Bachmann running neck and neck with Romney in Iowa

Started by jimmy olsen, June 27, 2011, 08:41:13 AM

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jimmy olsen

June 27, 2011, 08:41:13 AM
God help us! :bleeding:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/06/27/6956158-first-thoughts-bachmanns-turn-for-overdrive
QuoteBy NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg

*** Bachmann's turn for overdrive: More than two weeks ago, we said it was important to take a Michele Bachmann campaign seriously, and the new Des Moines Register poll of likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers backs that up. According to the survey, Mitt Romney (at 23%) is running neck-and-neck with Bachmann (22%), followed by Herman Cain (10%), Newt Gingrich (7%), Ron Paul (7%), Tim Pawlenty (6%), and Rick Santorum (4%). Bachmann couldn't have wished for better news to set up her official announcement, which she makes today from Waterloo, IA at 10:00 am ET. And surprisingly, the poll overshadowed Sarah Palin's stop in Iowa on Tuesday, which had the potential of overshadowing Bachmann's day today. Bachmann has one good problem: She's peaking early. Can she keep it up? And keep this in mind: Bachmann is doing this without the so-called MSM; in fact, she's even doing it without FOX News (whose Chris Wallace asked her yesterday if she was a "flake").

*** Rough news for Pawlenty: If the poll is great news for Bachmann, it's bad news for Pawlenty -- who has put so much effort into Iowa. (Do note, however: The poll was conducted before his TV advertising in the state began.) The Des Moines Register survey, on top of the rough two weeks he's had after the New Hampshire debate, has to hurt fundraising (more on that below). On "TODAY" this morning, Pawlenty responded that these early polls aren't always good predictors. "If they were, we'd have Hillary Clinton as president," he said, noting that Mike Huckabee was at 4% in the poll at this point in the '08 cycle. "We still have plenty of time."

*** Romney the strong front-runner: And then we come to Romney. He's now out in front in both Iowa (barely) and New Hampshire (overwhelmingly). Yes, he's vulnerable. But he's just not the front-runner; he's a STRONGER front-runner than many in Washington will believe. Then again, the last three strong front-runners in the summer before the nominating contests were Howard Dean (2004), Hillary Clinton (2008), and Mitt Romney himself (2008). The one bad piece of news for Romney in the Des Moines Register poll: It takes away his ability to make a surprising finish in the Hawkeye State, even if he decides not to play in the caucuses. And given his 52%-38% fav/ufav among likely caucus-goers (compared with Bachmann's 64%-12% score and Pawlenty's 58%-13%), he doesn't have much more room for growth. In fact, he's just the second choice of 10% of likely caucus-goers.
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*** On the 2012 trail: Romney's in New Hampshire, holding events in Salem and Concord... Santorum's in Iowa... And Huntsman raises money in California.

*** Going negative early: On Friday, the Karl Rove-founded Crossroads GPS group announced it was launching a $20 million TV ad campaign aimed at President Obama, including a $5 million buy that begins today. Is there ever a bad time to spend $20 million? However, you could argue that this is a coming a little early. Does it have the ability to numb the public -- especially in the battleground states -- if we head down this negative path so early?

*** Obama to meet with Reid and McConnell (separately) to discuss the debt ceiling: Away from the presidential campaign trail, the big story remains the debt-ceiling talks. Obama and Vice President Biden meet with Senate Majority Leader Reid at 10:30 am ET, and then they meet separately with Senate Minority Leader McConnell at 5:00 pm. McConnell, per his office, will tell the president that raising taxes has to be off the table. Democrats, of course, want to cut oil subsidies and raise taxes on the very rich. And there does appear to be some wiggle room, but not much. McConnell aide Don Stewart wouldn't say if raising taxes on those making $1 million a year, for example, is completely off the table. Instead, he said Democrats want hundreds of billions in new revenues and, "You can't get there with the easy stuff," he said.

*** Are defense spending cuts the path to compromise? But maybe they can get there will cuts in defense spending. The Washington Post: "As President Obama prepares to meet Monday with Senate leaders to try to restart talks about the swollen national debt, some Republicans see a potential path to compromise: significant cuts in military spending. Senior GOP lawmakers and leadership aides said it would be far easier to build support for a debt-reduction package that cuts the Pentagon budget — a key Democratic demand — than one that raises revenue by tinkering with the tax code. Last week, Republicans walked out of talks led by Vice President Biden, insisting that the White House take tax increases off the table." Defense cuts are a possibility, says Michael Steel, a spokesman for House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH), who is going to play a key role in the final outcome of a debt-limit deal. "Boehner has always said that there's waste at the Pentagon, just like the rest of the government," Steel told First Read before adding, "Tax hikes on small businesses are definitely off the table."

It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
--------------------------------------------
1 Karma Chameleon point

Viking

#1
June 27, 2011, 08:44:04 AM
Chris Matthews called this on Bill Maher two weeks ago.
First Maxim - "There are only two amounts, too few and enough."
First Corollary - "You cannot have too many soldiers, only too few supplies."
Second Maxim - "Be willing to exchange a bad idea for a good one."
Second Corollary - "You can only be wrong or agree with me."

A terrorist which starts a slaughter quoting Locke, Burke and Mill has completely missed the point.
The fact remains that the only person or group to applaud the Norway massacre are random Islamists.

Valmy

#2
June 27, 2011, 08:53:46 AM
Don't worry Tim I will show up at the Texas Republican Caucus long after Bachmann has the nomination wrapped up and cast a protest vote for Pawlenty.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Caliga

#3
June 27, 2011, 08:59:08 AM
Seems like Republicans will elect anyone, as long as she's a MILF now. :blush:
0 Ed Anger Disapproval Points

Valmy

#4
June 27, 2011, 09:01:16 AM
Quote from: Caliga on June 27, 2011, 08:59:08 AM
Seems like Republicans will elect anyone, as long as she's a MILF now. :blush:

But really are we supposed to take seriously these fucking polls for things months out?  Once all the zillions of dollars gets wasted catering to these people who knows who the fickle Iowans will pick?
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Faeelin

#5
June 27, 2011, 09:03:39 AM
Iowa has a strong social conservative bunch, and she's a native Iowan. Why is this surprising?

Scipio

#6
June 27, 2011, 10:05:26 AM
Seriously.  If she's nominated, the GOP deserves to lose.  She's worse than Palin by miles.  She's a religious nut fascist.
What I speak out of my mouth is the truth.  It burns like fire.
-Jose Canseco

There you go, giving a fuck when it ain't your turn to give a fuck.
-Every cop, The Wire

"It is always good to be known for one's Krapp."
-John Hurt

Valmy

#7
June 27, 2011, 10:07:11 AM
Quote from: Scipio on June 27, 2011, 10:05:26 AM
Seriously.  If she's nominated, the GOP deserves to lose.  She's worse than Palin by miles.  She's a religious nut fascist.

She will not win.  The GOP machine is stronger than people give it credit.  They will find a Republican governor...who is hopefully not Rick Perry.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Razgovory

#8
June 27, 2011, 10:07:51 AM
That is surprising.  I thought the Republicans were better then that.  I was (and am still) afraid that Rick Perry could get the nomination.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Valmy

#9
June 27, 2011, 10:10:33 AM
People have got to understand how irrelevent the Texas Governor really is.  George W Bush's primary job was getting legislators to sit down and have a beer and work out their differences (which, incidentally, he was fantastic at) and somehow people thought that meant he had all this experience with governing.

Rick Perry is not even a quarter as good a governor as GWB was and that should be all you need to know.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Caliga

#10
June 27, 2011, 10:24:18 AM
Quote from: Valmy on June 27, 2011, 10:10:33 AM
Rick Perry is not even a quarter as good a governor as GWB was and that should be all you need to know.
Yeah, but he looks "cool" and "Presidential", so that should be all you need to know. :cool:
0 Ed Anger Disapproval Points

Scipio

#11
June 27, 2011, 10:27:37 AM
Too bad Haley Barbour's not in there.  Then he could be running redneck and neck with Bachmann...
What I speak out of my mouth is the truth.  It burns like fire.
-Jose Canseco

There you go, giving a fuck when it ain't your turn to give a fuck.
-Every cop, The Wire

"It is always good to be known for one's Krapp."
-John Hurt

alfred russel

#12
June 27, 2011, 11:00:29 AM
Quote from: Valmy on June 27, 2011, 10:07:11 AM
Quote from: Scipio on June 27, 2011, 10:05:26 AM
Seriously.  If she's nominated, the GOP deserves to lose.  She's worse than Palin by miles.  She's a religious nut fascist.

She will not win.  The GOP machine is stronger than people give it credit.  They will find a Republican governor...who is hopefully not Rick Perry.

Well lets look at the polls:

Romney 23%
Bachman 22%

Okay, so Bachman is neck and neck, but as we get closer will the voters tend toward the insane choice (Bachman) or the not insane but spineless Romney?

Cain 10% - Even more insane the Bachman, give these voters to Bachman
Gingrich 7% - Wow, how is he at even 7%? Give it to Romney
Paul 7% - Insane, but these voters go down with their ship; neither
Pawlenty 6% - LOL, losing to Gingrich? Romney
Santorum 4% - Last place and gay marriage in NY. Poor guy, Bachman

Totals:
Romney: 36%
Bachman: 36%
Paul: 7%

I don't think Republican primary voters can be trusted to make a wise decision here. Remember these are the guys that gave us Angle in Nevada and that crazy lady in Delaware.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

Razgovory

#13
June 27, 2011, 11:37:27 AM
Quote from: Scipio on June 27, 2011, 10:27:37 AM
Too bad Haley Barbour's not in there.  Then he could be running redneck and neck with Bachmann...

Boss Hog is to smart to run.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Jacob

#14
June 27, 2011, 03:37:53 PM
Rolling Stone had an article on her: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/michele-bachmanns-holy-war-20110622?page=1

Obviously a bit biased. What's the view of our languish Republicans and Independents of Bachmann? How good or bad is she? Does she have a chance?
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