[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[viper37]

edit; and as someone who advises universities, it is not really that obvious to me how the province of Ontario would wield the influence you are talking about in this case.

the only real lever I can see is financing, but in this case, it would be on dubious legal grounds.  But a common front against censorship in universities by the Premiers of the country two most populous province would be an extremely good start.  Getting on the same page, sharing strategies, ideas, etc.

I sincerely hope Legault is the type to yell at bureaucrats who totally fuck up their jobs, but not at fellow Premiers when opening dialogue

[crazy canuck]

Complete collapse of the right wing vote in BC in this election.  The NDP are taking ridings that have been safe Liberal (and before them Social Credit) seats for decades.  In a number of ridings the Liberal candidate is third behind the Greens.  Big night for the NDP obviously - a big shift in the politics here.  But also for the Greens.  They are going to win three seats, two of which were safe Green seats and one take away from the Liberals.

[Grey Fox]

BC legislative assembly is bigger then Quebec's. 😱

I wonder if this will mean the end of the uneasy economic alliance that is the BC libs.

[Valmy]

Complete collapse of the right wing vote in BC in this election.  The NDP are taking ridings that have been safe Liberal (and before them Social Credit) seats for decades.  In a number of ridings the Liberal candidate is third behind the Greens.  Big night for the NDP obviously - a big shift in the politics here.  But also for the Greens.  They are going to win three seats, two of which were safe Green seats and one take away from the Liberals.

I was about to say...the right wing vote was 4th place at best.

But I see the Liberals are the right wing in this case.

The overall vote share for the Greens seems to have gone down and now that the NDP has an absolute majority it seems like they are no longer necessary for the government. That doesn't seem like a good night for them.

[crazy canuck]

Complete collapse of the right wing vote in BC in this election.  The NDP are taking ridings that have been safe Liberal (and before them Social Credit) seats for decades.  In a number of ridings the Liberal candidate is third behind the Greens.  Big night for the NDP obviously - a big shift in the politics here.  But also for the Greens.  They are going to win three seats, two of which were safe Green seats and one take away from the Liberals.

I was about to say...the right wing vote was 4th place at best.

But I see the Liberals are the right wing in this case.

The overall vote share for the Greens seems to have gone down and now that the NDP has an absolute majority it seems like they are no longer necessary for the government. That doesn't seem like a good night for them.

Here is where you need to know a bit about BC politics to make sense of that high level data. 

The Green leader won the leadership election just one week before the election was called (one of the reasons the NDP called the election was to try to wipe out the Greens).  The Greens did not have time to put candidates in place in all ridings and so their percentage of the popular vote province wide was going to go down.  The other factor is the when the former leader stepped down he endorsed the NDP - in the last election his riding had the largest percentage of Green vote but that vote was split because of his actions and losing those 10k or so votes had some effect on the overall percentage.

If you don't look at the province wide percentage but instead look at their riding by riding results, you can see that the Greens did well.  They have only won seats on Vancouver Island (its own political ecosystem - forgive the pun) but this election they won a riding on the mainland.  It is next door to mine - an historically safe Liberal seat in a mainly affluent riding.  It is a big win for the Greens that they took that riding from the Liberals.  They held on to their Island ridings with the exception of the riding of the previous leader.  Perhaps more significantly the Green candidate was the runner up to the NDP in a lot of races in the interior.  Small populations in those ridings, so that isn't going to show up on the popular vote stats - but in terms of seat count and the next election, that is going to be a big worry for the NDP.

Regarding not holding the balance of power, that is only possible if the Liberals are competitive but they collapsed.  Can't put that on the Greens.

[crazy canuck]

Saskatchewan and BC, a tale of diverging politics in Canada.


Why has right wing politics succeeded in Saskatchewan and collapsed in BC?  I don't know the answer to that question.  But it points to the difficulty of a Federal party creating a big tent.  Are we headed to a US version of tribal politics?  I doubt it.  No political party can win with only the prairie provinces and so that moderates Federal politics.  But that also poses significant problems for the Federal conservatives.  How do they keep their prairie voters happy and win a federal election.  Let's see how O'Toole tries to figure that out.

[Barrister]

So couple different election last night.

First in Saskatchewan, the right-leaning Saskatchewan Party cleaned up.  Although mail in ballots may change things slightly the Sask Party wins it's 4th straight mandate with 50 seats to the NDPs 11.  Apparently the SP has won over 60% of the vote for three straight elections.

Remember I largely grew up in Saskatchewan.  That province was a CCF/NDP powerhouse.  Does this perhaps show how the left, and the NDP in particular, has changed over the years?


Then two by-elections in Toronto.  Both were held by the Liberals, and were thought to be Liberal strongholds.  In Toronto Centre the Liberal candidate won with 42%, but the new Green Party leader was also running, capturing 32% of the vote.  In York Centre the Liberals also won with 45% of the vote, but the Conservatives were very close with 42%.  The Maxime Bernier also ran, winning a tiny 3% of the vote - but those votes would have made the difference if those people would have voted Conservative.

[Grey Fox]

I think it mostly shows how when the Conservative controls the legislation for 20 years & the Sask media is overwhelmingly conservative, the toxic message that taxes are bad chokes everything else.

The modern Sask NDP is not without issues. Too centrist & brings nothing new to the table.

[Barrister]

I think it mostly shows how when the Conservative controls the legislation for 20 years & the Sask media is overwhelmingly conservative, the toxic message that taxes are bad chokes everything else.

The modern Sask NDP is not without issues. Too centrist & brings nothing new to the table.

Methinks you know very little about Saskatchewan.  Blaming the conservative media?  First of all - what media?  Media is almost dead these days.  The newspapers have a readership just a fraction of what it used to be.  On TV they still have left-leaning CBC, as well as CTV.  Most people get their news from the internet these days.

That being said, I think it's a much simpler explanation.  There have been 3 pandemic elections now, and the government was re-elected each time.  Voters don't want to rock the boat during a global crisis.  The US is the exception that proves the rule, since it is Trump that is doing the most boat-rocking of all.

[Oexmelin]

Does this perhaps show how the left, and the NDP in particular, has changed over the years?

How would you say it has changed? And how would you say the Conservatives have changed?

[Grey Fox]

Blaming the conservative media?  First of all - what media?  Media is almost dead these days.  The newspapers have a readership just a fraction of what it used to be.  On TV they still have left-leaning CBC, as well as CTV.  Most people get their news from the internet these days.

That being said, I think it's a much simpler explanation.  There have been 3 pandemic elections now, and the government was re-elected each time.  Voters don't want to rock the boat during a global crisis.  The US is the exception that proves the rule, since it is Trump that is doing the most boat-rocking of all.

The CBC is left-leaning on tv, right wing propaganda on the web. All National newspaper & their respective websites are right wing.

[Barrister]

So there's a lot going on in the world and in Canada right?  We've got Covid-19 and the associated economic carnage.  In Ottawa we have the Liberals attempts to stifle opposition demands for more documentation regarding the WE charity scandal.

So what important issue does the Bloq Quebecois want to debate in Parliament tomorrow?  The invocation of the War Measures Act in October 1970. 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/bloc-motion-october-crisis-1.5779874

[crazy canuck]

I guess the anniversary date of this event and the significance of it has escaped people in Alberta.  It has been in the media here.  I assume it will be much more of an issue in the place where, you know, it actually happened.

This is the second attack on Quebec you have made out of right field.  You sure you are not consuming some odd social media these days.

[Barrister]

I guess the anniversary date of this event and the significance of it has escaped people in Alberta.  It has been in the media here.  I assume it will be much more of an issue in the place where, you know, it actually happened.

This is the second attack on Quebec you have made out of right field.  You sure you are not consuming some odd social media these days.

Get your facts straight - it's an attack on the BQ, not on Quebec.

And I found the story on the CBC politics website.

The Liberals and COnservatives responded saying that the focus of attention on the anniversary should be on the death of Pierre Laporte at the hands of domestic terrorists.

[crazy canuck]

I guess the anniversary date of this event and the significance of it has escaped people in Alberta.  It has been in the media here.  I assume it will be much more of an issue in the place where, you know, it actually happened.

This is the second attack on Quebec you have made out of right field.  You sure you are not consuming some odd social media these days.

Get your facts straight - it's an attack on the BQ, not on Quebec.

And I found the story on the CBC politics website.

The Liberals and COnservatives responded saying that the focus of attention on the anniversary should be on the death of Pierre Laporte at the hands of domestic terrorists.

Ok I will amend.  This is the second attack on the BQ you have made right out of right field.

I guess you are just a product of your environment