Libyan Civil War Megathread

[jimmy olsen]

Looks like the Rebels are making some progress in the west.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-libya-rebels-20110627,0,3634474.story

Problem is that rebels so far has proven bad at taking and holding on to larger towns. Also after Bir Ghanam and the Nafusa Mountains is there open plain all around, again to the disadvantage of the rebels, as seen out side Misrata in the west and the oil twon of Brega in the east...

Shouldn't NATO air assets be able to pound Government forces in the open?

Tanks and artillery, yes. Lightly armed soldiers, no...

You would be surprised to see how mush a single infantry company, supported by a few light mortars can do again a disorganized mob like the Libyan rebels...

Time to bring out the napalm.

[dps]

Looks like the Rebels are making some progress in the west.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-libya-rebels-20110627,0,3634474.story

Problem is that rebels so far has proven bad at taking and holding on to larger towns. Also after Bir Ghanam and the Nafusa Mountains is there open plain all around, again to the disadvantage of the rebels, as seen out side Misrata in the west and the oil twon of Brega in the east...

Shrug. Just because they are not good at something now doesn't mean they won't be good at it later. It takes time to train a bunch of rebels. The writing is on the wall for the government forces, it is just a matter of time.

It's not like there is some kind of huge hurry, and if the rebels don't win in the next 6 weeks they lose or something.

Actually, they lose 5 Victory Points per turn starting with the Aug I turn if Gaddafi is still holding on. 

[Sheilbh]

Shrug. Just because they are not good at something now doesn't mean they won't be good at it later. It takes time to train a bunch of rebels. The writing is on the wall for the government forces, it is just a matter of time.

It's not like there is some kind of huge hurry, and if the rebels don't win in the next 6 weeks they lose or something.

And the rebels are moving forward taking the road that connects Tripoli to Tunisia and so on.  I also, to be honest, think their resilience is impressive.  They need - and are getting training - but I think, especially in Misrata, they deserve a lot more respect.  The NYT's reporting has been superb:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/17/world/africa/17misurata.html

[Tamas]

Shrug. Just because they are not good at something now doesn't mean they won't be good at it later. It takes time to train a bunch of rebels. The writing is on the wall for the government forces, it is just a matter of time.

It's not like there is some kind of huge hurry, and if the rebels don't win in the next 6 weeks they lose or something.

And the rebels are moving forward taking the road that connects Tripoli to Tunisia and so on.  I also, to be honest, think their resilience is impressive.  They need - and are getting training - but I think, especially in Misrata, they deserve a lot more respect.  The NYT's reporting has been superb:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/17/world/africa/17misurata.html

Tribal savages like to wage war. 

[dps]

Shrug. Just because they are not good at something now doesn't mean they won't be good at it later. It takes time to train a bunch of rebels. The writing is on the wall for the government forces, it is just a matter of time.

It's not like there is some kind of huge hurry, and if the rebels don't win in the next 6 weeks they lose or something.

And the rebels are moving forward taking the road that connects Tripoli to Tunisia and so on.  I also, to be honest, think their resilience is impressive.  They need - and are getting training - but I think, especially in Misrata, they deserve a lot more respect.  The NYT's reporting has been superb:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/17/world/africa/17misurata.html

Tribal savages like to wage war. 

I guess a Magyar would know.

[Tamas]

Shrug. Just because they are not good at something now doesn't mean they won't be good at it later. It takes time to train a bunch of rebels. The writing is on the wall for the government forces, it is just a matter of time.

It's not like there is some kind of huge hurry, and if the rebels don't win in the next 6 weeks they lose or something.

And the rebels are moving forward taking the road that connects Tripoli to Tunisia and so on.  I also, to be honest, think their resilience is impressive.  They need - and are getting training - but I think, especially in Misrata, they deserve a lot more respect.  The NYT's reporting has been superb:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/17/world/africa/17misurata.html

Tribal savages like to wage war. 

I guess a Magyar would know.

yep, we had an American base here in the 90s

[mongers]

France air-dropped arms ("humanitarian aid") to rebels in Western Libya

Libya conflict: France air-dropped arms to rebels
29 June 11 15:21

France has air-dropped weapons to rebels fighting Col Muammar Gaddafi's troops in Western Libya, the French military has confirmed.

Light arms and ammunition were sent to Berber tribal fighters in the Nafusa mountains in early June, it said.

Earlier, a report in Le Figaro newspaper said the arms included rocket launchers and anti-tank missiles.

France, a leading force in the Nato operation in Libya, did not inform its allies about the move, Le Figaro said.

"We began by dropping humanitarian aid: food, water and medical supplies," said Col Thierry Burkhard, spokesman for the French general staff.

"During the operation, the situation for the civilians on the ground worsened. We dropped arms and means of self-defence, mainly ammunition," he told AFP.

He said the arms were "light infantry weapons of the rifle type", dropped over a period of several days "so that civilians would not be massacred".

The BBC's Christian Fraser in Paris says the statement is likely to bring further criticism from the likes of Russia and China, who believe Nato and its allies have already gone beyond the remit of the UN resolution authorising international military action in Libya for the protection of civilians.
......

Rest of item here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/mobile/world-africa-13955751

[DGuller]

This whole Libyan situation reminds me of Civ V, when you're trying to help the city-state under attack with units.  After you give them a couple of helicopters, and they proceed to leave them out in the open and have them destroyed by everyone who's not lazy, you just say fuck it, and obliterate the invading force yourself with your own helicopters, stealth bombers, and mech infantry.

[Grey Fox]

France really needs to just escalate Operation Épervier & be done with this shit.

[derspiess]

Wes Clark was a whiny little bitch.  He couldn't even win the respect of his subordinates, so what made him think he could win the respect of a nation?

Say something about Al Haig now.

[Valmy]

France really needs to just escalate Operation Épervier & be done with this shit.

But that might make it unpopular in France.  Best to try to fight a war without anybody noticing.

[Ed Anger]

I wonder if they have withdrawn the De Gaulle yet. It was due to be rotated out.

[Mr.Penguin]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8611199/Sudanese-army-seizes-southern-Libyan-town.html

Sudanese army seizes southern Libyan town

The Sudanese army has seized a town in southern Libya that is the gateway to oilfields crucial to rebel hopes of establishing financial independence.

By Damien McElroy, Foreign Affairs Correspondent

10:21PM BST 01 Jul 2011

Officials overseeing the no-fly zone enforced by Nato over Libya said the Sudanese move north of border had not encountered resistance from troops loyal to Col Muammar Gaddafi.

Since the February uprising against his regime, the Libyan leader's forces have been concentrated around Tripoli, the capital; Sirte, the eastern town that is Col Gaddafi's birthplace and Sebha, the desert outpost where the dictator grew up.

Officials said control of the town of Kufra and nearby military base granted the Sudanese a key strategic foothold between the regime and the opposition Transitional National Council (TNC) which holds the eastern seaboard and a series of rebel enclaves.

The Sudanese have not disrupted efforts to resume oil production on nearby southern oilfields.

"Our surveillance shows that they are not moving oil, so its not about money in the short term," said one Western official. "The commercial oil companies monitoring is reporting that there has been no movement of oil out of Libya.

But the Sudanese clearly now have a stake in Libya re-emerging in the oil market.

"The Gaddafi army was coming in and taking out the oilfields every time the rebels start pumping oil. They've dismantled the fields quite carefully so the rebels need security down there. Clearly there needs to be tribal support but the Sudanese could make it too risky for Gaddafi's intervention as well."

The last attack on the Mislah and Sarir oilfields took place on June 12, just days before the deployment of Sudanese forces to Kufra.

Rebel spokesmen said they hoped to produce up to 250,000 barrels per day from the oilfields and pump it along a pipeline to the Marsa al-Haringa depot near Tobruk.

Hundreds of Chadian refugees were this week reported to have fled Kufra to the Gaddafi-controlled town of Sebha.

An assessment team from the International Organisation for Migration issued an appeal for 2,000 Chadians fleeing violence across Libya to be provided a safe route home.

"There has been a lot of fighting in the Kufra area and people have decided to make their way to safer stations on the road home," said Qasim Sufi, the IOM team leader in Sirte.

British officials in Benghazi have worked closely with Libyan rebels on resuming oil pumping. Tribal leaders told a British team on May 12 that a brigade of fighters would be formed from Jalu and Kufra to protect oil infrastructure in the south.

Mustafa al-Sagezli, the deputy leader of the oil infrastructure force known as the February 17th Martyrs command, has said that pumping oil north through the pipeline can resume within weeks.

Mazen Ramadan, a financial adviser to the Transistional National Council, yesterday said the opposition was facing a cash crisis that had left it unable to pay for imports or meet salaries for its employees.

It wants its western backers to advance loans against the vast Libyan state funds frozen in US and European bank accounts.

Rebels gained access to a $100 million (£62 million) financing arrangement this week but that money has mainly been spent on medicines and basic needs.

Altogether $1 billion (£620 million) has been pledged to the (TNC) but most of the money has not been handed over.

Without oil sales, the opposition complain their administration is incapable of battling Gaddafi and running the rebel safehavens. "We don't have any money. We are working with a lot of people but it seems like a time-consuming process, and we need the money," Mr Ramadan said. "We proposed a mechanism to perhaps get loans on the frozen assets and then use this mechanism to ensure transparency."

A summit in Istanbul next month will be dominated by legal negotiations on releasing Libya reserves frozen by United Nations sanctions.

Interesting if true, espeically as we are not just talking about some minor border town, but the district capital of the Al Kufrah province. A town several 100 miles from the Sudanese border, in other words the rebels has just effectively lost control with the southern part of Cyrenaica...


edit: ups..forgot link...

[Caliga]

Cool.  Regional war, here we come.

[alfred russel]

It's not like there is some kind of huge hurry, and if the rebels don't win in the next 6 weeks they lose or something.

Wow.