[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Jacob]

.

I wonder if CC... is going to remain consistent in applying it to the NDP as well.

Sometimes you can be a real jerk.

My apologies, it wasn't my intention. I just wanted to make clear that I was interested in your answer, even though Neil was addressing the question as well.

[Jacob]

Fuck you.

Jeezus CC, are you having a bad day or something? I'm not casting aspersions here or having a go at you.

This is how I imagined the conversation would go:

Me: "So naturally, when some NDP member introduces a flaky private bill you won't hold that against that party or its leader."
You: "Naturally."
Me: "Cool, that's what I figured."

I'm not impugning your integrity or consistency or anything like that. I was merely intending to confirm what I expected, to firm up my understanding of the significance of private members' bills and having something to refer back to if (when) some individual NDPers put some flaky stuff on the agenda.

[crazy canuck]

Of course Jacob's question was entirely hypothetical.  From Wente's piece in the Globe today:

Some NDPers are under the illusion that after the miracle of 2011, they actually have a shot at power. This is a fantasy. They stumbled into Official Opposition because Quebeckers loved Jack Layton and the Liberals fell apart. This confluence of circumstances will never be repeated. Today's progressives are in the same position conservatives were in 1993, only worse. It took only a few years for warring members of the right to overcome their distaste for each other and start talking about uniting again. The Liberals and New Democrats are far more tribal. Until they get over it, they don't have a chance. Otherwise, as the NDP's Pat Martin told The Hill Times last week, "Stephen Harper will be Prime Minister until he gets bored."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/margaret-wente/the-new-democrats-have-no-shot-kumbaya/article2377125/

[Jacob]

I expect you're right. I don't think the NDP has a shot at forming a government in the foreseeable future unless their next leader has his shit together and manages the party to the same extent as I assumed Harper does the Conservatives AND, simultaneously, the Liberals mismanage their own party. So it's a long shot by far. I figure the NDP equivalents of this abortion/fetus bill would be enough of a sign that the NDP doesn't have its shit together enough to succeed, even should the Liberals continue to stumble (which is why I was so intent on confirming that private members' bills don't matter, even from the NDP).

It's much more likely that the NDP and Liberals will continue to squabble, the Bloc surges back eroding the NDP again and Harper continues in charge for the foreseeable future. The end of the Conservative government, whenever it is, will likely follow the traditional Canadian narrative - infighting between internal Conservative factions (possibly because Harper is retiring at that point) combined with a slow accumulation of the kind of minor arrogance and corruption that comes with being in power, leading to the populace in general being bored or disenchanted with the Conservatives and swinging back to the Liberals who'll have been more or less uncontroversial for the last however many years since they've been out of power. Whether that's in the next election or twenty years in the future, that's how I expect it to go.

Should the Libs and NDP try some sort of merger to unite the not-right, that'll take at least five years to sort out I imagine.

[Neil]

While it would certainly create one unified bloc to fight the Tories, a merging of the Liberals and NDP would be less than the sum of their parts.  Pragmatic centrist Liberals would become Tories, while the insane wing of the NDP would probably take over the Greens in their effort to escape legitimacy and responsibility.

[Jacob]

While it would certainly create one unified bloc to fight the Tories, a merging of the Liberals and NDP would be less than the sum of their parts.  Pragmatic centrist Liberals would become Tories, while the insane wing of the NDP would probably take over the Greens in their effort to escape legitimacy and responsibility.

You're probably right.

[Malthus]

God, you talk like a lawyer sometimes, Malthus. 

This is, at base, a legal-type question. Wrongdoing is alleged and evidence is offered. What I'm saying is that the evidence doesn't sound convincing on its face (though I admit I have no idea about the maths used).

How can someone know that wrongdoing had a particular impact, if you can't know how much of it occured and there are plenty of non-wrongdoing causes that could have been responsible?

Well, if the maths are done correctly then they can. That's the whole point of controlling for variables in stats, isn't it?

How can meaningful stats be based on, well, nothing? If all that exists is unknown numbers of alleged calls?

I'm not seeing how any meaningful control of variables can occur.

[Jacob]

How can meaningful stats be based on, well, nothing? If all that exists is unknown numbers of alleged calls?

I'm not seeing how any meaningful control of variables can occur.

You probably know more about stats than I do, so I don't have much of an answer.

[viper37]

I thought the conservatives got rid of the gun registry.
[/quote]
Yes, it's a thing of the past, but only recently.

[Josephus]

Since we're tossing out Globe and Mail articles.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/canadians-trust-ndp-to-govern-poll-finds/article2378536/

and this:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/john-ibbitson/ndp-ties-tories-in-popular-support/article2377342/

[Neil]

The death of Layton has had a JFK-like effect on him and his party.  Once a new leader gets them back to their program of calling for the dismantling of Western civilization, their appeal will wane, especially since none of their leadership candidates are especially charismatic.

[CountDeMoney]

.

I wonder if CC... is going to remain consistent in applying it to the NDP as well.

Sometimes you can be a real jerk.

Now, now.  You have your moments as well.

[crazy canuck]

Now, now.  You have your moments as well.

True that

[crazy canuck]

Josephus, the fact that the NDP poll well says more about the fact the Libs are still in the wilderness and that any protest vote against the Conservatives is going to go to the NDP.  It is also not surprising that there is a protest vote early in a majority mandate on the eve of a budget designed to reduce government spending.

In BC we will (barring a miracle) be electing the socialists next year.  It will be long term pain for this province but it will save the country because it will be a good reminder of how bad it can get given the fact that the NDP here are probably the most ideologically driven bunch anywhere.

[Jacob]

 

I haven't been following BC politics recently. What's the current crop of NDPers like? Better or worse than average?