[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Grey Fox]

Liberals are still not campaigning.

"polling analyst Philippe Fournier at 338Canada.com believes the assertion that there is still time to turn things around increasingly looks like "naive wishful thinking"

I do not believe a new Liberal leader will change anything. Either the Liberals start campaigning right now or we will have the same old change to Parliament.

Ontario will decide, once again, where the future of Canada is.  Recent history is really bad for our democracy and our country.

Btw, I don't get their Quebec data. There is no Jack Layton like figure walking in thru anyone's door. The results will look very similar to 2021. The situation is the same.

So I feel like Singh has been fairly unimpressive, so yes he's not going anywhere.

I don't think anyone is expecting a 1984-like breakthrough in Quebec for the Conservatives.  But you guys have always been a little bit - parochial dare I say it?  You seem to like voting for French candidates.  So despite Poilievre being from Calgary originally, and his first language is English - I do wonder how well a guy with a French name might do in the next election.

Yes and PP's french is very good. He'll be even better when the election comes.

[Josephus]

As I said earlier, it makes more sense for any Liberal contender to wait it out until after the next election. As you've all said, the Liberals won't win the next election regardless who's their leader, so let JT take the fall and blame the party's decimation on him.

What I don't get is why Singh is not really trying to gain the anti-Trudeau vote and allowing it to slip to PP. He really should push to be the choice of the center lefts. Particularly as I think a lot--or at least some-- of the PP support is more anti-JT vote than pro PP. Or I may be wrong. Is PP that popular?

[crazy canuck]

As I said earlier, it makes more sense for any Liberal contender to wait it out until after the next election. As you've all said, the Liberals won't win the next election regardless who's their leader, so let JT take the fall and blame the party's decimation on him.

What I don't get is why Singh is not really trying to gain the anti-Trudeau vote and allowing it to slip to PP. He really should push to be the choice of the center lefts. Particularly as I think a lot--or at least some-- of the PP support is more anti-JT vote than pro PP. Or I may be wrong. Is PP that popular?

Singh made the NDP irrelevant with the supply and confidence agreement.  The NDP won't recover from that in this election cycle.  And probably won't recover until they get a new leader who is not tainted by that move.

[Jacob]

So your prediction is a Conservative sweep, with massive losses for the Libs and significant ones for the NDP?

[crazy canuck]

Yep, I can't see a way back for the liberals unless something dramatic changes and the federal NDPis irrelevant.

[Barrister]

As I said earlier, it makes more sense for any Liberal contender to wait it out until after the next election. As you've all said, the Liberals won't win the next election regardless who's their leader, so let JT take the fall and blame the party's decimation on him.

What I don't get is why Singh is not really trying to gain the anti-Trudeau vote and allowing it to slip to PP. He really should push to be the choice of the center lefts. Particularly as I think a lot--or at least some-- of the PP support is more anti-JT vote than pro PP. Or I may be wrong. Is PP that popular?

So let's be clear - there's no Poilievre-mania going on.  It is mostly an anti-Trudeau vote.

But CC I think has it right - by signing the supply-and-confidence agreement, Singh has made the NDP Liberals-adjacent.  If you dislike the Liberals - why would you vote for the party that has supported them for 2 years?  If you like the Liberals - why vote for the NDP, and not the real thing?

[Barrister]

So your prediction is a Conservative sweep, with massive losses for the Libs and significant ones for the NDP?

According to current polls (and remember - polls are for dogs) - NDP should be largely unchanged, but yes massive Liberal losses.

[Josephus]

As I said earlier, it makes more sense for any Liberal contender to wait it out until after the next election. As you've all said, the Liberals won't win the next election regardless who's their leader, so let JT take the fall and blame the party's decimation on him.

What I don't get is why Singh is not really trying to gain the anti-Trudeau vote and allowing it to slip to PP. He really should push to be the choice of the center lefts. Particularly as I think a lot--or at least some-- of the PP support is more anti-JT vote than pro PP. Or I may be wrong. Is PP that popular?

So let's be clear - there's no Poilievre-mania going on.  It is mostly an anti-Trudeau vote.

But CC I think has it right - by signing the supply-and-confidence agreement, Singh has made the NDP Liberals-adjacent.  If you dislike the Liberals - why would you vote for the party that has supported them for 2 years?  If you like the Liberals - why vote for the NDP, and not the real thing?

Well Singh can campaign on a "I brought you poors the dental care" and quite possibly the pharmacare thing. I don't think all the JT hate is anti Liberal hate, just anti JT hate...so a strong campaign can make a difference, once people see what a complete idiot the policy-less Conservative leader is.

[crazy canuck]

He will certainly say that, but very few will take him seriously.

A recent opinion piece in the Globe sums up the problem:

Pity Jagmeet Singh's communications staff, constantly tasked with finding new language for the same empty threat the NDP Leader has been making for years. Mr. Singh has to sound serious but not be serious; he needs to project resoluteness even though he's the political equivalent of an accordion, bending in every direction and emitting sounds that appeal only to a very niche subset of people.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-jagmeet-singh-is-super-serious-this-time/

[Oexmelin]

But you guys have always been a little bit - parochial dare I say it?  You seem to like voting for French candidates.  So despite Poilievre being from Calgary originally, and his first language is English - I do wonder how well a guy with a French name might do in the next election.

When was the last time you voted for someone with a mediocre grasp of English?

[HVC]

Chrétien

[crazy canuck]

But you guys have always been a little bit - parochial dare I say it?  You seem to like voting for French candidates.  So despite Poilievre being from Calgary originally, and his first language is English - I do wonder how well a guy with a French name might do in the next election.

When was the last time you voted for someone with a mediocre grasp of English?

I believe Cretien won several elections

[Jacob]

... but did Beeb vote for him?

[Oexmelin]

Chrétien's English was orders of magnitude better than the French of most Anglophones who opposed him, regardless of the specific context that ensured Liberal dominance during those years... I mean, was there any chance that Quebec would vote Reform or Alliance?

Conservative and NDP leaders who did well in Quebec had all good, or better than average French as a second language. The capacity to address, and be understood by, electors, goes a long way. If you can't do much more than mumble a string of incoherent words, you better have a strong Quebec lieutenant.

In any case, as long as the Quebec question dominated Canadian politics, it's hard to fault Quebec for picking and chosing politicians who, at least, said they cared about it. Again, was there any chance that Quebec would vote Reform?

I get irritated by the "parochial" comment because it's a frequent way to delegitimize certain politics in general, and Quebec politics specifically. It's a lazy (and insulting) way to explain away political difficulties by blaming "tribal thinking". In a federal regime where relations between a majority and a minority is an issue since 1840, it should be unsurprising that it matters in picking national leaders.
Albertan grievances were similarly "parochial" and the solution that Albertan conservatives picked was, unsurprisingly, to reshape the federal Conservative party into their own image -as much as possible. Would BB ever describe his own politics as parochial?

[Jacob]

I know of a few people who might describe Beeb's politics as, dare I say, a little parochial...

Oex - to me the question is whether Poilievre's French is - or is likely to become - good enough to connect with people in Quebec? Personally I can't imagine that a typical Alberta Conservative would play particularly well in Quebec, even if he has French name; but politicians can be clever so maybe he'll be able to pull off a chameleon act and come across as sufficiently aligned with voters if his language skills are up to it?