GOP Primary Megathread!

[The Larch]

They won't. I guess they'll read "Republican primaries begin: Candidates A & B on top". You'll be lucky if it is explained somehwhere what the hell a caucus is.

At what point do we need to get Paul and Santorum out of spots one and two before the world realizes we are pyschos? 

Too late, they've already had their profiles and platforms explained. :p

See, another problem for this primary system, it puts the freakshows in the spotlight.

[jimmy olsen]

24% in

23.2% for Santorum
23.2% for Romney
23% for Paul

[Caliga]

Not sure how he feels about having the elderly tranny vote locked up. 

[jimmy olsen]

Nate Silver

The results in Boone County in west-central Iowa, one of the first to report all its votes, help to explain why the contest is so close tonight.

Mitt Romney underperformed his 2008 vote share in the county, taking 17 percent of the vote as opposed to 21 percent. Rick Santorum, although he won the county, did not perform as well as Mike Huckabee did in 2008, taking 30 percent of the vote to Mr. Huckabee's 42.

Imagine that Mr. Romney underachieves his 2008 vote share by 4 points statewide, as he did in Boone County. Mr. Romney would then finish with 21 percent of the vote.

Meanwhile, if Mr. Santorum underperformed Mr. Huckabee's vote share by 12 points statewide, as he did in Boone County, he would finish with 22 percent of the vote.

Everything we are seeing points to an incredibly close finish; I don't think this is a fluke based on the counties that happen to have reported so far.

[jimmy olsen]

No Preference gets 14% in Emmet county. 

[Caliga]

So far I think this is an extremely good showing for Romney.  If he can do well with the crazy Iowa caucus people, he should clean up elsewhere.

[Zoupa]

No Preference gets 14% in Emmet county. 

Awesome 

[Eddie Teach]

So far I think this is an extremely good showing for Romney.  If he can do well with the crazy Iowa caucus people, he should clean up elsewhere.

Except that Santorum/Bachman/Perry people are likely to coalesce around Santorum after this.

[Razgovory]

So far I think this is an extremely good showing for Romney.  If he can do well with the crazy Iowa caucus people, he should clean up elsewhere.

I dunno, people in Iowa don't strike me a particularly crazy.  Corny maybe...

[Phillip V]

So far I think this is an extremely good showing for Romney.  If he can do well with the crazy Iowa caucus people, he should clean up elsewhere.

Except that Santorum/Bachman/Perry people are likely to coalesce around Santorum after this.

Why? It didn't happen for Huckabee (who won Iowa by a much larger margin). Fred Thompson stayed in to fracture the conservative vote and thus gave McCain victory in South Carolina.

[Phillip V]

So far I think this is an extremely good showing for Romney.  If he can do well with the crazy Iowa caucus people, he should clean up elsewhere.

Romney would put states like Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania into play, not to mention many traditional swing states like Florida and Ohio. He is President Obama's most dangerous opponent.

[Caliga]

Romney would put states like Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania into play, not to mention many traditional swing states like Florida and Ohio. He is President Obama's most dangerous opponent.

Yeah, I agree.  Definitely Obama's least favorite choice for the Republican nod.  OTOH Santorum would be a laughable nominee.

[stjaba]

So far I think this is an extremely good showing for Romney.  If he can do well with the crazy Iowa caucus people, he should clean up elsewhere.

The problem is that Republican voters are super-conservative everywhere, not just in Iowa. Look at 2010, where Tea Party candidates won a lot of Republican primaries against moderate opponents across the country- e.g. Christine O'Donnell in Delaware, Rick Scott in Florida, etc.

[alfred russel]

I could rationalize Paul being the nominee as us just being an independent minded country. But Santorum, the guy who promised to die on the hill fighting gay marriage  ...it would be amusing to see if an unpopular president Obama could win all 50 states, but that still wouldn't be worth it.

That said, neither of those guys have much shot to be the nominee. I'm just hoping that tonight Paul doesn't finish third. He is just in this for style points, and it would be too bad if a guy like Santorum knocked him into the also ran category.

[Phillip V]

So far I think this is an extremely good showing for Romney.  If he can do well with the crazy Iowa caucus people, he should clean up elsewhere.

The problem is that Republican voters are super-conservative everywhere, not just in Iowa. Look at 2010, where Tea Party candidates won a lot of Republican primaries against moderate opponents across the country- e.g. Christine O'Donnell in Delaware, Rick Scott in Florida, etc.

Keep the conservative vote fractured among several competing candidates and have a favorable calendar of upcoming contests, which Romney has.