[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[saskganesh]

There could be a number of things at work.  You could have a rising population.  You could have an increase in criminality.  You could have overactive legislators and/or Machiavellian law-enforcers criminalizing everything.

Given Alberta's past, I have to assume that that undecideds are going to break pretty heavily for the PCs, but a minority government might be alright.  Except of course that it would probably have to tilt to the right to gain the support of the Wild Rose, which would mean devastating public finances. 

OK. I think the PC's still have the incumbency advantage, so that low information voters may just decide to go with a more familiar name. And the NDP might not have the foot soldiers to door knock hard and bring out the vote in ridings where they are not that organised or established. But of course, they have the backing of many Liberals and Greens, while uniquley, the right is split between the PCs and Wild and Crazy Rose.

It's all soupy and from my armchair seat it's pretty fun to watch.

[saskganesh]

Hi Guys.

Just a drive-by, but ... Alberta?? What the hell??

You have been missed

Norgy and BB hunted me down. I figured it would be rude not to show up sometime.

[Neil]

There could be a number of things at work.  You could have a rising population.  You could have an increase in criminality.  You could have overactive legislators and/or Machiavellian law-enforcers criminalizing everything.

Given Alberta's past, I have to assume that that undecideds are going to break pretty heavily for the PCs, but a minority government might be alright.  Except of course that it would probably have to tilt to the right to gain the support of the Wild Rose, which would mean devastating public finances. 

OK. I think the PC's still have the incumbency advantage, so that low information voters may just decide to go with a more familiar name. And the NDP might not have the foot soldiers to door knock hard and bring out the vote in ridings where they are not that organised or established. But of course, they have the backing of many Liberals and Greens, while uniquley, the right is split between the PCs and Wild and Crazy Rose.

It's all soupy and from my armchair seat it's pretty fun to watch.

Yeah, I think the NDP has a real geographic disadvantage, just because their vote is so heavily concentrated.  I was hoping for an NDP minority, but I don't think it'll happen.

[Grey Fox]

BB better get ready to eat an hat & live with an NDP majority government.

[Barrister]

I'm starting to crack.

Wildrose seems strong in the rural areas, but weak in Edmonton.  In particular I haven't seen a single election sign, nor a single piece of election literature, for my local Wildrose candidate.

I just might have to strategic vote for the PCs. 

[Neil]

I've seen some Wildrose signs in my riding, although only on public property.  All the yard signs are pretty heavily NDP or Liberal, with the PCs making up the rest.

I'm wavering.  The thought of an NDP majority, without any check, seems worrisome to me.

[Barrister]

I've seen some Wildrose signs in my riding, although only on public property.  All the yard signs are pretty heavily NDP or Liberal, with the PCs making up the rest.

I'm wavering.  The thought of an NDP majority, without any check, seems worrisome to me.

You should be worried.

Threehundredandeight is bullish on an NDP majority.   

[Neil]

I just can't see how that can happen, given the undecideds that will swing Tory and the fact that pollsters are always wrong these days.

That said, I don't know which I'm more worried about:  An NDP majority or a PC-Wildrose coalition.

[Grey Fox]

308 is bullish on an NDP majority.

Tooclosetocall is calling it a sure thing.

[Barrister]

I just can't see how that can happen, given the undecideds that will swing Tory and the fact that pollsters are always wrong these days.

That said, I don't know which I'm more worried about:  An NDP majority or a PC-Wildrose coalition.

Well you don't have to worry about the latter.  If the NDP doesn't get a majority, it won't miss by much, and they have to be given the opportunity to govern. 

Plus, since both Prentice and Jean were in the Conservative caucus in 2008 I'm sure both have good sound bites in media vaults against coalitions against a bigger party.

[Barrister]

308 is bullish on an NDP majority.

Tooclosetocall is calling it a sure thing.

Tooclosetocall has a 96% chance of an NDP government, 80% chance of it being a majority.

[Malthus]

308 is bullish on an NDP majority.

Tooclosetocall is calling it a sure thing.

Tooclosetocall has a 96% chance of an NDP government, 80% chance of it being a majority.

Have you got an edible hat all picked out? 

[Grey Fox]

Have fondant one commissioned ASAP.

[Barrister]

Yeah, the latest polls are even more strongly in favour of the NDP.  308 pointed out that in 2012 there were no polls the last week ofthe campaign, which explains how pollsters missed the shift against Wildrose.

I guess I'm back to voting Wildrose.  Not going to make a difference, so I might as well vote with my conscience.

Heaven help us - an NDP government.

[MadImmortalMan]

Where did the term riding come from? Were election districts decided based on how far you could go on horseback?