[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Josephus]

Also a bit comforting PP could not go full Trump YET, at least not in Quebec.

Fixed your post

[crazy canuck]

Also a bit comforting PP could not go full Trump YET, at least not in Quebec.

Fixed your post

I accept the amendment.

[Barrister]

So I have mixed thoughts on Pierre Poilievre.

I previously said how much I liked him as an opposition MP.  He had a very direct, no-nonsense method of asking questions that was very effective on Parliamentary panels that looked into things like the WE Charity,

Yet in his leadershp campaign I was very much turned off by how he really leaned into the pro-truckers protest, and he definitely has taken a populist and Trumpy tone.  I did not vote for Pierre Poilievre in the CPC leadership race.

But a Trumpy tone does not mean he's the same as Trump.  What made Trump impossible to support was his obvious character defects: he's a narcissist and habitual liar.  These things to not apply to PP.  I have no reason to suspect that if PP loses the election he'll try to overthrow Canadian democracy.

So lets see how the next few years shape up.  Politics 101 would dictate that you run to your base in the leadership race, then run to the middle in a general election.  Let's see what PP does as Leader of the Opposition.  Trudeau is vulnerable, and it'd only take a shift of a few points for the Conservatives to win.  Unfortunately Trudeau was vulnerable the last two elections, and the Conservatives weren't able to pull it off.

[Oexmelin]

PP is an attack dog. Harper used him to great effect when he wanted cheap, dirty attacks on opposition figures but didn't want to look like he was the one dragging others in the mud.

PP may not be Trump, but his style very much stems from the same space where "owning the libs" can often stand for an actual program. One thing seems for sure: he's not the one who will elevate political discourse in this country. See also: response to the very anodyne Rayes campaigning (ineffectually) for Charest.

[Jacob]

I certainly expect everyone to the left of PP to be vilified by PP's team and pointing out the potential negative consequences of PP's various programs to be dismissed as "liberal tears" no matter what. I hope, of course, to be proven wrong but those are my expectations.

[Jacob]

Also, calling the occupation of Ottawa the "Trucker Convoy" is IMO incorrect. Very few actual truckers were involved in the planning of the protest, and the proportion of truckers among the protestors was quite low. At the same time, most groups representing actual truckers came out against the protest.

[Barrister]

Also, calling the occupation of Ottawa the "Trucker Convoy" is IMO incorrect. Very few actual truckers were involved in the planning of the protest, and the proportion of truckers among the protestors was quite low. At the same time, most groups representing actual truckers came out against the protest.

While this is true, I think everyone knows that and "trucker convoy" is an easy shorthand to use.

[Oexmelin]

The Tucker convoy, perhaps.

[crazy canuck]

So lets see how the next few years shape up.  Politics 101 would dictate that you run to your base in the leadership race, then run to the middle in a general election.  Let's see what PP does as Leader of the Opposition.  Trudeau is vulnerable, and it'd only take a shift of a few points for the Conservatives to win.  Unfortunately Trudeau was vulnerable the last two elections, and the Conservatives weren't able to pull it off.

I think there is good reason to believe the usual political calculus is no longer valid.  He attracted hundreds of thousands of new members to the party - all of whom came because of the extremist views his was trumpeting during the leadership contest.  So many new members in fact that they are now the core of the party.  So pivoting to a more moderate position will be very difficult for him (even if one assumes he would ever take a moderate position).

The other factor is the quick demise of his predecessor, when he tried to do this.  Why would PP take that risk - again even if he wanted to?

The most important factor is I have not seen PP ever take anything but an extreme position.

[Sheilbh]

So lets see how the next few years shape up.  Politics 101 would dictate that you run to your base in the leadership race, then run to the middle in a general election.  Let's see what PP does as Leader of the Opposition.  Trudeau is vulnerable, and it'd only take a shift of a few points for the Conservatives to win.  Unfortunately Trudeau was vulnerable the last two elections, and the Conservatives weren't able to pull it off.

Also I think being seen as an attack dog as leader of the opposition is a little bit of a risk because I think it risks people not being abe to imagine you as PM. There's a reason leaders normally outsource their most brutal attacks to a deputy of some sort.

I think there's a particular risk if that's your tone because most people won't know who a LOTO is when they get elected because most people don't pay attention and you don't have much time to create first impressions. I'm not sure being seen as doing "opposition politics" is the best first impression to create.

Practically LOTO is the most thankless, difficult job in politics in systems like ours because 90% of the time no-one will be paying attention to you and if they are it's because things are going badly. It's all about exploiting those brief moments, like when you win the leadership, when you're the main story and creating the impression/narrative you want.

My instinct is always that an MP in an opposition party who makes the base happy is a bad choice for the leadership

[viper37]

So lets see how the next few years shape up.  Politics 101 would dictate that you run to your base in the leadership race, then run to the middle in a general election.  Let's see what PP does as Leader of the Opposition. 

I've already seen enough to disgust me.

I agree with politics 101.  I disagree with your optimism.  He has rallied the extremists of Bernier's party and he'll keep on pushing to keep them.

He only apologized to Rayes because he was cornered by all his advisors who somehow managed to make him realize this will make him look real bad in front of the electorate come election time and the best thing to do is to let Rayes quietly go rather than antagonize the 32% that didn't vote for you.  You want them in your party, not indirectly campaigning for the Libs.

I maintain my prediction that he is unfit to be PM of this country and the Libs spin doctors will make sure Canadians see it (with a lot of hyperbole, of course), henceforth, he shall not win the next election and we'll be stuck with Trudeau for a 4th mandate.

[Josephus]

Globe and Mail tweet this morning

Unlike the tens of thousands of people joining the eight-kilometre queue along the River Thames, Mr. Trudeau used a special VIP entrance to pay his respects to Queen Elizabeth.

 

[HVC]

If he was truly a man of the people he'd wait in line


See, it's stupid things like this that clouds legitimate  criticism of Trudeau. If you complain about everything down to how he breathes you lose peoples attention.

[Valmy]

He also probably failed to don sackcloth and ashes so as to appropriately mourn Canada's divinely appointed ruler. Monster.

[Grey Fox]

Why does the Globe & Mail hates the security personnel?