[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[crazy canuck]

And now Singh is backtracking on the comments of the NDP house leader that the NDP would support a non confidence motion if Trudeau remains.

Killing any hope the NDP have to benefit from the Liberal dumpster fire

[Barrister]

And now Singh is backtracking on the comments of the NDP house leader that the NDP would support a non confidence motion if Trudeau remains.

Killing any hope the NDP have to benefit from the Liberal dumpster fire

Singh says the NDP will in fact bring a non-confidence motion.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/singh-ndp-non-confidence-1.7416221

Timestamp is 10 minutes ago.

[Barrister]

As I understand it though Parliament won't resume until the new year.

[Grey Fox]

It is time.

[crazy canuck]

And now Singh is backtracking on the comments of the NDP house leader that the NDP would support a non confidence motion if Trudeau remains.

Killing any hope the NDP have to benefit from the Liberal dumpster fire

Singh says the NDP will in fact bring a non-confidence motion.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/singh-ndp-non-confidence-1.7416221

Timestamp is 10 minutes ago.

Yeah, seems it did not take long for him to realize his mistake and backtrack on his backtrack.  The guy is hopeless.

And you are right, this couldn't happen until Parliament resumes.  My bet is JT now must prorogue and step down as leader.

[Grey Fox]

So our election could be in mid-May.

Prorogue after opening parliement January 27 after a week or 2 of procedural delay. Wait 40 days and then elections in 55 to 60 days.

[Barrister]

So I know my priors and I'm not going to argue that proroguing Parliament is some affront to democracy.

But given that Parliament is on a break for one month anyways - what would be the point?  Trudeau is apparently going to announce his cabinet shuffle today in any event, they've already given an economic update.

If you're Justin Trudeau - what would proroguing for another month do?

In fact (if I was a Liberal strategist) you're going to be running against Donald Trump as much as you're running against Poilievre.  You're probably better off with an election much closer to the inauguration date as you can get.

[crazy canuck]

So I know my priors and I'm not going to argue that proroguing Parliament is some affront to democracy.

But given that Parliament is on a break for one month anyways - what would be the point?  Trudeau is apparently going to announce his cabinet shuffle today in any event, they've already given an economic update.

If you're Justin Trudeau - what would proroguing for another month do?

In fact (if I was a Liberal strategist) you're going to be running against Donald Trump as much as you're running against Poilievre.  You're probably better off with an election much closer to the inauguration date as you can get.

It  will take more than the end of January to elect the new leader. Why would the Liberals put themselves in a position of potentially heading into an election without a leader?

[Barrister]

So I know my priors and I'm not going to argue that proroguing Parliament is some affront to democracy.

But given that Parliament is on a break for one month anyways - what would be the point?  Trudeau is apparently going to announce his cabinet shuffle today in any event, they've already given an economic update.

If you're Justin Trudeau - what would proroguing for another month do?

In fact (if I was a Liberal strategist) you're going to be running against Donald Trump as much as you're running against Poilievre.  You're probably better off with an election much closer to the inauguration date as you can get.

It  will take more than the end of January to elect the new leader. Why would the Liberals put themselves in a position of potentially heading into an election without a leader?

I think I specified "if you're Justin Trudeau".

I'm trying to think of any prior example of a party trying to select a new leader right around the time of an election.  The only example I can think of is 1980 - where Pierre Trudeau resigned, Joe Clarke formed government, forgot to consult with the Credistes, lost a confidence vote - and then Pierre Trudeau returned and won a new mandate.

Only other example I can think of is 2001 - Stockwell Day had just won the leadership of the newly formed Canadian Alliance, only to see Chretien call a snap election before the CA was ready (mind you Day foolishly dared him to do it).

The thing is - there's very little time for a traditional leadership race.  The Liberals have about 4 weeks already - and they could prorugue for what - another month or so?  But would a 6 month prorogueation be in any way appropriate?

[Sheilbh]

I feel like proroguing parliament because you've lost your majority/confidence of parliament is not appropriate generally

[Barrister]

I feel like proroguing parliament because you've lost your majority/confidence of parliament is not appropriate generally

So there was the example of Stephen Harper in 2008.

Harper had just won an election with a minority government in October 2008.  It is key of course this was 2008 - with the financial crises going on.

At the end of November the Conservatives gave a financial update with plans for austerity.  In response the opposition parties announced a coalition and intended to bring down the government.  Harper announced he would prorouge Parliament on December 3, until January 26, 2009.

In the meantime the Conservatives re-worked their response to the financial crises, and the opposition coalition collapsed (I could go into details).

So I think the precedent has been set that a government can seek to prorugue parliament - but for a reasonably limited period of time.  (You can also go back to much more historical precedents like the King-Byng affair, but 2008 is obviously what most people will think of).

There's also some suggestion that the Governor-General might refuse to prorugue - and she may well have if a much longer period was suggested.

[Grey Fox]

Can anyone write prorogue successfully the first time?

[crazy canuck]

So I know my priors and I'm not going to argue that proroguing Parliament is some affront to democracy.

But given that Parliament is on a break for one month anyways - what would be the point?  Trudeau is apparently going to announce his cabinet shuffle today in any event, they've already given an economic update.

If you're Justin Trudeau - what would proroguing for another month do?

In fact (if I was a Liberal strategist) you're going to be running against Donald Trump as much as you're running against Poilievre.  You're probably better off with an election much closer to the inauguration date as you can get.

It  will take more than the end of January to elect the new leader. Why would the Liberals put themselves in a position of potentially heading into an election without a leader?

I think I specified "if you're Justin Trudeau".

I'm trying to think of any prior example of a party trying to select a new leader right around the time of an election.  The only example I can think of is 1980 - where Pierre Trudeau resigned, Joe Clarke formed government, forgot to consult with the Credistes, lost a confidence vote - and then Pierre Trudeau returned and won a new mandate.

Only other example I can think of is 2001 - Stockwell Day had just won the leadership of the newly formed Canadian Alliance, only to see Chretien call a snap election before the CA was ready (mind you Day foolishly dared him to do it).

The thing is - there's very little time for a traditional leadership race.  The Liberals have about 4 weeks already - and they could prorugue for what - another month or so?  But would a 6 month prorogueation be in any way appropriate?

I agree with you, it's weak, but weak is all they've got.

[Neil]

I guess the Liberals have to try and find a way to hope they can somehow pull a rabbit out of their hats somehow.  The best thing for the party would be to just get the election over with, let the Conservatives eat the economic downturn that will follow Trump's election and the lingering effects of the disastrous policies of the Trudeau government and then come back with a new leader in 2030.