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Are Republicans Turning Into Libertarians?

Started by MadImmortalMan, April 23, 2009, 12:23:55 PM

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dps

Quote from: Sheilbh on April 23, 2009, 07:19:30 PM
White Evangelical (or born agains) form a larger part of the GOP vote than Black or union voters do the Democrats.  I read the survey Silver's talking about with the gay issue.  The problem is that while the Republicans inside the beltway seem to believe that the gay thing isn't a winner any more those outside the beltway overwhelming think it either is or that doesn't matter (only 40% 'insiders' in DC think the GOP should oppose gay marriage, while 60-70% think the party should).  Now I agree the Republicans will eventually reconcile themselves to gay marriage.  Except for a few holdouts, though, I don't think it'll happen for another 5-10 years.

While younger Republicans are overwhelmingly disinterested in gay marriage and generally believe in climate change they still, equally overwhelmingly, are pro-life.  So I don't think that issue's ever going to go away.

I also don't think the Republicans will shift to a libertarian foreign policy view any time soon, and if they do they'll renege on it when they're in office.

And, simply put, I think with the exception of the Sarah Palin option the Ron Paul Libertarian one is the most likely to produce kooks and the least likely to win elections.  I think both styles of conservatism have low ceilings.

Edit: Plus who, on a national scale, would you identify with this strand of the party?  The only one I can think of is Mark Sanford who I think could be a very persuasive candidate.  But that's it.

I don't understand several parts of your post, particularly, "(only 40% 'insiders' in DC think the GOP should oppose gay marriage, while 60-70% think the party should)".  I think you maybe meant 60-70% of the party rank-and-file (or simply, those outside the beltway), but I'm not sure.

And I'm not sure what a libertarian foreign policy would mean.  As best that I can tell, it seems that libertarians are generally non-interventionist, but there are exceptions (and also diferences between those who equate non-interventionist with isolationist and those who don't), and most people are talking about domestic policy when they talk about libertarianism.

Sheilbh

Quote from: dps on April 24, 2009, 09:18:45 PM
I don't understand several parts of your post, particularly, "(only 40% 'insiders' in DC think the GOP should oppose gay marriage, while 60-70% think the party should)".  I think you maybe meant 60-70% of the party rank-and-file (or simply, those outside the beltway), but I'm not sure.
Yeah.  Sorry, I literally meant outside of the beltway.  The poll he's referring to when he says this 'Republican insiders are increasingly uncertain about whether gay marriage, which was such an important issue for the party over 2000-2004, is any longer a winning issue at all for them.' was a poll of party 'insiders'.  Now I assume that means party figures or strategists, or elected officials. 

40% of the ones based in Washington think the GOP should keep shtum about gay marriage, about 40% oppose it and 20% support it.  Those based in the states breakdown to something like 60% oppose it, 30% don't think the party should have a policy and 10% support it (I think a little less, actually).

QuoteAnd I'm not sure what a libertarian foreign policy would mean.  As best that I can tell, it seems that libertarians are generally non-interventionist, but there are exceptions (and also diferences between those who equate non-interventionist with isolationist and those who don't), and most people are talking about domestic policy when they talk about libertarianism.
I think they're generally non-interventionist, I believe in Sanford's few statements on foreign policy take that line.

But you're right about them being associated with domestic policy.  So my question would be are the libertarians taking over the Republican party, or are domestic issues more prominent than at any time in the past 7 years?  I think the latter's true which is why I find the former more difficult to believe.
Let's bomb Russia!

dps

Quote from: Sheilbh on April 24, 2009, 09:29:02 PM
Quote from: dps on April 24, 2009, 09:18:45 PM
I don't understand several parts of your post, particularly, "(only 40% 'insiders' in DC think the GOP should oppose gay marriage, while 60-70% think the party should)".  I think you maybe meant 60-70% of the party rank-and-file (or simply, those outside the beltway), but I'm not sure.
Yeah.  Sorry, I literally meant outside of the beltway.  The poll he's referring to when he says this 'Republican insiders are increasingly uncertain about whether gay marriage, which was such an important issue for the party over 2000-2004, is any longer a winning issue at all for them.' was a poll of party 'insiders'.  Now I assume that means party figures or strategists, or elected officials. 

40% of the ones based in Washington think the GOP should keep shtum about gay marriage, about 40% oppose it and 20% support it.  Those based in the states breakdown to something like 60% oppose it, 30% don't think the party should have a policy and 10% support it (I think a little less, actually).

QuoteAnd I'm not sure what a libertarian foreign policy would mean.  As best that I can tell, it seems that libertarians are generally non-interventionist, but there are exceptions (and also diferences between those who equate non-interventionist with isolationist and those who don't), and most people are talking about domestic policy when they talk about libertarianism.
I think they're generally non-interventionist, I believe in Sanford's few statements on foreign policy take that line.

But you're right about them being associated with domestic policy.  So my question would be are the libertarians taking over the Republican party, or are domestic issues more prominent than at any time in the past 7 years?  I think the latter's true which is why I find the former more difficult to believe.

Oh, I have no doubt that domestic policy is more prominent now than any time since 10 September 2001.  That said, the GOP lost big last year, and it needs to decide what direction it needs to go in.  Whether or not they go in a libertarian direction remains to be seen, but it's a possibility.

Razgovory

Now if Republicans just turned into Fahdiz I suppose that would be okay.  Lock up your daughters though.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Martinus


fhdz

Quote from: Razgovory on April 25, 2009, 12:31:51 AM
Now if Republicans just turned into Fahdiz I suppose that would be okay.  Lock up your daughters though.

:D I'm a one-woman man these days.

And I think I've come to terms with the fact that I've evolved into pretty much a moderate Democrat.
and the horse you rode in on

Norgy

What's with all the evolution these days? It makes it hard to stereotype people.  :mad:

saskganesh

ya well, evolution is not taught in schools, thus it means anything you want.
humans were created in their own image

MadImmortalMan

#53
Quote from: Queequeg on April 23, 2009, 10:50:25 PM

That said, I don't see libertarianism squaring with the batshit Jingonism of Hansmeister or Glenn Beck.  Taxes are needed for military equipment, at the very least.

I was under the impression that both of those guys leaned fairly libertarian. Just not in foreign policy.
"Stability is destabilizing." --Hyman Minsky

"Complacency can be a self-denying prophecy."
"We have nothing to fear but lack of fear itself." --Larry Summers

fhdz

#54
Quote from: Norgy on April 27, 2009, 12:01:26 PM
What's with all the evolution these days? It makes it hard to stereotype people.  :mad:

Meh, ideology's all well and good, but it doesn't Get Shit Done.  A fat, bloated, intrusive government isn't a good thing either, but there's a happy medium...since taxes and government spending aren't going away, as much as Ron Paul would like them to.

I think I just realized that my economic politics are gradually becoming more practical the older I get, while my social politics are pretty laissez-faire.
and the horse you rode in on

derspiess

Quote from: fahdiz on April 27, 2009, 03:54:34 PM
Quote from: Norgy on April 27, 2009, 12:01:26 PM
What's with all the evolution these days? It makes it hard to stereotype people.  :mad:

Meh, ideology's all well and good, but it doesn't Get Shit Done.  A fat, bloated, intrusive government isn't a good thing either, but there's a happy medium...since taxes and government spending aren't going away, as much as Ron Paul would like them to.

I think I just realized that my economic politics are gradually becoming more practical the older I get, while my social politics are pretty laissez-faire.

:o   The End of Librarytarianism?
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

Berkut

Republicans are not turning into Libertarians.

However, if they slide quite a bit further towards libertarianism, that would be a very good thing.
"If you think this has a happy ending, then you haven't been paying attention."

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fhdz

Quote from: derspiess on April 27, 2009, 04:05:44 PM
:o   The End of Librarytarianism?

:D Pretty much.  I'm now kind of on the domestic equivalent of realpolitik.
and the horse you rode in on

Martinus


Ed Anger

Quote from: fahdiz on April 27, 2009, 03:54:34 PM
Quote from: Norgy on April 27, 2009, 12:01:26 PM
What's with all the evolution these days? It makes it hard to stereotype people.  :mad:

Meh, ideology's all well and good, but it doesn't Get Shit Done.  A fat, bloated, intrusive government isn't a good thing either, but there's a happy medium...since taxes and government spending aren't going away, as much as Ron Paul would like them to.

I think I just realized that my economic politics are gradually becoming more practical the older I get, while my social politics are pretty laissez-faire.

Welcome to the the practical club. OBEY THE RULES.
Stay Alive...Let the Man Drive