[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[PRC]

So hey guys - here's the Liberals posting an online attack ad trying to use Poilievre's apple-eating viral video against himself.  When the reporter accuses Poilievre from "taking a page out of Donald Trump's book", and Poilievre responds by saying "Page?  What page?  Show me the page" - they then intercut between Trump and Poilievre using very similar phrases.

https://twitter.com/liberal_party/status/1719085402710007949

Now I'm not the intended audience here.  I found it incredibly disingenuous - if you looked hard enough your could probably do a similar video of Trump and Trudeau himself (although probably not using some of the exact same phrases).

But what do you guys think?  Is this an effective attack?

After watching the video I can honestly say that Poilievre is basically Trump.

[HVC]

Also, I don't know why you're discounting the phrases used, that the important part. I'm sure Trudeau has used words that trump has, that's how languages work .

[Admiral Yi]

Yeah, that part is silly Beeb.  I'm sure Trump and Trudeau have both used "the" and "a."  We all know the catch phrases.

[Sheilbh]

Now I'm not the intended audience here.  I found it incredibly disingenuous - if you looked hard enough your could probably do a similar video of Trump and Trudeau himself (although probably not using some of the exact same phrases).

This is probably true.

But what do you guys think?  Is this an effective attack?

Six of one, half dozen of the other. I think as an ad it works - it's smart.

I think for it to be effective - the question is who is it going to convince and who is trying to convince.

I think whether it's effective or not depends on who the target is. It may be it's an online ad to excite the base/party activists online in which case it'll be effective. If the target audience is undecided voters or Liberal-Tory swing voters, I'm not so sure.

Looking at the latest polling where the Conservatives are on around 40%-ish. To me that indicates that a significant enough portion of Canadians who didn't vote Conservative last time don't think he's like Trump. I very much doubt this will change their mind. People have seen him for a couple of years and they're forming an opinion - from what I've seen and the polls, I don't think that opinion is that he's Trump. But it'd be interesting to see/hear what focus groups are saying - if that is the almost sub-conscious doubt then it might work. Given how much it's been discussed here and from what I see on social media I don't think this is that though.

My guess and I could be totally wrong, is that I suspect it will be popular with people who are already planning to vote Liberal/who haven't swung. I think there's a risk it resonates so well with them that it could possibly trap them in a strategy that, I'd suspect, won't work. It's maybe a little Lincoln Project in that way.

[HVC]

Don't discount the  new votes he does get from the conservatives that are happy he's like trump

[Sheilbh]

Sure - but wouldn't they find the ad persuasive?

[Grey Fox]

Finally, some reaction from the Liberals.

And no, BB. I don't think you can do the same with Trudeau regarding Trump.

[HVC]

Sure - but wouldn't they find the ad persuasive?

Yes I thought that was what I was saying

[Jacob]

As a political marketing strategy, I think it's fundamentally sound.

Canadians tend to swing from Conservative to Liberal when they think the Conservative program is too extreme, too American, and too callous. Trump embodies that, and will likely continue representing that tendency in the eyes of Canadians. Poilievre's current strategy is to convince Canadians that he's folksy, not a wonk; that he's middle of the road, not catering to wacky radical rightists. You know, a classic tack to the centre relatability play - and IMO that makes sense for him.

Attempting to tie any of Poilievre's new folksiness to Trump (who embodies "too far right" for many Canadians) or to make it look stilted in the eyes of Canadian is a good idea, as is attempting to tie him to Trump (as he's largely not seen as "middle of the road"). Is it going to be enough for the Liberals, who knows. It be useful for them if they could find some sort of strategy to refresh Trudeau and counter that Trudeau-fatigue, because that seems a pretty big factor right now (and they seem unlikely to have a leadership change).

[Sheilbh]

Yes I thought that was what I was saying

Whoops - sorry. Misunderstood

[Barrister]

So Donald Trump is a pretty unpopular figure in Canada.  Not universally so (I think I may have mentioned my dad is a big fan), but yes - if the Liberals can convince people that Pierre Poilievre is just a poutine-flavoured Trump that is definitely good for them.

My question was more whether you found that ad was effective in doing so?

[Grey Fox]

I think it is but I already knew that Poilievre hates me.

[HVC]

I think so. I mean it's comparing direct quotes. Hard to argue you're different from the other guy when you're saying the same thing.

Effective in making the link. I personally dont think, when the pens to the ballot, most conservatives will care he's Poutine Trump. They'll vote for the C.

[Jacob]

I think so. I mean it's comparing direct quotes. Hard to argue you're different from the other guy when you're saying the same thing.

Effective in making the link. I personally dont think, when the pens to the ballot, most conservatives will care he's Poutine Trump. They'll vote for the C.

I think the battle is for people who have voted for Trudeau in the past, but who are fatigued of him. If they think the choice is between a Tiresome-by-now Trudeau and an inoffensive Conservative, they're much likely to vote C than if the choice is between Tiresome-by-now Trudeau and Poutine Trump.

[HVC]

True enough. Hopefully showing more ads like this showing Poilievre's true nature will help.

Wish the libs had a better candidate.