[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[crazy canuck]

If, on the other hand, the market is driven by a genuine cultural liking for house ownership, if the market goes down people won't sell in droves - because they still like owning houses. It is more likely to lead to a 'soft landing'.

Yeah, the pattern we've seen in Vancouver this last decade or so is that once prices start coming down two things happen:

1) Fewer people put their houses/ condos on the market - they live in them and are in no hurry to move.

2) More people come to market, now that prices are down a bit, feeling that they're no longer priced out (or rather, I think, looking to get more house for the money they're ready to spend).

... this has tended to stop prices from going down too much for too long, as demand increases while supply shrinks.

Personally, I think for some sort of "burst" moment we'll need to see more people selling once prices come down. A significant interest rate increase could trigger that, as mortgages become unaffordable for people, as could various calamities. But I don't think it's something that's going to happen just because a bunch of people wake up in a different mood one day.

As I understand it, housing prices are fairly "sticky" going down.  Even in Calgary right now (which is an economic disaster zone) prices have declined very little.  What happens is people are either underwater on their homes (they owe more than the home is worth) so they can't sell, or emotionally they don't want to sell for less than what they paid for it.  So they sit in their homes.

In order for significant price declines you need foreclosures.  Which is where interest rates come in.  When interest rates rise, and suddenly people can't renew afford their mortgage, or banks refuse to renew (because the home is worth less than the mortgage), then you're going to see significant price declines.

There are a couple of problems with your theory.  first, you assume that when interest rates rise "suddenly" people wont be able to afford their mortgages.  I am not sure why you are making that assumption.  A small amount of the population has purchased their properties at these high values.  Of that small percentage at least some percentage will be able to afford their mortgages at higher interest rates.  The rest will likely have to sell but I doubt that will have much of an impact on the overall market.

The main effect of a higher interest rate is will likely be slower price increases and perhaps even modest price decreases.  Your prediction of a bubble bursting would make a lot more sense if there was a bubble caused by speculation.  But all the evidence suggests that the price increases are being driven by real demand, not speculators.

[Josephus]

Kevin Vickers: Vigalante. This guy's awesome

http://globalnews.ca/news/2723433/ottawa-shooting-hero-kevin-vickers-tackles-protester-at-ireland-remembrance-ceremony/

[Josephus]

As it turns out we didn't even get one year of balanced budgets under the Tories

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/ottawa-did-end-last-year-in-the-red-with-official-tally-showing-liberals-inheriting-2-billion-deficit

[Agelastus]

As it turns out we didn't even get one year of balanced budgets under the Tories

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/ottawa-did-end-last-year-in-the-red-with-official-tally-showing-liberals-inheriting-2-billion-deficit

"In September of last year — one month before the national election that brought the Liberals to power — the Finance Department revised its 2014-15 fiscal position to a $1.9-billion surplus from the previous $2-billion-deficit reading."

You think the "Finance Department" was lying then when they made the revision for 2014/15 listed in the article and quoted above?

It's also pretty explicit in the article that the figure for 2015-16 is not the final figure; moreover, given it has been driven into the red by the last month alone one has to wonder how accurate the current figures are for that month are.

[HVC]

Kevin Vickers: Vigalante. This guy's awesome

http://globalnews.ca/news/2723433/ottawa-shooting-hero-kevin-vickers-tackles-protester-at-ireland-remembrance-ceremony/

i love that he's the ambassador to Ireland and he's jumping up to grab protestors lol

[crazy canuck]

As it turns out we didn't even get one year of balanced budgets under the Tories

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/ottawa-did-end-last-year-in-the-red-with-official-tally-showing-liberals-inheriting-2-billion-deficit

Says the headline, but the headline writer didn't read the article very well.

But, he added, "the issue of whether the Liberal government inherited a deficit is a bit tougher to assess. One needs to consider how much of the overrun is the result of the new government spending after the election."

[PRC]

Kevin Vickers: Vigalante. This guy's awesome

http://globalnews.ca/news/2723433/ottawa-shooting-hero-kevin-vickers-tackles-protester-at-ireland-remembrance-ceremony/

i love that he's the ambassador to Ireland and he's jumping up to grab protestors lol

I think it's great, the guy is fully "Facta non verba".  I have read some criticism of his actions though, diplomats top priority should be discretion type of thing and a "what would the reaction in Canada be if we saw the Chinese ambassador take out a Tibetan protestor. 

[Barrister]

So the Liberals have given in somewhat on electoral reform: the Parliamentary committee no longer has a Liberal majority.  Instead it's 5 liberals, 3 Conservatives, 2 NDP, and one each for the Greens and BQ.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wherry-electoral-reform-committee-1.3612377

Still resisting on holding a referendum.

Interesting to see what results from this.  The Liberals are giving up control over the process.  Which is a good thing, but also makes their timeline even more unlikely.

So where are the parties generally at in terms of electoral reform?  The Liberals just promised "change", though Trudeau has commented on ranked voting (which would tend to support the centrist Liberals).  The Conservatives only official position is "change must be by referendum", but I think it can be assumed that they would push for the status quo.  NDP's support mixed member proportional system.  Green Party's platform was merely to "end first past the post", but was mostly silent on what to replace it with.  The Green Party's results though, with 3.5% of the vote and 1 seat, would seem to make them want proportional representation.  And the BQ?  Who the hell knows.

So with the committee as it is, will there be any sort of majority that can be pieced together?

[Jacob]

I think it's pretty clear that the Conservatives are pushing for "change must be via referendum" as they are against any changes to the current system, and a referendum provides the best chance for preventing change.

[Barrister]

I think it's pretty clear that the Conservatives are pushing for "change must be via referendum" as they are against any changes to the current system, and a referendum provides the best chance for preventing change.

Since electoral reform has been voted down every time there has been a referendum that seems pretty safe.

[viper37]

Massive sinkhole in Ottawa

[viper37]

ISIS is not committing genocide.  In any case, it is not the role of the Canadian government to condemn local cultural practices.
Oh wait!  They are doing a genocide!  Let's condemn it!

What a silly, silly, silly government.

[Barrister]

Liberals pushing ahead changes to the Anthem:

"In all thy sons command" is to become "In all of us command".

No sir, I don't like it.

[Malthus]

Liberals pushing ahead changes to the Anthem:

"In all thy sons command" is to become "In all of us command".

No sir, I don't like it.

It's nice to see, in this dangerous world, that they can concentrate with laser-like focus on the really important issues of the day. 

[Barrister]

The more interesting story that's going on is Trudeau's unintended consequences in the Senate.

If you'll remember Trudeau kicked all senators out of his caucus, making them all independents.  He's also promising a new appointment process where senators will be independent of the party process.

Now the senate has always been undemocratic and illegitimate, and Senators knew it.  As a result they never stood up to the sittign government.  But now with so many independents running around, it shouldn't come as a surprise when they're acting independently.  The government is butting heads with the Senate now over assisted dying, and may as well over the anthem.

What do you guys think?