[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Jacob]

Anyhow, BB, I'm not arguing that there should be a big change or that bringing in parents or grandparents should receive higher or even anywhere near the same priority as bringing in spouses or kids for adoption or anything like that. The system is fundamentally sound.

Having to wait six to seven years kind of sucks, but okay fair enough. There's a process, there's a reasonable way to go about it and eventually it works out. It's the "no actual policy change" resulting in a doubling of the wait time that's causing me to be unhappy about the whole thing. Eleven, twelve or thirteen years is a lot longer to wait.

Thus, for me it's a defining political issue.

[Jacob]

This should be a lesson to all immigrants. Get your citizenship.

Doesn't really matter in this case. There's no way my riding is going Conservative.

I can still volunteer for nearby campaigns where the Conservatives are competitive however.

[Jacob]

That's unfortunate, but perhaps not unexpected.  I don't imagine that mixed Danish-Dhinese first generation immigrant families that work in cultural industry is a very likely Conservative demographic.

Well the Danish-Chinese demographic is pretty small worldwide, cultural industry or not, so I'm used to that.

Llike I've been saying other than this and the occasional whiff of regressive social conservatism there's nothing about the Conservatives I find particularly loathsome.

My socialist days are over, so while I don't have the instictual loathing of the NDP that some have, I'm still not that fond of their granola fringe of the party.

Similarly, the Liberals are sort of... mostly inoffensive, except when they fuck up.

So all in all, by the time I do have my citizenship I'll be like many Canadians - I'll think all the parties suck, and pick the one that's the least obnoxious this time around. It's just that this one issue will leave a pretty deep and lasting mark of obnoxiousness.

Ah well - in a democracy you're never going to please all of the people, all of the time.

Definitely.

Depending on how this issue plays - if it plays at all, of course - it could potentially cost the Conservatives their seat in Richmond. There's a lot of Chinese out there, and they might care.

On the other hand, the Conservative incumbent is Chinese, while the Liberal challenger is not - Joe Peschisolido (a former Reform party member even), so that could make up for that.

Glad to hear you're planning on getting your citizenship.

I'm more Canadian than anything else. The only reason I don't have my Canadian citizenship is that the Danes are being dicks (as we often are).

[crazy canuck]

An Immigration Canada official saying "it would be wrong to infer how many people Canada will actually welcome" does not alter the fact that there's been an almost 30 percent reduction in the number of visas issued in the reunification category as a matter of policy (see above).

So far all you have to support your assertion that there has been a change in policy is a immigration lawyer the Province cites as an immigation "expert" saying that the wait time as somehow jumped  to 13 years without any indication how he could possibly come to such an assessment.  A Liberal MP who is making hay of the issue and you have pointed to the fact that immigration Canada frequently doesnt meet its own goals.

Seems to me if you are not meeting your goals it is a good time to reassess whether those goals are realistic or not and if they are not realistic they you should be setting them at realistic levels.  It is a basic matter of resource allocation and managment.  Also you said your family was personally impacted.  I doubt it since the original article noted that most of the decline in goal quota was coming from India and the quota from China was actually increasing!

[crazy canuck]

Having to wait six to seven years kind of sucks, but okay fair enough. There's a process, there's a reasonable way to go about it and eventually it works out. It's the "no actual policy change" resulting in a doubling of the wait time that's causing me to be unhappy about the whole thing. Eleven, twelve or thirteen years is a lot longer to wait.

Thus, for me it's a defining political issue.

That lawyers estimate seems way out of wack to me.  He is taking an estimate based on the "decline" in the goal immigration Canada sets for itself then extrapolating that decline over current wait periods.  But if the data you cited is correct there will actually be no increase in wait times since all that has happened is the goals have been brought down to what has been occurring.

[crazy canuck]

Depending on how this issue plays - if it plays at all, of course - it could potentially cost the Conservatives their seat in Richmond. There's a lot of Chinese out there, and they might care.

Which is probably exactly why this issue has recieved the kind fear tactics it has.

[Jacob]

So far all you have to support your assertion....

Is the CIC's own website showing a drastic reduction in the number of admissions in the relevant category. As I linked in my post above.

Also you said your family was personally impacted.  I doubt it since the original article noted that most of the decline in goal quota was coming from India and the quota from China was actually increasing!

The quota from Beijing is increasing. For some reason the Canadian authorities give preference to Beijing residents when processing visas of all sorts.

But like I said, in two years if the processing time hasn't significantly increased I'll be very happy have been proven wrong, and you can put me down as a potential Conservative voter again. Right now, not so much.

Presently, the processing time in New Delhi is faster than Beijing, by the way: http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/information/times/perm/fc-parents.asp

[Jacob]

That lawyers estimate seems way out of wack to me.  He is taking an estimate based on the "decline" in the goal immigration Canada sets for itself then extrapolating that decline over current wait periods.  But if the data you cited is correct there will actually be no increase in wait times since all that has happened is the goals have been brought down to what has been occurring.

Uhm no... in 2009 they processed 17179 given a goal set to be between 18000 to 19000. Then in 2010 they reduced the goal to 15000 to 18000 (we don't have the number actually processed). Then in 2011 they reduced the goal even further, to 13000 to 17500. This while they've increased the targetted number of admissions for other groups, while keeping the total number the same. That, to me, seems a pretty strong indication that wait times are going to increase.

If the actual number of relevant admitted persons come in at around 17000 per year for 2010 and 2011, then the estimates are, as you say, out of whack but then why drop the bottom range so drastically? On the other hand, if they come in a little below the bottom of the acceptable range (as they have previously) then that means a significant slowdown.

But like I said, I'd be happy to be wrong on this - especially since we're likely to get another Conservative government after the election.

[Jacob]

Which is probably exactly why this issue has recieved the kind fear tactics it has.

Or alternately, why it's been buried in "bureaucratic resource allocation" as it has.

[garbon]

they usually say they want to mimick Canada.
Bush did it in his 2000 campaigne ("He wants Canada!"  -shock&horror from the crowd ) and the Tea Partyers/GOP are also using that line for the health care reform.

I think Dems are more likely to be painted as Europeans which was also heavily trumpeted with regards to healthcare reform.  I don't think suggesting that a dem leader was like a canadian would carry much negative currency here.

[garbon]

I don't think I've ever heard Republicans call Democrats Canadians.  They used to call them Russkies a lot, but now they also call some of them (OK, really just one of them) Nigerian or Indonesian as well.

Nigerian?

[crazy canuck]

It is done.  Will this be a case of the Liberals and NDP regretting what they wished for?

[Jacob]

[cue dramatic drumroll]

So how are people voting here?

[Josephus]

In my riding, I'll have to vote strategically--that is to say for the candidate closest to defeating the incumbent Conservative. That means probably NDP who lost last time by 3,000 votes.

[Barrister]

[cue dramatic drumroll]

So how are people voting here?

Reform Party.