[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[viper37]

If it can't go east, what's the next option, Hudson Bay?

*edit* although I guess summer only shipments would be a bitch. Is the ice thin enough for ice breakers?

As a Manitoban I would love it if we expanded the Port of Churchill and built up the rail line going there.  It's true it's only open for part of the year (googling - July through November) but better than nothing.

There are some references to the water being somewhat shallow, which might restrict the ability of even smaller oil tankers to go there.  And being closed for part of the year probably makes a pipeline and/or LNG plant uneconomical.

Canada has other products besides oil abd gas...

[Barrister]

So going back to Canadian electoral politics...

The Tariff brouhaha has certainly made Canadian politics more unpredictable.  Trudeau and the Liberals did see a certain rallying around the flag.  There's been a surge in patriotism.  Conservative plans to make the next election all about the carbon tax now seem passe.  Plus now we have an Ontario election campaign going on.

Polls have shown a bump for the Liberals recently.  That's primarily from Trudeau's resignation - I don't think we have polling since the tariff threat.  Conservatives though are still comfortable in the lead, albeit not threatening a historic landslide anymore.

So there are just so many unknowns right now.  The tariffs are only delayed by 30 days - and the risk there is if Trump wants to push for more economic adjustments that would be much harder than simply spending money and making declarations.

Also curious if the crazy canuck theory of politics is true - that people won't like anyone who "sounds like" Trump.  I don't put much weight on that theory, but maybe it'll be true this time.  That obviously bodes poorly for POilievre (although I think there's a vast difference between Poilievre and Trump).

[viper37]

lthough I think there's a vast difference between Poilievre and Trump

Yes.  He praises Elon Musk and seeks his endorsement like a child craving the attention of his dad, but there is no Canadian resident Elon Musk.  Although he is a citizen and represents a huge threat to democracy.

[Barrister]

Canada has other products besides oil abd gas...

If you look at our exports, oil and gas absolutely dwarfs all other sectors.  It's also oil and gas where we're limited by capacity - we could sell more if we had more means to get it to market.

So look - absolutely we should look to diversify and promote exports of other sectors.  We should also try to move up the value added chain and not just export raw materials like oil, or minerals, or lumber.  But we can't do that at the cost of ignoring our number one industry by a mile.

[crazy canuck]

So going back to Canadian electoral politics...

The Tariff brouhaha has certainly made Canadian politics more unpredictable.  Trudeau and the Liberals did see a certain rallying around the flag.  There's been a surge in patriotism.  Conservative plans to make the next election all about the carbon tax now seem passe.  Plus now we have an Ontario election campaign going on.

Polls have shown a bump for the Liberals recently.  That's primarily from Trudeau's resignation - I don't think we have polling since the tariff threat.  Conservatives though are still comfortable in the lead, albeit not threatening a historic landslide anymore.

So there are just so many unknowns right now.  The tariffs are only delayed by 30 days - and the risk there is if Trump wants to push for more economic adjustments that would be much harder than simply spending money and making declarations.

Also curious if the crazy canuck theory of politics is true - that people won't like anyone who "sounds like" Trump.  I don't put much weight on that theory, but maybe it'll be true this time.  That obviously bodes poorly for POilievre (although I think there's a vast difference between Poilievre and Trump).

He just doesn't sound like Trump.  But I agree with you that there are also significant differences.  Like the fact all he has ever done in his life is be a politician.

[Grey Fox]

Could we make a Churchill Port economically viable if it shipped more than Oil & Gas?

[Neil]

So going back to Canadian electoral politics...

The Tariff brouhaha has certainly made Canadian politics more unpredictable.  Trudeau and the Liberals did see a certain rallying around the flag.  There's been a surge in patriotism.  Conservative plans to make the next election all about the carbon tax now seem passe.  Plus now we have an Ontario election campaign going on.

Polls have shown a bump for the Liberals recently.  That's primarily from Trudeau's resignation - I don't think we have polling since the tariff threat.  Conservatives though are still comfortable in the lead, albeit not threatening a historic landslide anymore.

So there are just so many unknowns right now.  The tariffs are only delayed by 30 days - and the risk there is if Trump wants to push for more economic adjustments that would be much harder than simply spending money and making declarations.

Also curious if the crazy canuck theory of politics is true - that people won't like anyone who "sounds like" Trump.  I don't put much weight on that theory, but maybe it'll be true this time.  That obviously bodes poorly for POilievre (although I think there's a vast difference between Poilievre and Trump).

I think that a lot of people are going to be frightened away from the Conservatives because of the stories of what Musk is doing south of the border, butchering the entire government as a functional entity.  I have a hard time predicting how much, but I think it'll have an effect.  That said, I don't think such a thing could ever happen in Canada, as the Supreme Court of Canada has no problem 'reading in', and would definitely block any rash attempt to perform the kind of vandalism in Canada that the Trump Administration has performed. 

[Barrister]

Could we make a Churchill Port economically viable if it shipped more than Oil & Gas?

Well first of all Port of Churchill doesn't ship O&G at all.  It ships grain.  And it doesn't ship a lot of grain - I think just a handful of ships per year.

One of the major issues is it is only accessible by rail - there's no road to Churchill.  And while there is a small but noticeable difference in distance if you go by rail to Churchill and then on to Europe, as compared to going south by rail to Port of Montreal and then Europe, it's not overwhelming.

What would be interesting though - Port of Churchill (and the accompanying rail link) is owned almost entirely by First Nations groups though.  Could you then get FN support for an oil pipeline across northern Sask and MB to Churchill, to then ship oil to Europe?

As mentioned though - Hudson Bay does freeze up, and the shipping season is limited.  I visited Arviat in Nunavut maybe 20 years ago in January, which is maybe 200-300km north of Churchill and also on Hudson's Bay - and if was frozen completely solid.  And the shipping route takes you through Hudson straight between northern Quebec and Baffin Island, and there be icebergs there.

Yeah - probably never going to happen.  That's a lot of brand-new pipeline being built, all for a 5 month shipping season.  But it would bring so much money to northern Manitoba I'd love to see it happen.

[viper37]

If you look at our exports, oil and gas absolutely dwarfs all other sectors.  It's also oil and gas where we're limited by capacity - we could sell more if we had more means to get it to market.

It's dwarfed by value.

And Canada has always been lazy in only selling raw products and importing transformed products from the US.  We sell aluminum ingots to the US, we import aluminum sheets for our cars, trains, and other manufacturing needs.  Aluminum produced with a very prefential electricity price.

Same for uranium, we do not enrich it here, we send it to the US.

[viper37]

Well first of all Port of Churchill doesn't ship O&G at all.  It ships grain.  And it doesn't ship a lot of grain - I think just a handful of ships per year.

One of the major issues is it is only accessible by rail - there's no road to Churchill.  And while there is a small but noticeable difference in distance if you go by rail to Churchill and then on to Europe, as compared to going south by rail to Port of Montreal and then Europe, it's not overwhelming.

What would be interesting though - Port of Churchill (and the accompanying rail link) is owned almost entirely by First Nations groups though.  Could you then get FN support for an oil pipeline across northern Sask and MB to Churchill, to then ship oil to Europe?

As mentioned though - Hudson Bay does freeze up, and the shipping season is limited.  I visited Arviat in Nunavut maybe 20 years ago in January, which is maybe 200-300km north of Churchill and also on Hudson's Bay - and if was frozen completely solid.  And the shipping route takes you through Hudson straight between northern Quebec and Baffin Island, and there be icebergs there.

Yeah - probably never going to happen.  That's a lot of brand-new pipeline being built, all for a 5 month shipping season.  But it would bring so much money to northern Manitoba I'd love to see it happen.

I don't know the logistics of icebergs nowadays, with modern radars, if they're still as big a threat as they were?

Ice is still a problem, but less so.  Within 50 years, the oil industry will have fixed that for you...

[Barrister]

If you look at our exports, oil and gas absolutely dwarfs all other sectors.  It's also oil and gas where we're limited by capacity - we could sell more if we had more means to get it to market.

It's dwarfed by value.

And Canada has always been lazy in only selling raw products and importing transformed products from the US.  We sell aluminum ingots to the US, we import aluminum sheets for our cars, trains, and other manufacturing needs.  Aluminum produced with a very prefential electricity price.

Same for uranium, we do not enrich it here, we send it to the US.

So I think there are special rules dealing with enriching uranium, so lets put that one to the side...

Typically though there's a reason for that.  I've seen talk before about "why don't we refine more of our oil and gas here in Canada".  Problem is an oil and gas refinery costs multiple billions of dollars, and there are already multiple refineries in North America.  It makes more economic sense to ship it to Houston or wherever.  If a company genuinely thought there was big money to be made building another refinery in Edmonton (we have a couple already) you bet they'd do that.

[crazy canuck]

So going back to Canadian electoral politics...

The Tariff brouhaha has certainly made Canadian politics more unpredictable.  Trudeau and the Liberals did see a certain rallying around the flag.  There's been a surge in patriotism.  Conservative plans to make the next election all about the carbon tax now seem passe.  Plus now we have an Ontario election campaign going on.

Polls have shown a bump for the Liberals recently.  That's primarily from Trudeau's resignation - I don't think we have polling since the tariff threat.  Conservatives though are still comfortable in the lead, albeit not threatening a historic landslide anymore.

So there are just so many unknowns right now.  The tariffs are only delayed by 30 days - and the risk there is if Trump wants to push for more economic adjustments that would be much harder than simply spending money and making declarations.

Also curious if the crazy canuck theory of politics is true - that people won't like anyone who "sounds like" Trump.  I don't put much weight on that theory, but maybe it'll be true this time.  That obviously bodes poorly for POilievre (although I think there's a vast difference between Poilievre and Trump).

I think that a lot of people are going to be frightened away from the Conservatives because of the stories of what Musk is doing south of the border, butchering the entire government as a functional entity.  I have a hard time predicting how much, but I think it'll have an effect.  That said, I don't think such a thing could ever happen in Canada, as the Supreme Court of Canada has no problem 'reading in', and would definitely block any rash attempt to perform the kind of vandalism in Canada that the Trump Administration has performed. 

I would rather not take the risk that our institutions could withstand the Conservatives mimicking what Trump is doing. 

[viper37]

as the Supreme Court of Canada has no problem 'reading in', and would definitely block any rash attempt to perform the kind of vandalism in Canada that the Trump Administration has performed. 

The PMO has large discretionary powers on what it can do to spend credits approved by the House of Commons.

Once they get a majority, they get even more power then Trump has, immunity aside.

There is nothing preventing PP from hiring a special consultant to direct a wave of compression and shutting down entire departments in the name of efficiency.  He already promised the shut down the CBC and mass layoffs in the public workforce.

[viper37]

Typically though there's a reason for that.  I've seen talk before about "why don't we refine more of our oil and gas here in Canada". 

We are a small market.

We refine the oil needed for most of our biggest markets and some of the smallest ones so we don't need to import refined oil from the US (mostly).  We rarely need to import crude oil from the US either, we have other sources, including Canada, for all Alberta's renting, they sell to Irving and Ontario's refineries, as well as the Montreal one. Lévis can't refine Western Crude.  

Other refineries were shutdown long ago as it was decided they could not refine Canadian oil by the Canadians.


Irving refine crude oil to export fuel & oil to the northeastern US by trains and trucks.

Montreal and Quebec refineries could have refined western crude long ago, Canada did not want it so, the Federal govt put a stop to this project as it would be a nuisance to Ontario's refineries.  We turned to other sources, and eventually some shut down their activities.

[Grey Fox]

Could we make a Churchill Port economically viable if it shipped more than Oil & Gas?

Well first of all Port of Churchill doesn't ship O&G at all.  It ships grain.  And it doesn't ship a lot of grain - I think just a handful of ships per year.

One of the major issues is it is only accessible by rail - there's no road to Churchill.  And while there is a small but noticeable difference in distance if you go by rail to Churchill and then on to Europe, as compared to going south by rail to Port of Montreal and then Europe, it's not overwhelming.

What would be interesting though - Port of Churchill (and the accompanying rail link) is owned almost entirely by First Nations groups though.  Could you then get FN support for an oil pipeline across northern Sask and MB to Churchill, to then ship oil to Europe?

As mentioned though - Hudson Bay does freeze up, and the shipping season is limited.  I visited Arviat in Nunavut maybe 20 years ago in January, which is maybe 200-300km north of Churchill and also on Hudson's Bay - and if was frozen completely solid.  And the shipping route takes you through Hudson straight between northern Quebec and Baffin Island, and there be icebergs there.

Yeah - probably never going to happen.  That's a lot of brand-new pipeline being built, all for a 5 month shipping season.  But it would bring so much money to northern Manitoba I'd love to see it happen.

With Climate change and the thining ice, I think it would be possible to keep the Port open year round. We would need more ice breakers. A whole fleet. Also a lot of pipelines & train tracks need to be built. Also something we can do.

25 years of lazyness about our infrastructure has got us royally fucked by the US. We need to change.