Who will be the Republican Nominee For President?

[DGuller]

So hard to choose one.

Indeed, it is an embarrassment of riches 

None of this would've happened if your ancestors fought a little better. 

[Razgovory]

Romney.  I've been saying it all year.  It's his turn.

[Ideologue]

Indeed, it is an embarrassment of riches 

You went two words too far.

I know; he lost me right after "Indeed, it".

I think we can all reasonably agree some sort of existence is involved.

[stjaba]

Gingrich is the anti-Mitt of the week.  I still think that Cain will be the last one standing before the Romney victory.

I'd rather see it be Newt, though.

Cain is imploding. He is getting by the media right now. And this year has been a media driven race, as exhibited by the rise of Cain  in the polls despite his lack of organization or name recognition. Today, there are reports that Cain is "reassessing" his campaign amid reports of a 13 year affair. Cain's numbers are dropping also. I wouldn't be shocked if he drops out before Iowa.

I think the race will be drawn out, unfortunately, between Romney, Gingrich, and possibly Perry. Romney and Gingrich will split the early states, so neither will drop out.

What will make this drawn out is that this year Republican primaries will be proportional, as opposed to winner take all. Traditionally, Republican primaries were winner take all. In 2008, McCain basically locked up the nomination by winning Florida, which he won by only a couple percentage points, and Romney dropped out shortly after. In contrast, the Democratic primaries went out forever since each candidate kept picking up delegates. One insight from that election was that Obama won because he dominated the caucuses. Clinton and Obama basically tied the primary/popular vote, but Obama won the nomination because he crushed Clinton in the caucuses due to his superior ground organization. Supposedly, Romney's team is the best organized and the best versed in the delegate count mechanics. That may be his key to victory as was Obama's in 2008.

The other factor is that most of the primaries are not until March. In 2008, Super Tuesday was only 2 weeks after Florida(I think). This year, it will be 5 weeks later. So, there will be plenty of time to recover for candidates who lose Florida.

[DGuller]

What will make this drawn out is that this year Republican primaries will be proportional, as opposed to winner take all.

Really?    I did not know about that.  That makes the situation very different, and it probably doesn't favor Romney.

[MadImmortalMan]

Do the Republicans have superdelegates?

[alfred russel]

Cain is imploding. He is getting by the media right now. And this year has been a media driven race, as exhibited by the rise of Cain  in the polls despite his lack of organization or name recognition. Today, there are reports that Cain is "reassessing" his campaign amid reports of a 13 year affair. Cain's numbers are dropping also. I wouldn't be shocked if he drops out before Iowa.

I think the race will be drawn out, unfortunately, between Romney, Gingrich, and possibly Perry. Romney and Gingrich will split the early states, so neither will drop out.

What will make this drawn out is that this year Republican primaries will be proportional, as opposed to winner take all. Traditionally, Republican primaries were winner take all. In 2008, McCain basically locked up the nomination by winning Florida, which he won by only a couple percentage points, and Romney dropped out shortly after. In contrast, the Democratic primaries went out forever since each candidate kept picking up delegates. One insight from that election was that Obama won because he dominated the caucuses. Clinton and Obama basically tied the primary/popular vote, but Obama won the nomination because he crushed Clinton in the caucuses due to his superior ground organization. Supposedly, Romney's team is the best organized and the best versed in the delegate count mechanics. That may be his key to victory as was Obama's in 2008.

The other factor is that most of the primaries are not until March. In 2008, Super Tuesday was only 2 weeks after Florida(I think). This year, it will be 5 weeks later. So, there will be plenty of time to recover for candidates who lose Florida.

Another interpretation is that Obama dominated the caucuses because he appealed to the most hardcore supporters, as opposed to his organization. Which would seem to also explain how Huckabee won Iowa.

[Sheilbh]

Gingrich is the anti-Mitt of the week.  I still think that Cain will be the last one standing before the Romney victory.

Apparently Huntsman's up to 11% in New Hampshire, which is novel.  Maybe Mitt's so unpopular that even another comparatively moderate Mormon ex-Governor will briefly get to be frontrunner

[Sheilbh]

Really?    I did not know about that.  That makes the situation very different, and it probably doesn't favor Romney.

I don't think it's all states and my understanding is that it's not strictly proportional but based on congressional district.  They've not gone to the same system as the Democrats but they're heading that way.

[stjaba]

Another interpretation is that Obama dominated the caucuses because he appealed to the most hardcore supporters, as opposed to his organization. Which would seem to also explain how Huckabee won Iowa.

That's a valid interpretation, and obviously both organization and enthusiasm were factors.

DGuller,

In 2008, prior to this withdrawal, Romney won almost every Republican caucus besides Iowa. He definitely has the organization and money it takes to win caucuses.

[stjaba]

Really?    I did not know about that.  That makes the situation very different, and it probably doesn't favor Romney.

I don't think it's all states and my understanding is that it's not strictly proportional but based on congressional district.  They've not gone to the same system as the Democrats but they're heading that way.

You're right that not all states are bound to it; just states which vote before April 1, which is over half the states. But there is nothing in the GOP bylaws about congressional districts.

(b) Timing.
(1) No primary, caucus, or convention to elect, select, allocate, or bind delegates to the national convention shall occur prior to the first Tuesday in March in the year in which a national convention is held.  Except Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada may begin their processes at any time on or after February 1 in the year in which a national convention is held and shall not be subject to the provisions of paragraph (b)(2) of this rule.
(2) Any presidential primary, caucus, convention, or other meeting held for the purpose of selecting delegates to the national convention which occurs prior to the first day of April in the year in which the national convention is held, shall provide for the allocation of delegates on a proportional basis.
(3) If the Democratic National Committee fails to adhere to a presidential primary schedule with the dates set forth in Rule 15(b)(1) of these Rules (February 1 and first Tuesday in March), then Rule 15(b) shall revert to the Rules as adopted by the 2008 Republican National Convention.

http://www.gop.com/index.php/news/comments/republican_national_committee_approves_2012_presidential_nominating_process

[Sheilbh]

I think different states are doing different things.  The congressional district thing's old though and just triggers a proportional state going winner takes all:
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/myth-of-republican-presidential-primary.html

[CountDeMoney]

I really, really, really wish it would be Rick Perry, if only so the comedy can last longer.

[Caliga]

Sorry, he loves immigrants and HPV.

[Razgovory]

Do the Republicans have superdelegates?

Nope.