[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[viper37]

A comparison of Statistics Canada data against FBI data shows that a Jew in Canada is significantly more likely to be the target of a police-reported hate crime than a Jew in America."

Please, show me those statistics 

oh, that's right, the US doesn't compile data anymore for hate crimes. 

Silly me.

[viper37]

Trade deal struck with China to lower tariffs on EVs and create quotas (3% of market), the same for Canola etc.

Carney calls China more predictable than the US.  Says Chinese EV plant in Ontario in the future might be possible.

Interesting deal, very curious to see where this goes in the long run.  Some argue we should just allow Chinese EV in but we can't kill our own sector like that without some kind of transition gameplan.

I believe it's a very good trade deal.

We have no quota for our exports, lobsters, canola, wood, but China does have for its cars.

For now, the government and the industry will see if China abides by the terms of the treaty.  And I think, they will for now.

They seem weaker than they let appear.  The deal is very favorable to Canada.  We don't make electric cars in Canada, we only import them, so it's not costing us jobs.  The tarif reduction is mostly for cars below 35k$, so it's good for car inflation.  It lets China export it surplus electric cars after it's trade wars with other countries.

Obviously, they'll cheat in the future.  But the US isn't reliable at all and Europe is very slow to move.  Only Germany and France seems to be ready to move without the US for now.  UK still seems to want to dance with the orange man, for now.  The others are still a bit anti-trade.

[viper37]

And unfortunately the Chief of Police in Ottawa chose the do nothing option

My question is more what can be done when the Chief of Police refuses to move?

Should it be up to the city council to demote him and replace him with an emergency session?  This applies not only for this situation, but any future disruptive protest.  

You can be sure unions are taking notes for their next strikes right now.  The next time they have a complaint against any government, for whatever reason, they'll feel free to engage in any disruptive action without fear of retaliation, send goons to disrupt the peace knowing any police action will be slapped down by the courts.

Any protest group willing to stage a violent protest will now be emboldened to take action too.  I fear there is no end in sight.

[viper37]

And at this point I'm fully expecting the end of CUSMA...

It's a valid expectation, imho.

[crazy canuck]

And unfortunately the Chief of Police in Ottawa chose the do nothing option

My question is more what can be done when the Chief of Police refuses to move?

Should it be up to the city council to demote him and replace him with an emergency session?  This applies not only for this situation, but any future disruptive protest. 

You can be sure unions are taking notes for their next strikes right now.  The next time they have a complaint against any government, for whatever reason, they'll feel free to engage in any disruptive action without fear of retaliation, send goons to disrupt the peace knowing any police action will be slapped down by the courts.

Any protest group willing to stage a violent protest will now be emboldened to take action too.  I fear there is no end in sight.

The police act independently to independently of the executive.  I don't think another failure to act by a police chief is likely, given that one was fired

[crazy canuck]

From the Globe

Canada is planning to reserve preferential access to its domestic auto market for foreign automakers who build vehicles in this country under a new auto policy to be released in February, a senior Canadian official said Saturday.

The official also said Canada gave advance notice to the United States of its Jan. 16 decision to part with Washington and slash tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles that were imposed in tandem with the Americans in 2024.

[Bauer]

It's logical to say some cars gotta be made here to import at preferred tariffs.  But also don't think it's logical for all at makers to do so.  And if they are tariffed that just means less competition.  So many moving variables...

[viper37]

It's logical to say some cars gotta be made here to import at preferred tariffs.  But also don't think it's logical for all at makers to do so.  And if they are tariffed that just means less competition.  So many moving variables...

It's going to depend in which segment they target.

For general consumers, it will matter.  A Hyunday or a Toyota will directly compete with Ford or a GM.

The dude who buys a Lamborghini doesn't really care if it's 25% more or less, so I don't expect to see these cars assembled in Canada anytime soon.   Only the Ford GT is assembled in Canada, if that counts.

Moderate luxury brand cars like Acura, Lexus are assembled in Ontario.  Don't know if BMW, Mercedes or Audi has any auto plant here (we have a resident expert, but not in this thread...).

Now, let's say they don't.  You slap them with a 20-25% tariff, or a mix of import quotas and tariffs, and Acura and Lexus don't.  So you have an Acura and Lexus Sedan retailing for 65-70k$ that now costs 80k$ due to the various restrictions.  Market will shift toward the manufacturers who offer assembly in Canada.  Or the others will have to eat on their profit margins to offer competitive pricing.  Which will push them toward eventually investing in Canada, if the market size is sufficient.

It will also have a chilling effect for auto manufacturers who may be tempted to move their plants to the US or Asia and export their cars over here, knowing they will have to face steep tariffs compared to their competitors who kept their plants active.  They gain from rationalization, they lose from tariffs.

[Bauer]

Yeah there may be some cascading realities of the American tariffs forcing counter protectionism. 

[crazy canuck]

In a world where the American President imposes Tariffs to achieve his own personal ambitions the economic consequences are very much secondary considerations.

[Jacob]

I liked Carney's speech at Davos: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carney-davos-speech-9.7052725

[Zanza]

Don't know if BMW, Mercedes or Audi has any auto plant here (we have a resident expert, but not in this thread...).

Not that I am aware of. Suppliers (e.g Magna, Multimatic, lithium mining etc.). What is now Daimler Truck used to have a bus plant in Ontario, Mercedes had a fuel cell JV in Vancouver, but there are no significant own facilities. Wasn't necessary under NAFTA and USMCA. Canada alone is too small of a market for niche manufacturers like the German OEMs to invest in. They all try to convert from a "global" organization with heavy German footprint towards a more balanced local-for-local footprint with distributed RD, procurement, supply chain, production, sales in the three regions China, USA or USMCA, and EMEA/RoW.

[Jacob]

What's going on with Poilievre and the Conservatives?

Have they made any statements of substance on... you know, all this... Greenland? NATO? Canada's place in the world?

Secondly - is Poilievre on track to win the impending leadership review?

[Jacob]

Another question - in Carney's speech at Davos when listing off some of the things Canada was doing he mentioned something like "the club of buyers for critical minerals" or some such.

What I imagine it to be sounds good, but it's the first I've heard of it. Do any of you have any additional context or information on that?

[Bauer]

I liked Carney's speech at Davos: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carney-davos-speech-9.7052725

Yea I've liked all his moments on the world stage.  He's a man with vision and also pragmatic common sense.

Thank god we dodged PP during these times.