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Who the hell is an immigrant?

Started by Slargos, April 27, 2011, 07:36:46 AM

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Slargos

Quote from: grumbler on April 27, 2011, 12:03:56 PM
Quote from: Slargos on April 27, 2011, 11:24:47 AM
That quip aside, I think the basic foundation of Malthus' argument is self-evident even if some of the conclusions he draws are erroneous.
No, because the foundation of his argument is that population grows exponentially and resource production grows linearly.  He failed to understand what the Industrial Revolution was doing to the production of resources and goods.  Not his fault; he had inadequate data.

Ditto for Ricardo.

The writings of these two created the motivations behind most social thinking of the Nineteenth century, though, so I can see why the Nineteenth Century Sweden of today would still teach this stuff as though it were accurate.

The industrial revolution and subsequent technological progress only delays the problem, they don't make it go away.

The Brain

The dotcom revolution will pick up the slack.
Women want me. Men want to be with me.

Slargos

Quote from: The Brain on April 27, 2011, 12:09:08 PM
The dotcom revolution will pick up the slack.

By transferring our consciousness into a machine you say? Thus taking food production out of the equation, and focusing on powerproduction which would be functionally limitless? An interesting vision.  :hmm:

Timmay, your thoughts please?

Ancient Demon

Regarding pre-industrial societies, Malthus was absolutely correct. For post-industrial societies, it is not the increased production which makes the theory untrue (indeed it would just delay the problem), rather the cultural changes that let to more people voluntarily limiting the size of their families.
Ancient Demon, formerly known as Zagys.

Barrister

Quote from: Ancient Demon on April 27, 2011, 12:43:05 PM
Regarding pre-industrial societies, Malthus was absolutely correct. For post-industrial societies, it is not the increased production which makes the theory untrue (indeed it would just delay the problem), rather the cultural changes that let to more people voluntarily limiting the size of their families.

It wasn't even so much the cultural changes, as the medical/pharmacological changes that easily allowed people to voluntarily limit the size of their families.
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

Slargos

Quote from: Ancient Demon on April 27, 2011, 12:43:05 PM
Regarding pre-industrial societies, Malthus was absolutely correct. For post-industrial societies, it is not the increased production which makes the theory untrue (indeed it would just delay the problem), rather the cultural changes that let to more people voluntarily limiting the size of their families.

I've already stated as much. Social and technological evolution has averted the problem for now. However, this social progress has not taken place in the second and third world, and it has certainly not taken place in a vacuum. It relies on resource extraction from outside the West and Western economies as they look today will certainly not be able to survive the evolution of overcrowded third world countries into first world.

Regardless, as long as you have population growth, you're eventually going to run into the wall. Unless of course the wall can be moved.

grumbler

Quote from: Barrister on April 27, 2011, 12:55:28 PM
Quote from: Ancient Demon on April 27, 2011, 12:43:05 PM
Regarding pre-industrial societies, Malthus was absolutely correct. For post-industrial societies, it is not the increased production which makes the theory untrue (indeed it would just delay the problem), rather the cultural changes that let to more people voluntarily limiting the size of their families.

It wasn't even so much the cultural changes, as the medical/pharmacological changes that easily allowed people to voluntarily limit the size of their families.
It wasn't even the medical/pharmacological changes that easily allowed people to voluntarily limit the size of their families as it was the cultural changes that made them want to do so.  Specifically, the education of women.
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

Josquius

#52
On topic: Jus soli FTW.
Or the Swedes can get the fuck out of Norrland and go back to Skåne.
Or hell, Russia, or wherever it is the indo-europeans originally come from.

Quote from: Slargos on April 27, 2011, 12:08:06 PM
The industrial revolution and subsequent technological progress only delays the problem, they don't make it go away.

So they said. In the early 20th century worries about over population and starvation were growing again....cue: the green revolution.
Then in the 70s and 80s once again there were worries about over population and food shortages, as shown in some scifi of the time like soylent green. The veggie food-crap Quorn was developed at great expense during this period in order to provide cheap plentiful protein to the starving millions at the turn of the millenium....except of course that never happened, again we managed to get our production levels up.
It just keeps happening. People worry and we overcome the problems. With population predicted to level off and decline this century I don't see Malthus ever being proven right.
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HVC

Food shouldn't be an issue until we run out of cheap fertilizer sources... which i don't know when that is :unsure:
Being lazy is bad; unless you still get what you want, then it's called "patience".
Hubris must be punished. Severely.

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: Ancient Demon on April 27, 2011, 12:43:05 PM
Regarding pre-industrial societies, Malthus was absolutely correct.

That is not really so either, which is why certain pre-industrial societies were able to achieve average levels of affluence well above subsistence.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

The Brain

People worry a lot about the smallest things. They easily forget that just 70 years ago we were fighting a huge war to protect our way of life against blood-crazed regimes that were anathema to any decent human being. The death toll ran into the tens of millions. And we lost!
Women want me. Men want to be with me.

HVC

Being lazy is bad; unless you still get what you want, then it's called "patience".
Hubris must be punished. Severely.

Razgovory

Quote from: Ancient Demon on April 27, 2011, 12:43:05 PM
Regarding pre-industrial societies, Malthus was absolutely correct. For post-industrial societies, it is not the increased production which makes the theory untrue (indeed it would just delay the problem), rather the cultural changes that let to more people voluntarily limiting the size of their families.

Actually, he was incorrect.  The two major population declines in the West were not caused by Malthusian catastrophe but by plague.  Severe famine did break out in the 14th century, but did not cause the population to decline greatly.  Major declines in population may have occurred in other parts of the world for reasons stated by Malthus, but I don't really know much about their history so I can't say.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Malthus

I just can't catch a break with this crowd.  :(
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane—Marcus Aurelius

PDH

I have come to believe that the whole world is an enigma, a harmless enigma that is made terrible by our own mad attempt to interpret it as though it had an underlying truth.
-Umberto Eco

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"I'm pretty sure my level of depression has nothing to do with how much of a fucking asshole you are."

-CdM