North Korea adopts new war invasion strategy

[Neil]

It may not so much what China will do to directly hamper the US, as much as what they may try to demand(unofficially) for turning a blind eye.  Like Taiwan.

It's not like the US could just give Taiwan to China.

[Monoriu]

I think the "war strategy" should really be called "PR strategy".  Even they must know that their chance of winning a conventional war is zero.  This "strategy" is just their attempt in demonstrating to the NK population that there is some chance of victory.  Kinda like Hitler's miracle weapons.  Besides, why disclose the strategy?  Military plans should be top secret.  The fact that NK allows this to be leaked is further evidence that this is just PR. 

[jimmy olsen]

I think the "war strategy" should really be called "PR strategy".  Even they must know that their chance of winning a conventional war is zero.  This "strategy" is just their attempt in demonstrating to the NK population that there is some chance of victory.  Kinda like Hitler's miracle weapons.  Besides, why disclose the strategy?  Military plans should be top secret.  The fact that NK allows this to be leaked is further evidence that this is just PR.

How do you know this was leaked on purpose? A sweeping change in the strategic plan like this would be disseminated to hundreds if not thousands of officers.

[Monoriu]

I think the "war strategy" should really be called "PR strategy".  Even they must know that their chance of winning a conventional war is zero.  This "strategy" is just their attempt in demonstrating to the NK population that there is some chance of victory.  Kinda like Hitler's miracle weapons.  Besides, why disclose the strategy?  Military plans should be top secret.  The fact that NK allows this to be leaked is further evidence that this is just PR.

How do you know this was leaked on purpose? A sweeping change in the strategic plan like this would be disseminated to hundreds if not thousands of officers.

I don't know, of course.  But consider the possibilities.  Either this is leaked accidentally, or deliberately.  Which is more likely?  We're talking about one of the most secretive police states in the world.  We're talking about military plans, which should be top secret in any country.  And why do they need to tell thousands of officers?  Only the top need to know.  Considering the circumstances, my bet is: this is leaked on purpose. 

[CountDeMoney]

A good question.  How long does it take to go from an independent, totalitarian regime that governs all activities of its citizens' lives to incorporating it into a pre-existing, democratic government?  Has that ever been done before?  We have the example of West Germany for the transition, but that was a complete change and rebuilding of the country from the ground-up, albeit with some of the more benign institutions still in place.  How do you incorporate a country where basic things like running water aren't even assumed?

This is pretty much the same question we were asking about Albania a coupla decades ago.  Turned out that Albanians were a lot more aware of, and ready to join, the world as a whole than pretty much anyone had thought possible.

I dunno...white slavery, heroin and counterfeit Adidas track suits don't exactly scream joining the world in a positive way.

[Fate]

I don't think there would be much risk of this "quagmire". As far as I know there isn't any religious element to NK craziness, so I think all the "Juche" bullshit would disappear almost immediately.

Clearly nothing could go wrong once we've had a Mission Accomplished moment. These people have no nationalism. They'd embrace the foreign occupiers with open arms.

[CountDeMoney]

Indeed, which is why I think it would be pretty straightforward for the US to assure China that post-war there would not be any US bases closer to Chinese territory than there is currently, or possibly even negotiate those away as well.

Never assure or negotiate anything with those little yellow bastards.  Ever.

[Josquius]

China's best bet is to help in taking down N.Korea.
The North are a liability, they're certainly going to lose, so it just makes sense to make the war as quick and painless as possible and get a say in the future country.
Hopefully it won't end up like the game Mercenaries.
All the US would have to do to get Chinese help I think is to sign a deal about a neutral Korea after the war- which many of the S.Koreans from what I've read would like anyway, even with the north.


Post-war....
I'm torn.
On the one hand there's the whole East/West Germany thing and the gap being bigger.
However....With East Germany the West was trying to incorporate many aspects of the old system. They were trying to keep the same rights for the people there, recognising the same jobs and all that sort of thing in the East. Properly incoporating the DDR into the west.
With N.Korea meanwhile you can essentially start with a completely blank slate. In many ways things could go better there as you get to start from the ground up and do things properly and in a way fitting for a poorer country.

I think the best bet is an immediate Korean Federation- to the outside world there is one Korea. Korean sports teams, Korean foreign policy, etc... internally though there are very much two countries. They've a lot of preferential agreements with each other and all sorts of tight ties but northerners can't just move to the south on a whim. As time goes by things become ever tighter between the two until, finally, we can get a proper united Korea.

How long for N.Korea to be fixed....Well as I said its starting from scratch so in some ways its easier than eastern Europe. Just look to Russia under Stalin and before. It managed to do some crazily fast industrialisation even with a nutter randomly killing people in power. Under a more sane hand...?
On the other hand look at Albania. A horrible backwards shithole. Only now its one whose population likes to go abroad and be horrible and backwards there.
And Africa/S.America....They've had all the time in the world but nought.

[Siege]

On the other hand look at Albania. A horrible backwards shithole. Only now its one whose population likes to go abroad and be horrible and backwards there.
And Africa/S.America....They've had all the time in the world but nought.

Albanians are muslims. What did you expect, really.

Africa is teh white man fault.

South America is catholic. They have nothing of the protestant working and business ethics. Corruption is part of the stablishment, and they have no sense of citizenship, of belonging and having a common future with your fellow citizens. Plus they hate joos.

[derspiess]

South America is catholic. They have nothing of the protestant working and business ethics. Corruption is part of the stablishment, and they have no sense of citizenship, of belonging and having a common future with your fellow citizens. Plus they hate joos.

I'll be damned-- you got some of that right. 

[Viking]

The chinese are not going to help take down north korea unless north korea fucks it up too much. The chinese probably have significant paranoia stemming from a (ROK) 700,000 western equipped army on their border. The Koreans can eat shit (or in this case rocks) and die as far as the CCP is concerned, they just want the buffer. 

[Jacob]

I don't know, of course.  But consider the possibilities.  Either this is leaked accidentally, or deliberately.  Which is more likely?  We're talking about one of the most secretive police states in the world.  We're talking about military plans, which should be top secret in any country.  And why do they need to tell thousands of officers?  Only the top need to know.  Considering the circumstances, my bet is: this is leaked on purpose.

Yeah, it's not unreasonable to think the information was deliberately released by the NK regime.  I mean, how often do we get information they don't want released except through defectors?  And this information wasn't from a defector, right?

[Berkut]

The chinese are not going to help take down north korea unless north korea fucks it up too much. The chinese probably have significant paranoia stemming from a (ROK) 700,000 western equipped army on their border. The Koreans can eat shit (or in this case rocks) and die as far as the CCP is concerned, they just want the buffer. 

This.

[The Minsky Moment]

China has good and improving relations with the South.  China - South Korean commercial relationships are far more important than N Korea.  They have good strategic reasons for keeping N Korea afloat, but it is only worth so much in the way of Chinese resources to do that.  And the last thing they want is a few million starving refugees cramming the border.  If it looks like NK may be going down, China is probably better off the faster and cleaner it goes down.

[grumbler]

China has good and improving relations with the South.  China - South Korean commercial relationships are far more important than N Korea.  They have good strategic reasons for keeping N Korea afloat, but it is only worth so much in the way of Chinese resources to do that.  And the last thing they want is a few million starving refugees cramming the border.  If it looks like NK may be going down, China is probably better off the faster and cleaner it goes down.

This.  The PRC doesn't want to be seen choping down the North, but if they can see a way to help it happen quickly and easily, they will do it.

They don't fear an invasion by South Korea, IMO.  The South Koreans have no reason to invade, and many not to.  The buffer state idea was valid when SK was pretty much a US puppet, but not any longer.