[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[crazy canuck]

As I've said many times though, the trouble with JT resigning now, before an election, is who would want to run against PP? i don't think anyone can currently beat him, that train has passed, so would a new Liberal leader want to run and lose?

I think the best course of action for any hopeful is to let JT run and lose. I don't think that's going to happen though. The cabinet hounds are smelling blood right now

It doesn't really matter, imo. Lead the LPC in the election. Lose badly. Blame it all on Trudeau and be the saviour for the next election. Reshaping the decimated LPC into your image.

Also, there is at least some chance a leader not named Justin Trudeau can win the election.  The option is PP and that is also not great.

[Barrister]

As I've said many times though, the trouble with JT resigning now, before an election, is who would want to run against PP? i don't think anyone can currently beat him, that train has passed, so would a new Liberal leader want to run and lose?

I think the best course of action for any hopeful is to let JT run and lose. I don't think that's going to happen though. The cabinet hounds are smelling blood right now

So the conservatives are 20 points ahead of the Liberals in the polls.  That's a lot.  If you are going to bet on who wins the next election, you should bet on the Conservatives.

That being said - Poilievre is not exactly the second coming of Barack Obama.  There's no Poilievre-mania sweeping the country.  A new Liberal leader has at least a fighting chance against Poilievre.  Plus there's the Trump X-factor.  While I think tying Poilievre to Trump is fairly tenuous, it promises to have at least some traction with voters - in particular if Trump follows through on his tariffs.  That could also help a new Liberal leader.

[Sheilbh]

It is challenging though. They'll have best part of a year which is probably enough time to draw a clear line between someone else and Trudeau - but the Liberals may just feel slightly exhausted more broadly and ready for opposition, and I think you probably need a deep bench to bring in some fresh faces in. Any views on those?

If you're 20 points behind my instinct is just re-badging won't work, it needs to be a plausible "change" message.

[Barrister]

It is challenging though. They'll have best part of a year which is probably enough time to draw a clear line between someone else and Trudeau - but the Liberals may just feel slightly exhausted more broadly and ready for opposition, and I think you probably need a deep bench to bring in some fresh faces in. Any views on those?

If you're 20 points behind my instinct is just re-badging won't work, it needs to be a plausible "change" message.

So the names floating out there are Chrystia Freeland, Mark Carney, former BC Premier Christy Clark, and Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly.  (hey - never thought about how 3 out of the 4 are women.  Liberal Party has never had a female leader).

They're all flawed in one way or another - but not such that they can't possibly win.

Freeland has been closely tied to Trudeau for the past several years (she was Deputy PM).  Personally, while I hate her performance as Finance Minister ($62 billion dollar deficit?!?) she's of Alberta-Ukrainian stock and a strong supporter of Ukraine, so I'll give her that.

Mark Carney has a very strong resume, but little public presence and no political experience.  I do think he'd be Ignatieff 2.0 - but again I do not wish to dismiss his experience which would be some of the strongest to ever hold the office of Liberal leader.

Christie Clarke - BC Liberal Party is not exactly similar to the Federal Liberal Party, and she is not at all popular in her home province of BC.  But she does at least have decent political experience.

Melanie Joly - smallest public persona easily of the four.  I have no real impression of her other than knowing the name.

So again, checking my priors, but the Liberals were in this spot before.  Post- Paul Martin they had no obvious successors.  They went with Stephane Dion, who I thought was a very decent man, but totally out of his depth as leader.  Then they went with Ignatieff, who again was a smart man but a political novice.

They then went with the "big name" of Trudeau - and it worked for them.  But Trudeau took over a rather rudderless Liberal Party at the time, and Trudeau was the party's big selling point.

[Neil]

I think that it's going to be interesting seeing how the Liberal Party goes for their next leader.  Carney and Freeland are sort of going for the same type of person, and I tend to think that the way that leadership conventions work (eliminating lower performers) will tend to favour them.  I also tend to think that they're the two strongest candidates in terms of public profile.  Joly has been trying to position herself as the successor to Trudeau's method of just being a friendly, inoffensive, passive-aggressive and good-looking guy.  I'd be really surprised if she did all that well, just because of how disgraced her mentor has become.  Clark is a bit of a wildcard.  She's got a real uphill battle, being a Westerner in a party that has traditionally favoured Quebec and the Golden Horseshoe, but I think she's got more of a chance than Joly. 

[Barrister]

I think that it's going to be interesting seeing how the Liberal Party goes for their next leader.  Carney and Freeland are sort of going for the same type of person, and I tend to think that the way that leadership conventions work (eliminating lower performers) will tend to favour them.

So Liberals don't use a leadership convention.

Instead it's a weighted preferential ballot.  Each riding has 100 points, and each member then marks their ballot in order of preference.

Personally I hate this system (the Conservatives have something almost identical), as it gives a riding in one province with 10 members the same weight as a riding in another province with 1000 members.  I get that both the Liberals and Conservatives have very regional bases of support (and for the Conservatives, for example, you don't just want Alberta electing the leader every time) but it still feels very undemocratic.

What it does mean is that it A: rewards candidates with strong ideological bases of support, or B: otherwise rewards inoffensive candidates on later ballots (think Andrew Scheer).

[Neil]

Hey, that's news to me.  I suppose I would never have participated in a Liberal leadership race, since I'm not a villain. 

I'd say that those rules are probably pretty bad for Clarke though. 

[Barrister]

Hey, that's news to me.  I suppose I would never have participated in a Liberal leadership race, since I'm not a villain. 

I'd say that those rules are probably pretty bad for Clarke though. 

It's hard to game this stuff out since the rules actively encourage people to go out and buy $5 "supporter" memberships just to vote in a leadership race, and B: there's no way to poll only party members.

But no - I don't think Christy Clarke would be a strong contender.  Even if she signed up a huge number of supporters in BC they'd all get pro-rated.  I don't think she has any strong ideological position that would attract supporters across the country.  I don't think she has strong enough name recognition in the rest of Canada either.

[crazy canuck]

What you are forgetting is that Clarke has deep roots in the Federal Liberal party.  And she is very well connected within the party.  So much so that when she ran the campus liberal club back in our university days, she could get people like Jean Chrétien and Sheila Copps to drop by to give a talk.

She was a provincial liberal before the Socred party imploded and migrated over to the B.C. Liberal party and took it over.


I'm not saying that she has a strong shot, but she's a lot more than just a former premier of British Columbia within the federal liberal party.

[Sheilbh]

So again, checking my priors, but the Liberals were in this spot before.  Post- Paul Martin they had no obvious successors.  They went with Stephane Dion, who I thought was a very decent man, but totally out of his depth as leader.  Then they went with Ignatieff, who again was a smart man but a political novice.

They then went with the "big name" of Trudeau - and it worked for them.  But Trudeau took over a rather rudderless Liberal Party at the time, and Trudeau was the party's big selling point.

Interesting summary - I'm not sure.

I should say I think Leader of the Opposition is the most difficult job in politics. But LOTO when you're party's shattered and its lowest ebb requires a different skillset and type of candidate than when you're in office, have been for almost a decade and the opposition have a twenty point lead.

It's not impossible but I feel like in that context you almost need someone who can be a safe pair of hands, while signifying change. Not impossible - but a hell of a line to walk.

[viper37]

Parliamentary system.  Almost nobody comes in to win the head of a federal party without serving in caucus/cabinet first.

But the rules are slightly different from the Federal to the provinces.  Yet they can go from being a cabinet Minister in the Federal parliament to Premier in a provincial legislature.  But never from Premier to Prime Minister.  As if there is some snobbism involved.

It has nothing to do with the rules.  It's certainly possible for a sitting or former Premier to run for leader of a Federal party and then become Prime Minister.

It just hasn't happened since 1892.

I don't mean "Impossible" as in legally, I mean "impossible" as in "it never happened, so it must be because it's impossible to be taken seriously".

[viper37]

As I've said many times though, the trouble with JT resigning now, before an election, is who would want to run against PP? i don't think anyone can currently beat him, that train has passed, so would a new Liberal leader want to run and lose?

I think the best course of action for any hopeful is to let JT run and lose. I don't think that's going to happen though. The cabinet hounds are smelling blood right now

It doesn't really matter, imo. Lead the LPC in the election. Lose badly. Blame it all on Trudeau and be the saviour for the next election. Reshaping the decimated LPC into your image.

I agree with this.  Start rebuilding the party now, picking up the pieces.  Make clear they are distanciting themselves from the Trudeau era.  Which is going to be tough for Freeland.

[viper37]

Dominic Leblanc says it's been confirmed that Carney isn't coming to the Liberal Party.  I'm shocked by this news.

[Grey Fox]

https://thewalrus.ca/how-the-1980s-engineered-the-collapse-of-the-working-class/

Because has I said everything can be laid to the feat of Ronald Regean.

[crazy canuck]

Cabinet shuffle on Friday, so I guess JT has decided to stay and brazen it out.  He must be counting on the NDP not supporting the no confidence vote when Parliament resumes.