[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Josephus]

To be fair to Layton though, if he supported this budget, he would be seen as selling out. See, now that's a PRINCIPLE. Even if it means losing seats and losing his job, he's gonna see this through. There is little in this budget, other than a few pieces of gristle, that the NDP would support; so he's not going to support it. Good for him, even if it's the last thing he does.

[Malthus]

What annoys me is that, even after years in the wilderness, the Libs simply don't have their act together. They just don't. That bodes badly for this election. The most likely (and possibly best) outcome is another Conservative minority, with Iggy being dumped and the libs, finally, getting their game on. In short, that the next election will be the "real" election.

Worst case? Conservative majority, allowing the cons to get just as complacent and corrupt as the libs used to be - there are worrying signs already in that direction. It seems part of the natural life cycle of Canadian politics that some party get imbedded into power like a tick on a dog's balls, grow increasingly corrrupt, and then spectacularly implode - to make way for another party to do the same ...

[Grallon]

Bloc - maybe they think the arena non-funding in QC is enough for them to make headway (plus is there any residual effect from the whole coalition fiasco where the Conservatives railed against an alliance with sepratists)?

Contrary to the hysteria that went on in Canada when this scenario was alluded as a possibility, a significant proportion of Quebecers quite liked the idea of a coalition; true defenders of Quebec's interests forming a govt with others to rule Canada - sort of a win-win situation for many.




G.

[Grey Fox]

Bloc - maybe they think the arena non-funding in QC is enough for them to make headway (plus is there any residual effect from the whole coalition fiasco where the Conservatives railed against an alliance with sepratists)?

The Bloc wanted 2.2 Billion for Quebec in the TPS/TVQ harmonization issue.

After this election, Maxime Bernier will be the last Cons in Quebec.

[viper37]

What is the conservatives polling at?

34% everywhere but in Quebec, I believe.

Try reversing that number.  Latest poll was 43%, by Eikos.

[Grallon]

After this election, Maxime Bernier will be the last Cons in Quebec.

Which is quite telling considering the guy's a moron.



G.

[Grey Fox]

After this election, Maxime Bernier will be the last Cons in Quebec.

Which is quite telling considering the guy's a moron.



G.

He's a county superstar. Dude gets elected with ~62% of the vote.

[viper37]

This feels a bit contrived to me.  There is no burning issue to go to the polls over.  It seems to me the Liberals motivation is to see if Iggy will sink or swim and if he sinks to move on to another period of party "renewal".  I have no idea what Layton's motivation is.  The NDP will lose seats. The conservatives can't be all that unhappy because they have a shot at a majority or the status quo.  I dont know enough about politics within Quebec to know what the Bloc is thinking but they might be forced to vote against the budget because they didnt get all the funding they wanted.

Bloc made their demands clear months ago.  About 5billion$ for Québec is what they were asking.  Some of it is justified though, it's just the Feds dragging their feet for years, mind you.

They'd look silly now that they got nothing to back out.

Aside that, Duceppe is a communist (for real, he was leader of the Maoist Party of Canada for a while) and he prefers the soft left of the Libs and the hard wing of the NDP to anything remotely right-wing.  He said so himself that his party shares many beliefs with the NDP.  And he was ready to align with Stephane Dion, sworn ennemy of Quebec, to defeat the Conservatives.  His move comes at no surprise.  He puts the bar sufficiently high to make sure the gov will fall.  The timing is right for him, he is more likely to make gains than to lose anything. 

The Conservatives have always been unpopular in Quebec, where they are seen by many as a western party with totally different values as ours.  It ain't true when you look at it, but the Bloc & their media allies like to repeat that as if it was a fact.
Then, there's this whole debacle about the financing of a new arena.  It went from 'maybe' to 'maybe no' to 'maybe yes but we need numbers' to 'no fucking way'.  The Conservatives of Quebec should have said so at the beginning, that it would be "no", no matter what.

That coupled with the evident lack of responsability shown by the government to its obligations in the House of Commons (Bev Oda and Christian Paradis should both be out, the first one because she lied or at the very least implied wrong facts to the MPs, the second because it's got to be the 3rd or 4th time one of his assistant makes a serious mistake in handling request of information by the public; seriously, if it's true, he's an incompetant manager, if it's right, he's a liar) you got very good conditions for the Conservatives to lose 2 or 3 MPs here.  And they have Quebec city's mayor on their side, even though he lost a bit of shining these last few weeks, he's still popular enough to make a difference by siding publicly&openly with the Bloc.

The funniest part though, is that a Liberal government would not give in to Quebec's demands as per the Bloc's resquests.  In fact, the only thing the Libs will do is to cancel the F-35 deal, the same way they cancelled the helicopters deal in 1993.  And I remember what a mess it was, and how much more it costed us in the end.  So the Bloc strategy is essentially pandering to the numerous leftist element in Quebec, mostly in downtown Montreal, to satisfy their thirst for the media spotlight.

My prediction: Majority Conservative government, with Bloc Québécois as Her Majesty's loyal opposition.

[viper37]

Contrary to the hysteria that went on in Canada when this scenario was alluded as a possibility, a significant proportion of Quebecers quite liked the idea of a coalition; true defenders of Quebec's interests forming a govt with others to rule Canada - sort of a win-win situation for many.

G.

Ask Jospeh Facal... he seem to disagree with you, as well as many former PQ members/ministers.
C'mon.  Be serious.  The Bloc was signing a blank check to the Libs for 2 years.  The CLP with Stephane Dion at its head!  Don't tell me you can't see what's bad about this, please!

[Grey Fox]

Couldn't ha ve been wrose then what we have now.

[viper37]

To be fair to Layton though, if he supported this budget, he would be seen as selling out. See, now that's a PRINCIPLE.

he made 5 demands, he got 2 of them.
There are some things there that could please the Bloc and the Libs too.

There's principle, and there's rigidity.  I suggest reading Lafontaine, he's got some good fables on this

[viper37]

Couldn't ha ve been wrose then what we have now.

This is were you are absolutely and totally wrong.
Canada would be in economic ruin.  The mostly unnecessary stimulus plan would have been much worst had it been made by Dion.  Frankly, do you see yourself paying 2,50$/lt because of some stupid carbon tax?   Do you see the consequences of having a tenfold deficit without the economic growth slowed by heavy taxation?
I can see this, and I don't like it.

[Josephus]

2 rather watered down demands out of the 5 he asked for (the senior's  supplement is a joke, offering  a few hundred dollars to only the most extremely poor seniors), and a whole bunch of things the NDP could not support.
I'm no fan of Jack's, but I give him credit this time for sticking to his guns. The Conservatives did not provide a budget that the NDP can realistically endorse without alienating its supporters.
It might mean that he will fall over like a big strong tree when the wind blows heavy; but then the Conservatives have not bent over backwards like the reed in order to appease the NDP and get their support.

[viper37]

The Conservatives did not provide a budget that the NDP can realistically endorse without alienating its supporters.

Yes, this kind of supporter:
Contrary to conventional wisdom, the federal government deficit and debt are not major problems.
http://www.canadianlabour.ca/news-room/publications/clc-analysis-2011-federal-budget

I'm glad they don't approve of the budget!

It might mean that he will fall over like a big strong tree when the wind blows heavy; but then the Conservatives have not bent over backwards like the reed in order to appease the NDP and get their support.

They did so two years ago.

[Valmy]

Sinn Féin, the Scottish National Party, Plaid Cymru, Bloc Québécois

What is it with all these nutty socialist nationalist parties?