[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[crazy canuck]

We have had a relatively minor bunker oil spill from the fuel tank of a grain transport ship in the Vancouver inner harbour.  Should not have been a big deal.  What it has turned into a public relations and political perception nightmare for the Federal Government and anyone wishing to build new pipelines to transport oil from Alberta for shipment out of our ports.

The problem for the Federal government is that after the spill was reported it took hours for the Coast Guard to respond with booms to contain the spill.  As a result what should have been an easily contained leak which should have taken a matter of hours to clean has spread widely within the inner harbour and has taken a couple of days to deal with.  All of this is happening in a stretch of water that literally hundreds of thousands of voters look at or are near every day.

It is likely that the spill will cause no or very little damage to the environment as it is likely all of the spill will have been removed by the end of today.  But there will likely be significant political damage.

[crazy canuck]

So the NDP actually has a shot.

Who knows, but I would think not.

Now Alberta has always been a small-c conservative place, but that doesn't mean it's 100% right wing.  We certainly have our left-wing elements (particularly in Edmonton aka Redmonton back in my Reform Party days).  Whomever is on the left will get some votes, be it the Liberals (currently down) or the NDP (currently up).  But they've never, ever seen significant support outside of Edmonton.

It seems to me there are two types of voter who are disillusioned with the PCs.  The hard right types who cling to the belief that things like a flat tax are good public policy.  Those types will support Wild Rose.  But viewing this from afar it also looks like the core support of the PCs is more moderate.  If not there would have been no need to create a right wing alternative party.  If enough of those moderates can be convinced that the NDP offer better policies than the PCs then this could become a very interesting election. 

The election has some resemblance to the election we had over 20 years ago when the long ruling Social Credit party was destroyed and the NPD took power.



With those percentages if it looks like Wild Rose might win that might convince enough moderate voters who are  might otherwise have voted PC to vote NDP. 

[Valmy]

Wild Rose sounds like some kind of ultra-catholic Virgin Mary cult.

[Barrister]

Wild Rose sounds like some kind of ultra-catholic Virgin Mary cult.

It's named after our much-beloved provincial flower (which also makes an appearance on our license plates):



Though I gotta say - my old house by the lake had a bunch of wild roses growing in the bushes, and those are some tough thorny plants.

[Valmy]

Is it the party that speaks for ethnic Albertans? Eh I guess not since Neil hasn't joined.

[Barrister]

So the NDP actually has a shot.

Who knows, but I would think not.

Now Alberta has always been a small-c conservative place, but that doesn't mean it's 100% right wing.  We certainly have our left-wing elements (particularly in Edmonton aka Redmonton back in my Reform Party days).  Whomever is on the left will get some votes, be it the Liberals (currently down) or the NDP (currently up).  But they've never, ever seen significant support outside of Edmonton.

It seems to me there are two types of voter who are disillusioned with the PCs.  The hard right types who cling to the belief that things like a flat tax are good public policy.  Those types will support Wild Rose.  But viewing this from afar it also looks like the core support of the PCs is more moderate.  If not there would have been no need to create a right wing alternative party.  If enough of those moderates can be convinced that the NDP offer better policies than the PCs then this could become a very interesting election. 

The election has some resemblance to the election we had over 20 years ago when the long ruling Social Credit party was destroyed and the NPD took power.



With those percentages if it looks like Wild Rose might win that might convince enough moderate voters who are  might otherwise have voted PC to vote NDP.

I dunno - you guys had a history of electing NDP governments.  Alberta does not.  As I said, the NDP has very little support outside of Edmonton itself.  And the PCs have definitely tacked left under Prentice (what with their platform of major tax hikes and no cuts in spending).  Not sure that gives the NDP a lot of policy space.

[crazy canuck]

So the NDP actually has a shot.

Who knows, but I would think not.

Now Alberta has always been a small-c conservative place, but that doesn't mean it's 100% right wing.  We certainly have our left-wing elements (particularly in Edmonton aka Redmonton back in my Reform Party days).  Whomever is on the left will get some votes, be it the Liberals (currently down) or the NDP (currently up).  But they've never, ever seen significant support outside of Edmonton.

It seems to me there are two types of voter who are disillusioned with the PCs.  The hard right types who cling to the belief that things like a flat tax are good public policy.  Those types will support Wild Rose.  But viewing this from afar it also looks like the core support of the PCs is more moderate.  If not there would have been no need to create a right wing alternative party.  If enough of those moderates can be convinced that the NDP offer better policies than the PCs then this could become a very interesting election. 

The election has some resemblance to the election we had over 20 years ago when the long ruling Social Credit party was destroyed and the NPD took power.



With those percentages if it looks like Wild Rose might win that might convince enough moderate voters who are  might otherwise have voted PC to vote NDP.

I dunno - you guys had a history of electing NDP governments.  Alberta does not.  As I said, the NDP has very little support outside of Edmonton itself.  And the PCs have definitely tacked left under Prentice (what with their platform of major tax hikes and no cuts in spending).  Not sure that gives the NDP a lot of policy space.

Our "history" with the NDP before Social Credit collapsed was that an NDP government was elected for one term in very similar circumstances to what I now see in Alberta.  The coalition of moderate and right wing voters had broken down and the NDP were able to win.  The same thing happened when the Social Credit was finally destroyed. 

You might be right about the PCs occupying NDP policy ground.  But it may be that if given the choice between a PC party they have come to despise and a change to an NDP government they just might give the NDP a chance.  That is what happened here.

[Barrister]

I am willing to lay a hefty wager the NDP will not win this election.

[crazy canuck]

I am willing to lay a hefty wager the NDP will not win this election.

Ok if the NDP wins, the next time you are in town, you owe me a beer.  If they don't win, the next time you are in town, I will treat you and your wife to a restaurant you will not soon forget.

[Barrister]

I am willing to lay a hefty wager the NDP will not win this election.

Ok if the NDP wins, the next time you are in town, you owe me a beer.  If they don't win, the next time you are in town, I will treat you and your wife to a restaurant you will not soon forget.

Done.

I should warn you, Mrs B and I have talked about taking off for a weekend in Vancouver one of these days...

But on the other hand, why won't you ever make it out to Edmonton?

[Malthus]

But on the other hand, why won't you ever make it out to Edmonton?

Why would anyone? 

[ducks, runs]

Anyway, any one of you is welcome to a dinner on me, if you make it out to Toronto ... the Centre of the Universe(tm) 

[Ed Anger]

Wild Rose sounds like some kind of ultra-catholic Virgin Mary cult.

Or a bum wine.

[Josephus]

But on the other hand, why won't you ever make it out to Edmonton?

Why would anyone? 

[ducks, runs]

Anyway, any one of you is welcome to a dinner on me, if you make it out to Toronto ... the Centre of the Universe(tm) 

I never got a dinner on you. 

[viper37]

But on the other hand, why won't you ever make it out to Edmonton?

Why would anyone? 

[ducks, runs]

Anyway, any one of you is welcome to a dinner on me, if you make it out to Toronto ... the Centre of the Universe(tm) 

I never got a dinner on you. 

he's only offering for people who most likely won't take him up on the offer.  Cheap bastard.  Worst than Mono!

[Josephus]

Or you need to be a part of the Lawyers Cabal