GOP Primary Megathread!

[jimmy olsen]

46% in

Santorum: 24.1%
Romney: 23.9
Paul: 21.9
Gingrich: 13.2
Perry: 10.1
Bachmann: 5.7
Huntsman: 0.6

[Ideologue]

Go Santorum!

[Razgovory]

Looks like Santorum hit the sweet spot for the flavor of the month.

[stjaba]

So far I think this is an extremely good showing for Romney.  If he can do well with the crazy Iowa caucus people, he should clean up elsewhere.

The problem is that Republican voters are super-conservative everywhere, not just in Iowa. Look at 2010, where Tea Party candidates won a lot of Republican primaries against moderate opponents across the country- e.g. Christine O'Donnell in Delaware, Rick Scott in Florida, etc.

Keep the conservative vote fractured among several competing candidates and have a favorable calendar of upcoming contests, which Romney has.

Bachmann will drop out soon. If Perry does terrible in South Carolina, he may drop out.

[Phillip V]

So far I think this is an extremely good showing for Romney.  If he can do well with the crazy Iowa caucus people, he should clean up elsewhere.

The problem is that Republican voters are super-conservative everywhere, not just in Iowa. Look at 2010, where Tea Party candidates won a lot of Republican primaries against moderate opponents across the country- e.g. Christine O'Donnell in Delaware, Rick Scott in Florida, etc.

Keep the conservative vote fractured among several competing candidates and have a favorable calendar of upcoming contests, which Romney has.

Bachmann will drop out soon. If Perry does terrible in South Carolina, he may drop out.

Which means Romney won.

[jimmy olsen]

Bachman and Perry's voters will go the next best non-Romney candidate though.

[alfred russel]

Interestingly on intrade, the odds for winning Iowa are:

Romney 55%
Paul 12%
Santorum 33%

Maybe the wackjob areas of Iowa have been disproportionately counted.

[Phillip V]

Bachman and Perry's voters will go the next best non-Romney candidate though.

It will be too late by then, ala McCain 2008.

[jimmy olsen]

Interestingly on intrade, the odds for winning Iowa are:

Romney 55%
Paul 12%
Santorum 33%

Maybe the wackjob areas of Iowa have been disproportionately counted.

When 31% of the vote was in Nate Silver wrote

About half the counties west of Des Moines have yet to report any results, a potentially good sign for Rick Santorum, since he has led the vote in most of western Iowa so far. Southern Iowa, where Ron Paul is running well, has also been slow to report results.

[Eddie Teach]

Why? It didn't happen for Huckabee (who won Iowa by a much larger margin). Fred Thompson stayed in to fracture the conservative vote and thus gave McCain victory in South Carolina.

Fred Thompson wasn't rabid and neither was the Republican primary electorate(they were in power after all). Republicans weren't feeling confident about their chances and McCain's baggage was different than Romney's baggage. I don't think 2008 is the best model for what's likely to happen in 2012.

The reason I suspect supporters of those three candidates will coalesce is that those three candidates are spouting identical rhetoric. They're not enough to win, but there's still a lot up in the air- how quickly people start dropping out, where do Gingrich supporters go, what happens with the Paul faction, etc. 23% is hardly cause for the Romney camp to break out the champagne.

[Phillip V]

Why? It didn't happen for Huckabee (who won Iowa by a much larger margin). Fred Thompson stayed in to fracture the conservative vote and thus gave McCain victory in South Carolina.

Fred Thompson wasn't rabid and neither was the Republican primary electorate(they were in power after all). Republicans weren't feeling confident about their chances and McCain's baggage was different than Romney's baggage. I don't think 2008 is the best model for what's likely to happen in 2012.

The reason I suspect supporters of those three candidates will coalesce is that those three candidates are spouting identical rhetoric. They're not enough to win, but there's still a lot up in the air- how quickly people start dropping out, where do Gingrich supporters go, what happens with the Paul faction, etc. 23% is hardly cause for the Romney camp to break out the champagne.

None of those not-Romney candidates have the organization or money to go for the long-haul, let alone match the Obama machine. Heck, only Paul and Romney made it onto the Virginia ballot. Romney will win New Hampshire in a landslide, and the establishment will line up behind him.

[jimmy olsen]

88%

Rick Santorum 24.6%
Romney 24.5%
Ron Paul 21.1%
Newt Gingrich13.2%
Rick Perry 10.3%
Michele Bachmann 5.1%
Other 1.1%

[Phillip V]

Romney and Santorum currently separated by 45 votes.

[Ideologue]

Ed, go vote!

Oh, wait, Iowa and Ohio aren't the same place.  And yet they are.

[Phillip V]

Romney and Santorum currently separated by 19 votes.