[AAR] No Retreat - Berkut vs. Tamas

[11B4V]

I hace crushed them time and again, yet no matter how hard I kick the door in, the structure has yet to fall down...

[Solmyr]

That's just what Hitler thought.

[Berkut]

Soviet high command seems to have lost the game file. So no updates today.

[Tamas]

Soviet high command seems to have lost the game file. So no updates today.

I'll resend the replay to you in an hour or so

[Viking]

Thinking this game might be suitable for me and a friend who doesn't like the complex games much and like the idea of being able to finish the game in one afternoon I looked up the game on BGG and looked at the CRT. I was a bit shocked.

First of all for all odds from 3:2 to 4:1 The attacker has the exact same probability of taking a loss (the EXchange result) 1/6. While the "-" is probably not as cool as the DR (retreat) or DS (shattered) the only difference is the taking of the hex or not. It seems that in every case where at least 3-2 odds can be achieved and there is no prospect of encirclment (which turns the DRs and DSs into kill if I understand it correctly).

It seems that going for the 5-1 should be done if possible, but, if it can't be reached going for as many 3-2 attacks as possible seems the sensible thing to do since you might just be getting yourself 3-5 1/3 chances to crack the front rather than 1 5/6 chance to crack the front.

Is that a correct understanding of the game?

[Berkut]

5:1 is very hard for the Germans to achieve after the initial attacks though. MOst SOviet units are 3 or 4, and getting enough Germans together for a 5:1 is not easy - you will have to thin out elsewhere quite a bit.

A CB result is (for the Germans) usually favorable - it means the Soviets will likely have to pull back during their turn, since they generally cannot make an effective attack.

So the 3:2 column has 3/6 "favorable" results, 2/6 that will force a retreat of some kind.

Each colum up from that gives you another 1/6 chance of forcing a retreat. I would not agree that you want to make as many attacks as possible - that is just going to result in more flipped Germans. And that is bad. I don't think you can really go with a "Attack everywhere, see what happens, exploit" kind of strategy most of the time, because you don't have the density needed to exploit wherever you want. The game forces the German to come up with a plan.

Of course, I've played once, so what the hell do I really know?

[Viking]

When do units reflip? What results cause the attackers to flip?

With regards to the 3-2s, I was thinking they should be done when the alternative was to occupy sections of the line.

[Berkut]

Units can flip during the replacements phase at the start of each turn.

The Soviets at the start don't actually have any units with two steps. The Germans have to discard 2 cards for each unit they want to flip though, and cannot take any replacements at all until turn 5.

The only results that cause the attacker to flip are EX, potentially CA.

[Viking]

So, between 3-2 and 4-1 the chances of flipping are identical for the attacker. The only difference between 3-2 and 4-1 is that with the identical chance of failure there is an increasing chance of success.

Whatever, this one seems like fun. /subscribe

[Tamas]

TURN 6 MARCH-APRIL 1942

Not much to tell about this turn except that it was a carnage around Moscow. The initial German offensive North- and Sout-West of the city took Tula once again and eliminated the northern defensive flank of the capital but luckily the Germans couldnt advance there. I had enough units (one new arriving, two replaced) to plug in the holes.

I initially wanted to use my Manpower Reserves card to put two eliminated units in my rail pool but Berkut cancelled that again via Stalin's idiocy. So I had a total of two rebuilt normally (instead of one rebuilt, two special-evented). One was used to cover up the Moscow holes, the other to cover the Crimean flank.

Also, Turn 6 is an important milestone: my units start to gain experience. Each turn I can flip one over to it's improve side. While they remain one-step units until something like 1944, the improved units are a much better mach for their German enemies. First choice for this was sadly obvious: the Volkhov Front became the 3rd Baltic one.

During my turn, Berkut burned 3 cards to have me launch a Counterblow next to Moscow, and have the result rerolled twice, only to realize that he would have to Counterattack both my attackers (I attacked the CB marker on his units with both adjacen units -3rd Baltic in Moscow, and Soutwest which was north of it).

To finish up the turn, I used my Stavka card to claim the top of the discards which was NKVD (hoping to help me defend in the coming german summer offensive), and de-railed the previously rail-moved Moscow garrison just east of Moscow. This was done to discourage an enveloping movement around the capital. Well, at least making sure that it does not succeed in a sungle turn.

Next turn, summer arrives, the steppes open up for rapid German advances. The Soviet agenda is easy: survive until winter sets in.

Edit: here is the end of Turn 6:

[Berkut]

The Germans have decided to put it all in for an effort to take Moscow.

Our first campaign results in massive Soviet casualties, but the NKVD manage to freeze any advance, leaving Moscow empty, but with the Soviet tun coming, sure to be back to a 7 strength defense...

[Tamas]

TURN 7 MAY-JUNE 1942

Just before resolving the German attacks:



The big call for this turn of course was: will Berkut reposition to the steppes to try and recreate Blau? Or keep up the siege of Moscow?

You can see the answer above. He did a lot of repositioning, so a HUGE German force is facing Moscow and its flanks. He also had a stab at getting closer to Leningrad. I intended to counter that, by placing a counterblow marker on my Reserve Front there (the red marker thingie with the arrows). I forfeited the excellent defensive bonuses (mountain behind a river) since a CB is basically the defenders starting movements to provoke a response, but it forced the German 4th Panzer to attack it.

That particular combat ended in an exchange result - not really good, since the pressure there is enormous, I could afford a retreat. A loss? Less so.  But this had the other northern German unit, the 2nd Army left alone, attacking through a river into a forest, and had a counter-attack result, but I had no appetite for a CA with awful odds.

The attack south of Moscow was against my Central front with two infantry armies, and I used my NKVD card to have a random result which did not favor me: my unit was eliminated, but at least the Germans couldnt advance.

The huge assault on Moscow itself was in turn repelled by my play of Russian Tenacity, which makes a German attack on the city an automatic exchange result.

So, the German half of Turn 7 was a standstill, but a very, very costly one for the Soviets. I was out of cards, and 3 units short

[Tamas]

TURN 7 CONTINUED

In my turn, I received two new units and rebuilt 3, so had enough to plug in once again the Moscow holes.

And to cover two other issues:
-the German south if you look at it, was basically a Romanian and a Hungarian army holding the entirety of Ukraine
-Voronezh is a key supply source for both sides and if breached, allows the quick encicrlement of both the northern and southern halfs of the front. It was held by a single unit of mine, with a German unit adjacent, ie. prone to counterblow the city.

For the latter, I place one of the new units (Voronezh Front, hehe) to Saratov, so I can move it in a position where it would ZOC-cover the southern route of possible German advance out of Voronezh. Except that I forgot to move it before sending the file to Berkut for the combat phase.
To his credit, he let me move it afterwards, which was to basically stop him from winning next turn if he manages to counter-attack Voronezh now.
And he had every chance, since he used a cardplay to move a second infantry army next to the city, to the hex of his unit already there, and put a Counterblow marker on it. He also triggered a counterblow south-west of Leningrad.

As for the thing with the Ukraine, I just couldn't resist: for my experience-gaining upgrade, I flipped my recent Crimean Front unit to it's Shock Army side, put my other new unit, the mechanized (albeit weak) Caucasus Front to Rostov, and moved both up next to Dnepropetrovsk, and ordered an attack.

The Shock army compensated for some of the disadvantages of attacking through a river into a city, and the combined Soviet strength was at the end 3:1 to the Romanians. Berkut played a card which made the result a defender's retreat automatically. Dnepropetrovsk was free!

At Voronezh, my forced counterblow attack ended in a German counter-attack, predictibly, but a roll of 1 made that stop with no effect. I do expect the city to fall next turn, however. We shall see.

The counterblow near Leningrad was even luckier for me, ending in a no effect result.

So effectively, Turn 7 ended up to be trench warfare. A great German effort to force a decision at the two capitals was largely stopped, or rather, delayed, by great Soviet sacrifices in men and resources.

[Tamas]

TURN 8 jULY-AUGUST 1942


Major German breakthrough between Voronezh and Moscow! The defenders of Voronezh were cut off from supply, and German play of Kesslerschlacht, or something very similar, made them surrender before I could rescue them.

Beside that there were more pointless massacres around Moscow.


The Soviets were once again forced on the retreat, setting up a defensive perimeter. It got all much more interesting in:

TURN 9 SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 1942

Still clear weather so problems problems problems. The Germans made a grand and sweeping relocation of their forces, unleashing on the south steppes with great prejudice. My Ukrainian forces are in grave danger, but the pressure is noticibly off Moscow. Observer, situation just before German attacks:

[Berkut]

Key points here:

1. If I can win the attack on the unit just to the east of Donnets, I can drive at Stalingrad, and force him to pull back from the Don as well. 3:1 attack, so should work most of the time!
2. If I can wun the battle at Stalino, I can cut off his shock and mech armies that he has over-extended chasing Romanians! And I have the cards to make it happen!
3. Taking Leningrad would be good as well, and I have the siege artillery card, so this is pretty good odds as well!

Shaping up to be a great turn.

Right up until the part where dice start rolling...