[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Josephus]

Looks like the debates nudged things in the direction of the Liberals.  They are back up to a 92% chance of forming government and back up to a 70% chance of forming a majority.

Although a fair drop from, say April 11, when you posted this:

As of the 10th, according to CANADA 388 odds of Liberal majority 90%, liberal minority 10%.  Odds of Conservative minority 0%.

That's 20 per cent.

I really think we can't tell. It DOES seem likely, especially with a quarter of those eligible to vote, having voted already. The NDP can influence this election a lot. As I've stated before, many NDPers flocked to Carney to stop PP. Now, with the polls saying PP is unlikely to win, they're flocking back to NDP, and potentially splitting "progressive" votes and handing the Conservatives seats. I think this MIGHT end up being a nail biter. We'll see

[crazy canuck]

Looks like the debates nudged things in the direction of the Liberals.  They are back up to a 92% chance of forming government and back up to a 70% chance of forming a majority.

Although a fair drop from, say April 11, when you posted this:

As of the 10th, according to CANADA 388 odds of Liberal majority 90%, liberal minority 10%.  Odds of Conservative minority 0%.

That's 20 per cent.

I really think we can't tell. It DOES seem likely, especially with a quarter of those eligible to vote, having voted already. The NDP can influence this election a lot. As I've stated before, many NDPers flocked to Carney to stop PP. Now, with the polls saying PP is unlikely to win, they're flocking back to NDP, and potentially splitting "progressive" votes and handing the Conservatives seats. I think this MIGHT end up being a nail biter. We'll see

I think what has occurred is the Conservatives went hard on appealing to their base to shore up the seats they could win.  So they solidified their base, but it is the same old story of the Conservatives, they can't grow beyond their base.  That is, assuming the Mainstreet polling is wrong.