[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Barrister]

I may be getting my beer.   

With 18 days to go until Albertans vote, the polls are painting a bleak landscape for a party that has been in power for more than 40 years. A poll released on Wednesday sampled 3,121 people and found the Wildrose Party and the NDP arm-locked in the lead, each with 24 per cent of the voters, while the PCs came in third at 18 per cent

We shall see.

There was a similar dynamic in 2011 though where polls up until the end had Wildrose leading until voters pulled back on election day and stuck with what they knew.  Notley (NDP leader) does seem to be running a competent campaign.

[Josephus]

I might move there if the NDP wins.

[Barrister]

I may eat my hat if the NDP wins.

[Monoriu]

I may eat my hat if the NDP wins.

I'll mentally curse the NDP.  Hope that helps

[Neil]

The NDP is geographically impaired.  They might garner strong support in Edmonton, but that's only worth a third of the seats.

[Monoriu]

The NDP is geographically impaired.  They might garner strong support in Edmonton, but that's only worth a third of the seats.

While I don't know who the good guys are in Canadian politics, the NDP have always been the bad guys.

[Neil]

I'm waiting to see their stance on provincially-funded in-vitro treatments.

[crazy canuck]

Thoughts on the Federal Budget?  My main concern is that they delayed the budget for a number of months to take into account the drop in oil prices but the budget doesn't reflect the change in economic circumstances or how best to address them.

[Malthus]

My thought is that they are trying as hard as they can to bribe me, personally, to vote for them.   

Income splitting, TFSA limit increases - these work for me, while doing nothing for lower-income folks.

[Neil]

If only the opposition wasn't so wretched...

[Barrister]

Alberta election: Jim Prentice fights Tory ghosts, while opponents fight for face time
'Can we picture Brian Jean as premier? Can we picture Rachel Notley as premier?'
CBC News Posted: Apr 22, 2015 11:33 AM MT Last Updated: Apr 22, 2015 11:33 AM MT

CBC political panel weighs in as Alberta leaders prepare for the only televised debate of the campaign set for Thursday night.

Jim Prentice is fighting to emerge from the shadow of Tory governments past.

His two main opponents are fighting their own battles, to step out the shadows and grab a share of the spotlight.

That's how a CBC political panel see things shaping up as the leaders prepare for the only televised debate of the campaign set for Thursday night.

With two weeks left before the May 5 election, the NDP and Wildrose face similar problems, said Mount Royal University political science professor Duane Bratt.

'Who else is the NDP?'

"People may know Rachel Notley quite well," Bratt told CBC's Mark Connolly Wednesday. "And they may know Brian Mason and a couple of the other MLAs. But who else is the NDP?

"Do people even know who Brian Jean is? Forget about who the rest of the Wildrose candidates are. These are tremendous edges that the PCs have had in the past, and they continue to have."

Panelist Doug Griffiths, a former PC cabinet minister who is not running for re-election, said with polls showing high numbers of undecided voters, Wildrose support appears to be weak.

Those who are angry at the governing Tories may still be vacillating about which alternative they want to back instead, he said.

"Brian Jean has some political experience. But most everyone else on that team has none. I think that's a big factor."

Notley doesn't have to worry about losing votes in the coming days, Griffiths said, because she has "incredible" support as a leader, and loyal support among those voters who have told pollsters they have no intention of changing their minds.

Bratt said people angry at the PC budget tabled last month, and at the legacy of former premier Alison Redford, will now ask themselves key questions.

'Can we picture Brian Jean as premier?'

"Do we want a change in government? Can we picture Brian Jean as premier? Can we picture Rachel Notley as premier? Those are the sorts of questions that are going to go on in the minds of people Thursday night."

Bratt said he thinks the Tories suffered their worst day on the campaign trail Tuesday, when former deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk broke ranks and came out in favour of higher corporate taxes, and the Tories reversed themselves on tax credits for charitable donations.

Paula Simons, a columnist for the Edmonton Journal, said the worst moment for the Conservatives so far came on Monday when trustees from 19 school boards came together to denounce cuts to the education budget.

"I've never seen that, in my whole time as a political writer in Alberta," Simons said. "To see that kind of unanimity of voice, speaking out in criticism of the government. It was astonishing."

Griffiths pointed to another moment, when six Tory cabinet ministers held a news conference to criticize the Wildrose budget.

"I think there's maybe a bit of fear in the ranks," he said, referring to the Tories.

Simons said she stopped by Stephen Mandel's campaign headquarters recently to talk to the candidate about the school board protest. The office, she said, was filled with signs that should already be planted on supporters lawns.

"To me, that seem like a metaphor for things," she said. "I mean, the big blue machine has all the money and all the manpower, but they don't seem to have any ground game this election. At least, not in Edmonton."

Simons said a leader in Jean's shoes would normally be at a huge disadvantage.

'That should terrify the Tories'

"People don't know who Brian Jean is from a hole in the ground," she said. "He's been the leader of the party for less than three weeks. That should be a terrible disadvantage."

But instead, the fact that Jean is a "blank slate" has given the Wildrose the luxury of a leader no one has smeared.

"Think what a metric that is of how angry voters are at Jim Prentice and the conservative government," she said. "That they're willing to say that they will vote for — they don't even know who it is — somebody who isn't Prentice.

"And that should terrify the Tories."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/alberta-election-jim-prentice-fights-tory-ghosts-while-opponents-fight-for-face-time-1.3044030

[Neil]

People definitely want a change in government.  The problem is that people really shouldn't be able to picture Jean is premier, and the Wildrose would likely be a move for the worse.  As a city-dweller, the Wildrose has absolutely nothing in their platform to appeal to me, and it's impossible to trust them.  And while I might actually be able to picture Notley as premier, I definitely don't want that to happen.  It's a tough situation in Alberta.  If you hold your nose and vote for Prentice, probably the overall best candidate, you're also saying yes to the same pack of thieves who have been getting more and more brazen.

[crazy canuck]

My thought is that they are trying as hard as they can to bribe me, personally, to vote for them.   

Income splitting, TFSA limit increases - these work for me, while doing nothing for lower-income folks.

Yeah, they have tried to mute the opposition to income splitting by claiming that it is only available to middle/low income earners.  But if you are able to take advantage of it....  As for the TFSA limit increase there are very few people who can take advantage of current limits.  I haven't seen a good argument why the limits need to be increased - other than making sure people like us remain in the top 1%.

The budget doesn't address the main concerns I have.  As Neil said, it is a shame the opposition is as it is.

[Barrister]

People definitely want a change in government.  The problem is that people really shouldn't be able to picture Jean is premier, and the Wildrose would likely be a move for the worse.  As a city-dweller, the Wildrose has absolutely nothing in their platform to appeal to me, and it's impossible to trust them.  And while I might actually be able to picture Notley as premier, I definitely don't want that to happen.  It's a tough situation in Alberta.  If you hold your nose and vote for Prentice, probably the overall best candidate, you're also saying yes to the same pack of thieves who have been getting more and more brazen.

Yes.  Prentice has the best resume to be Premier - by a lot.  Prentice held a series of high profile cabinet positions in Ottawa.  Brian Jean was a backbench MP.  Notley was an opposition MLA, and previously worked as a Labour Lawyer.  Her primary claim to fame was being a former leader's daughter.

But Prentice has not impressed this observer since his return.  First his conduct in gutting Danielle Smith and Wildrose, then breaking the fixed election date law.  And finally, for being a "conservative" his answer is to significantly raise income taxes.

So I'm putting my chances in the unknown Jean.  He hasn't done anything that would cause him to lose his vote, and has shown competent political instincts.

[Neil]

In a province where your tax rates are far below every comparable jurisdiction in the country, it's not 'unconservative' to think that you might have a problem, especially when your revenue is structured in such a way that when oil prices are below $80/bbl, you're forced to dismantle the government.  I reject the idea that a conservative should always struggle to starve the government to death.  And of course, as a conservative, I find the idea of a fixed election law in our Westminster system to be utterly nonsensical.