that basically amounted to "Letting the country go to hell is an acceptable outcome if it results in getting Bush out of the White House".

You saw some fucked up attitudes (the barely suppressed cheering for the US to fail in the Iraq war for example), but nothing to the extreme that we have seen in the last four years.

[Ideologue]

A general lack of respect for both parties given the lack of actual movement by either party to work together? Granted, I blame the majority of that on the Republicans, but that's because there's a Democrat in the White House. I have a feeling that it would be the opposite if things were flipped.

There's a pretty strong current in the US of pinning the worst excess of one party on both parties, it seems. I don't know how accurate it is, nor how healthy it is for the political process.

In and un, respectively.

[CountDeMoney]

Even as the resident board super moderate,

Snicker.

[merithyn]

Even as the resident board super moderate, I actually don't agree with that.

I think the radical right is MUCH more effective at hijacking their party than the radical left ever managed to be.

When things WERE flipped, you did not see Dems saying things that basically amounted to "Letting the country go to hell is an acceptable outcome if it results in getting Bush out of the White House".

You saw some fucked up attitudes (the barely suppressed cheering for the US to fail in the Iraq war for example), but nothing to the extreme that we have seen in the last four years.

I feel the same way, but I wasn't sure how much of what I felt was colored by my absolute distaste for the Tea-Partiers, so I tried to temper it a bit.

[Razgovory]

Even as the resident board super moderate,

Snicker.

That is cute isn't it?