Who will be the Republican Nominee For President?

[DGuller]

What's the Huntsman love based on?  All I know about the guys is a) he's Mormon, b) he was the ambassador to China, and c) he supported ObamaPelosiReidStimulus.

He's a Republican governor who had strong support from Democrats in his state, so presumably he isn't an extremist partisan.  He also recognizes the advances of science achieved after 1350, and is willing to state that recognition openly in Republican debates.

[The Minsky Moment]

  It is the triumph of hope over experience.

That worked out well for the Obama supporters.

Obama had no experience, so there was always the chance it could go either way.

With Gingrich there is plenty of experiece - enough to know to stay away.

[Ideologue]

Yi's gonna owe me like $10,000 in 2024.

You're predicting 1000% inflation starting next year?

At a 1000%, you'd owe me like a billion dollars.

[Sheilbh]

It can only be explained by two factors:

(1) Anti-Mormon feeling; and

(2) Nostalgia for a past time when Republican politicians were reputed to have ideas.

I think personal distaste for Romney too.  As Huckabee said four years ago, he comes across as the guy who fires you rather than the guy you work with.  Empathy matters and Romney is probably the worst politician I've ever seen at that side of things.  He's like the anti-Clinton. 

What's the Huntsman love based on?  All I know about the guys is a) he's Mormon, b) he was the ambassador to China, and c) he supported ObamaPelosiReidStimulus.

He's like Romney without the animal cruelty and other personality issues.  In addition he's been reasonably ideologically coherent and consistent.  He's centre-right. 

I also like the fact that he actually has policies.  His tax plan's quite interesting as opposed to 9-9-9 or Perry's nonsense.

[fhdz]

he actually has policies.

...and therefore is doooooooooooooomed.

[garbon]

Isn't he doomed because most people don't actually know of his existence? It isn't good to be a candidate that people have to look up to learn about.

[fhdz]

Isn't he doomed because most people don't actually know of his existence? It isn't good to be a candidate that people have to look up to learn about.

That's part of it; I was being facetious. Unknowns have to have flash to get noticed, and Huntsman has no flash. He's got a fair bit of substance, but that's not the shiny object voters need to turn their heads.

[Sheilbh]

That's part of it; I was being facetious. Unknowns have to have flash to get noticed, and Huntsman has no flash. He's got a fair bit of substance, but that's not the shiny object voters need to turn their heads.

I think he's started to do well in debates and has lots of ads in New Hampshire.  That's the state he needs to do well in to have a chance anywhere else.

But yeah it's difficult to see how he wins.  Maybe it's just a marker for 2016 - though it's very early personally I think, assuming he doesn't accept the poisoned chalice VP nomination, that could be Rubio's year.

[Admiral Yi]

I also like the fact that he actually has policies.  His tax plan's quite interesting as opposed to 9-9-9 or Perry's nonsense.

Any chance of an executive summary?

There was an article in Time about his plan for campaign finance reform but I skipped it.  Boo-ring.

[Razgovory]

Isn't he doomed because most people don't actually know of his existence? It isn't good to be a candidate that people have to look up to learn about.

That's part of it; I was being facetious. Unknowns have to have flash to get noticed, and Huntsman has no flash. He's got a fair bit of substance, but that's not the shiny object voters need to turn their heads.

There is a grain of truth to saying he's "Doomed" because he has substance.  The GOP has taken a stance of "anything that Obama is for or connected to is bad".  Since Obama is hardly a radical, it means it tars a lot of possible GOP contenders who've had mainstream ideas.  For instance Romny's health care plan should be a feather in his cap and it was to some degree in 2008, but now it's an albatross around his neck.  Newt has the same problem.  And Perry to a less degree (with his vaccine thing).  The GOP base is so worked up and frothing, things they were okay with or even supported pre-2008 are now evil simply by virtue that Obama is in someway connected to them.

[fhdz]

There is a grain of truth to saying he's "Doomed" because he has substance.

Oh, it's more than a grain. It's just not the only reason he's doomed.

[Sheilbh]

Any chance of an executive summary?

Headlines are as follows:
Revenue neutral elimination of all deductions and credits in personal income tax, with replacement of current bands with three bands: 8%, 14%, 23%.
Eliminate AMT.
Something to eliminate double taxation of capital gains and dividends.
Reduce corporate tax from 35% to 25% and move to a territorial system - again I think credits and deductions get eliminated.

There's lots of things to quibble about and I'm sure there's more details but at the least this is a respectable and coherent.  It's basically something Bowles-Simpson suggests but instead of using it to pay down the deficit I think Huntsman uses revenue from that, such as there is, to eliminate other investment taxes.  Again that's detail I haven't really read into.

There was an article in Time about his plan for campaign finance reform but I skipped it.  Boo-ring.

That's one of those weird American things I just don't understand.  And you're right, it's dull.

[fhdz]

That's one of those weird American things I just don't understand.

The notion is that there's an at least partially-correct sentiment among Americans that lobby groups purchase votes. It's seen, not unreasonably, as a problem.

[Sheilbh]

The notion is that there's an at least partially-correct sentiment among Americans that lobby groups purchase votes. It's seen, not unreasonably, as a problem.

Oh I get all that.  We've just got a very different system so I can't really comprehend the money, advert rigamarole of American politics.  It's very alien and not interesting enough to read up on

[fhdz]

It's very alien and not interesting enough to read up on

I believe that.