[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Barrister]

She can leave & go do something else while the Liberal wallows for the 8 year cycle of the CPC in government and come back as the anointed leader then.

She can go do work for an international org or even better, join the OnLP after the next Ontario Election and lead those to victory in ~2029.

8 years is a long time to be out of the public eye though.  Plus she's already 56, 8 years would put her at 64.

While being Premier of Canada's largest province is an important job in it's own right it's very unlikely to be a stepping stone to being Prime Minister.  In fact I can't think of a single Premier who made the jump to PM.

No, the gambit here is either:

1. Trudeau resigns over Christmas.  Freeland runs and wins leadership.  She then either pulls out a "come from behind" victory in a fall election, or at least does well enough to stay as leader until the next election.

2. Trudeau stays as leader, gets trounced.  Freeland then steps in to become opposition leader after Trudeau resigns.


You can't be too cute in politics.  If the top job comes up you almost have to go for it - they don't come open very often.

Of course let me "check my priors".  I'm a Conservative Party member and look forward to the Liberal Party's defeat.  While not impossible that I'd ever vote Liberal, it is quite unlikely.  That being said I think I'm a rational enough person my analysis isn't overly effected by my bias.

[Grey Fox]

8 years is a long time to be out of the public eye though.  Plus she's already 56, 8 years would put her at 64.

While being Premier of Canada's largest province is an important job in it's own right it's very unlikely to be a stepping stone to being Prime Minister.  In fact I can't think of a single Premier who made the jump to PM.

Unless you're from Quebec, I guess. I believe that's what Pablo Rodriguez is doing. Go lead the LPQ for a couple of losing election (finishing 2nd twice) and than go for a LPC lead bid next time it comes up in early 2030s.

[Barrister]

8 years is a long time to be out of the public eye though.  Plus she's already 56, 8 years would put her at 64.

While being Premier of Canada's largest province is an important job in it's own right it's very unlikely to be a stepping stone to being Prime Minister.  In fact I can't think of a single Premier who made the jump to PM.

Unless you're from Quebec, I guess. I believe that's what Pablo Rodriguez is doing. Go lead the LPQ for a couple of losing election (finishing 2nd twice) and than go for a LPC lead bid next time it comes up in early 2030s.

People have definitely gone from Federal politics to provincial Premiers.  Think of Jean Charest, Lucien Bouchard, Brian Pallister or Jason Kenney.

People have gone from the Premier's office to Federal politics as well.  Think Bob Rae, or further back Tommy Douglas.

But I can't think of anyone who in all of Canadian history has gone from Premier, to Prime Minister.  Maybe one of those forgotten 19th century PMs after Sir John A, but I think that almost proves my point (if true).

(OK - Sir John Sparrow David Thompson, spent 2 months as Premier of Nova Scotia in 1882 before being defeated in an election, later became Prime Minister from 1892-1894, dying in office)

[Grey Fox]

Yes, you are right.

I'm a little surprised by the position that being Prime Minister is vastly more prestigious than being Premier. Thinking about it, it is obvious, I just never had done so before. For us Québécois, the leader of the nation sits in Quebec city, not Ottawa.

[viper37]

But I can't think of anyone who in all of Canadian history has gone from Premier, to Prime Minister.  Maybe one of those forgotten 19th century PMs after Sir John A, but I think that almost proves my point (if true).

It's strange when you think about it.
Being Governor in the US was often seen as a stepping stone to becoming President (20 over 45, 17 were Senators).  But in Canada, coming from a Province without serving first to a cabinet position seems to be a handicap.

[viper37]

Trudeau told Freeland that Carney would replace her as finance minister over Zoom
Link

He said Carney would replaced her, but apparently he never formally agreed to.

What a shit show.

[Barrister]

But I can't think of anyone who in all of Canadian history has gone from Premier, to Prime Minister.  Maybe one of those forgotten 19th century PMs after Sir John A, but I think that almost proves my point (if true).

It's strange when you think about it.
Being Governor in the US was often seen as a stepping stone to becoming President (20 over 45, 17 were Senators).  But in Canada, coming from a Province without serving first to a cabinet position seems to be a handicap.

Parliamentary system.  Almost nobody comes in to win the head of a federal party without serving in caucus/cabinet first.

Only two examples I can think of are Brian Mulroney (corporate lawyer) who turned out okay, and Michael Ignatieff (Harvard professor), who did not.

[viper37]

Parliamentary system.  Almost nobody comes in to win the head of a federal party without serving in caucus/cabinet first.

But the rules are slightly different from the Federal to the provinces.  Yet they can go from being a cabinet Minister in the Federal parliament to Premier in a provincial legislature.  But never from Premier to Prime Minister.  As if there is some snobbism involved.

[Sheilbh]

Parliamentary system.  Almost nobody comes in to win the head of a federal party without serving in caucus/cabinet first.

Only two examples I can think of are Brian Mulroney (corporate lawyer) who turned out okay, and Michael Ignatieff (Harvard professor), who did not.

Although I think some of that is the Westminster system specifically. In Germany I think you can have Chancellor-candidates who are Minister-Presidents, though I'm not sure how common it is - and there is a system for picking ahead of the election.

Similarly the norm in much of Europe is for the government/cabinet to not actually be made up of legislators, in some countries I think they have to resign their seats to become a minister.

Also I suppose unlike America there's not really a way for, say, a barely known Governor of Arkansas or Georgia to spend two years raising their profile to become a national figure (in the UK that'd definitely piss off all their local voters ) - so maybe just lower profiles. I get Quebec's different but reading this thread my impression of prominent Anglo Premiers is that they seem eccentric

[crazy canuck]

There is a very practical reason why provincial premieres don't become PM.  Premieres are in a constant battle with Ottawa and if you are a successful premier, you have won those battles.

It'd be very odd to switch gears and become the antagonist of the provinces.

I keep hearing Christy Clark's name come up as a potential leadership contender. I don't think she has a shot, but she would be the first premier to become Prime Minister if she won the leadership while the liberals were still in power.

[Barrister]

Parliamentary system.  Almost nobody comes in to win the head of a federal party without serving in caucus/cabinet first.

But the rules are slightly different from the Federal to the provinces.  Yet they can go from being a cabinet Minister in the Federal parliament to Premier in a provincial legislature.  But never from Premier to Prime Minister.  As if there is some snobbism involved.

It has nothing to do with the rules.  It's certainly possible for a sitting or former Premier to run for leader of a Federal party and then become Prime Minister.

It just hasn't happened since 1892.

[crazy canuck]

I think BB has accurately described Freeland's only options.  I also think Trudeau gave her no option but to do this.  Apparently, he was caught by surprise and didn't realize that firing his finance minister. The Friday before she gave her Monday update would be a bad idea.

And this is the guy who's going to be negotiating with the Americans. Great just great.

He really does need to resign so that the liberals can elect a new leader who is hopefully more confident than Trudeau. It's a little bar. I know that that's where we're at.

[Josephus]

As I've said many times though, the trouble with JT resigning now, before an election, is who would want to run against PP? i don't think anyone can currently beat him, that train has passed, so would a new Liberal leader want to run and lose?

I think the best course of action for any hopeful is to let JT run and lose. I don't think that's going to happen though. The cabinet hounds are smelling blood right now

[crazy canuck]

As I've said many times though, the trouble with JT resigning now, before an election, is who would want to run against PP? i don't think anyone can currently beat him, that train has passed, so would a new Liberal leader want to run and lose?

I think the best course of action for any hopeful is to let JT run and lose. I don't think that's going to happen though. The cabinet hounds are smelling blood right now

The CBC is reporting that there is at least four people who have active leadership teams in place for when Justin steps down. Freeland is now number five she will clearly be a contender for the leadership.

[Grey Fox]

As I've said many times though, the trouble with JT resigning now, before an election, is who would want to run against PP? i don't think anyone can currently beat him, that train has passed, so would a new Liberal leader want to run and lose?

I think the best course of action for any hopeful is to let JT run and lose. I don't think that's going to happen though. The cabinet hounds are smelling blood right now

It doesn't really matter, imo. Lead the LPC in the election. Lose badly. Blame it all on Trudeau and be the saviour for the next election. Reshaping the decimated LPC into your image.