[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Malthus]

Should Andrew Scheer resign?

The Cons made seat gains, but despite all the Liberal scandals and corruption the Conservatives failed to unseat them.  Based on Languish alone their climate plan (or lack thereof) did not resonate and the rest of their message clearly didn't gain traction outside of their traditional regions.  Scheer has the charisma of a pebble, his French will not win him any friends in Quebec - their failure cannot be laid entirely at his feet as the overall Conservative message appeared to be empty platitudes about Trudeau rather than their own policies but one does wonder what could have been if they had someone with a pulse at the helm?

This article suggest 63% of Canadians believe he should resign, including 4 in 10 Conservative voters.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6066971/canada-election-seats-scheer-resign-poll/

This election was definitely one the Cons could have won, if they played their cards right. The Libs were plagued by scandals, Trudeau personally vulnerable as implicated in them. Plus he still isn't seen as particularly competent. The one thing Trudeau has going fr him, is his opposition to Trump, which the vast majority of Canadians approve of.

What the Cons had to do to win, I think, was two-fold:

1. Demonstrate they are not Trump lite. This is particularly so because Ontario was a key battleground province, and the Ontario Cons under Ford are very unpopular because they are seen as Trump lite. I know the federal and provincial parties are very different, but many in Ontario at least were, as it were, looking at the federal Cons to see if they were doing stuff like the provincial ones. Simply attacking Trudeau and promising cuts in spending isn't enough.

2. Articulate a positive message and platform, something more than 'we are not the Liberals'.

[Camerus]

Scheer was, if not quite a liability for the Conservatives, not much of an asset either.  He failed to articulate a clear vision that resonated with Canadians, often seemed wooden and afraid to go much beyond rehearsed talking points, and failed to grasp that climate change was among the paramount issues in this election. He also is a charismatic blackhole and appears to have lied about his work background.

This election was a great opportunity for the Conservatives, but they failed to win many seats outside their WC base.

Ordinarily, I'd say Sheer should resign immediately - however in this instance that judgment is tempered only by the fact that there may be some strategic benefit to his party to having him stay on for a while given the Liberal minority.

[crazy canuck]

Scheer was, if not quite a liability for the Conservatives, not much of an asset either.  He failed to articulate a clear vision that resonated with Canadians, often seemed wooden and afraid to go much beyond rehearsed talking points, and failed to grasp that climate change was among the paramount issues in this election. He also is a charismatic blackhole and appears to have lied about his work background.

I agree with all of that.  Add to that the scathing criticism Chantel Hebert leveled at him on election night.  She said his TVA debate performance was the worst she had ever seen.

[PRC]

There's no obvious candidates.

Michael Chong could win a general election for the Cons, though would likely never get out of a leadership race.  They may no longer have seats or be retired, but I believe they're still all active with the party... Peter Mackay, Lisa Raitt and Rona Ambrose would all be upgrades on Scheer.

[Malthus]

It seems to me the Cons are a bit trapped by their Alberta base.

They can't make too much of the environmental issue, because doing so risks Albertains taking that to be a coded attack on Alberta; they can't just assume Albertains will stay loyal to the party anyway, because Alberta has a history of creating splinter parties if they think the Cons aren't supporting Alberta enough.

Thus the more the rest of Canada gets concerned about global warming, the harder things get for the Cons.

[crazy canuck]

It seems to me the Cons are a bit trapped by their Alberta base.

They can't make too much of the environmental issue, because doing so risks Albertains taking that to be a coded attack on Alberta; they can't just assume Albertains will stay loyal to the party anyway, because Alberta has a history of creating splinter parties if they think the Cons aren't supporting Alberta enough.

Thus the more the rest of Canada gets concerned about global warming, the harder things get for the Cons.

Yep, the Reform party keeps giving.... to the Liberals.

[Barrister]

So speaking of Alberta... it's budget day today.

Kenney has systematically laid the groundwork for some kind of cuts.  He's stated plainly the need to reduce government expenditures, pointing out how Alberta has higher per capita costs than anywhere else in Canada.  He had panel study the issue over the summer, which said reductions in expenditures was necessary.  He very carefully waited until after the Federal election, to ensure no blowback against the Federal Conservatives.

As a provincial public servant, it's all quite worrisome...

[Grey Fox]

and really, really dumb.

Put up at 7% PST, ffs.

[Barrister]

and really, really dumb.

Put up at 7% PST, ffs.

No, Kenney's right.  We have to get spending under control.  It's just a matter of how they go about doing it.  I'm certainly hoping that they do it in a calculated manner, rather than just announcing say a 5% cur across the board to all departments.

[crazy canuck]

In economic hard times, not exactly a textbook move to cut unless one follows the tried and failed austerity hand book.

[Camerus]

I'd support a 3% PST in Alberta as a way to help stabilize revenues while still maintaining by far the lowest rate in the provinces.

That said, getting spending under control is clearly a priority as well.

But one thing that makes this austerity program more galling than necessary is the accompanying massive 33% cut to corporate taxes.

[crazy canuck]

Classic reduce the size of the state move.  Blame deficits for cutting services.  Reduce tax revenue to create additional deficits. Rinse and repeat.

[PRC]

Gary Mason wrote a good article on the Alberta deficit / sales tax topic with some comparisons to BC back in November 2017: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/no-one-should-feel-sorry-for-alberta/article36782945/

A 7% sales tax in Alberta would cover the deficit.  A 5% sales tax would put a serious dent in it.

[Barrister]

Kenney said yesterday that the cuts will be 2.8%, and reductions in the public service will be through retirement and regular attrition.

Again, depends how you do this.  We'll see in an hour.

[Barrister]

Justice spending is flat.  This government had previously said they'd hire some new prosecutors, that is being honoured (so budget does go up slightly for that purpose).  Advanced Education takes a bit of a hit, and tuition freeze is lifted.  Government intends to shrink size of public service by 7.7% over 3 years - largely bypeople quitting / retiring.  Not sure how they do that without freezing hiring, which I have not heard.  Government is not budgeting for any wage increases for 3 years.  Public service wages of course have been frozen for 4 years already.

We'll see what AUPE has to say.  Under their contracts they're supposed to go to binding arbitration.