North Korea adopts new war invasion strategy

[Berkut]

True. Although this isn't the 50s - the gap between US and Chinese military capabilities is simply...immense.

For example, unlike in KW1, we could pretty much drop every single bridge over the Yalu river and keep them down for good.

Which doesn't mean that I think a Chinese intervention would not be problematic, but I wonder if China *would* intervene again?

The relationship between China and the West politically and economically is also drastically different.

Yeah, I don't think the Chinese would want to bring their army into North Korea or otherwise fight the US directly.  I don't think they'd think it was worth it, unless a nasty combination of nationalism and "incidents" put them in a position where they had to or face serious trouble at home.

I'd imagine that they'd do some sort of supply of materiel and intel, to make American and RoK losses as high as possible while obstructing peaceful resolutions for as long as possible.  Basically, I figure they'd fight a proxy war with the aim being to hold as many cards when the situation finally settles down.  Because I think the Chinese bottom line in any kind of NK scenario is that they don't want the US having military access to their border with Korea.

Indeed, which is why I think it would be pretty straightforward for the US to assure China that post-war there would not be any US bases closer to Chinese territory than there is currently, or possibly even negotiate those away as well.

After all, a westernized Korea could defend itself from China just fine without needing US forces on the ground. Probably could just have a US base in the southern end somewhere, and that would be adequate.

Lastly, a Korea on the border of China that is wealthy and such would be a economic boon to the Chinese, wouldn't it? Another close market for Chinese goods.

[Jacob]

Actually, again assuming the nukes don't fly - how easily could SK and the US take out NK assuming we attacked them with the intent of re-unifying the country under the SK government?

I'm not qualified to comment on the military aspect, but the real challenge would be the post-war unification and pacification - as in Iraq and Afghanistan.  If everything goes perfectly on a military front (few civilian casualties, China gets some sort of quid pro quo so they don't interfere) I think it'd be a big challenge, but primarily for the North Koreans.  If, on the other hand, there are lot of civilian deaths on both sides, Seoul and other infrastructure is seriously damaged and the Chinese stir the pot as much as they can it could get pretty ugly.

In any kind of war scenario my worries, on a strategic level, would be:

1. Escalation and conflagration of fighting to pit US vs China (I don't think it's high risk, but the consequences are dire if it does come to pass).

2. Damage to Seoul and South Korean infrastructure, as well as massive civilian deaths, making post war unification more difficult.

3. The degree to which North Korea could turn into some sort of quagmire.  I have no idea to what degree NK would collapse like a house of cards on one hand or turn quagmire after the conventional forces were taken care of on the other, nor how much ability China has to influence it in either direction; but that would be high on my list of things to worry about.  I don't think the conventional war is that big of a problem in the end (beyond 2 above) - it's the aftermath I'd worry about.

[Berkut]

I don't think there would be much risk of this "quagmire". As far as I know there isn't any religious element to NK craziness, so I think all the "Juche" bullshit would disappear almost immediately. In fact, I would bet dollars to donuts that most people even in NK don't truly buy into it anyway. Just what must be parroted to keep from getting shipped off to some prison camp somewhere.

I think post war unification would be economically difficult and very expensive. Emotionally, I think it would be pretty straightforward. I think, from what I have seen, most Koreans think of themselves as "Korean", not "South Korean", for example, and would pretty much just blame all the bad parts on the idiotic NK regime, rather than hold any particular animosity towards the NK people.

If anything, I think the biggest cultural issue might be that SKians just look down on their poor bumpkin country cousins from the North.

[Jacob]

Indeed, which is why I think it would be pretty straightforward for the US to assure China that post-war there would not be any US bases closer to Chinese territory than there is currently, or possibly even negotiate those away as well.

After all, a westernized Korea could defend itself from China just fine without needing US forces on the ground. Probably could just have a US base in the southern end somewhere, and that would be adequate.

Lastly, a Korea on the border of China that is wealthy and such would be a economic boon to the Chinese, wouldn't it? Another close market for Chinese goods.

That sounds like a best case scenario, and one to hope for should something like this come to pass.  The questions are, I guess, whether the Chinese will see it that way, whether the US will see it that way and if they feel they can trust each other.

I guess for the Chinese, the ideal outcome with a unified Korea would be one where Korea is politically closer to and more dependent on China than on the US; especially if this could be combined with chips to be used elsewhere, like Taiwan.  If China could be made to believe that to be the like outcome of a war like that, they could probably be brought on board.

[Jacob]

I don't think there would be much risk of this "quagmire". As far as I know there isn't any religious element to NK craziness, so I think all the "Juche" bullshit would disappear almost immediately. In fact, I would bet dollars to donuts that most people even in NK don't truly buy into it anyway. Just what must be parroted to keep from getting shipped off to some prison camp somewhere.

I honestly don't know.  What's the terrain like in NK?  I'm under the impression that it's pretty mountainous.

I mean, to be honest, I'd expect (and hope) that the North Koreans would be happy to get rid of the Juche despot, but I just don't know.  It's another risk factor.

I think post war unification would be economically difficult and very expensive. Emotionally, I think it would be pretty straightforward. I think, from what I have seen, most Koreans think of themselves as "Korean", not "South Korean", for example, and would pretty much just blame all the bad parts on the idiotic NK regime, rather than hold any particular animosity towards the NK people.

I think you're right that they see themselves as Korean, but I'm not sure they'd be reasonable and blame everything on the idiotic NK regime.  I'm sure that'd be the initial response, but if Seoul took a hard enough pounding and enough peoples' friends and relatives were killed and their economic aspirations pulverized, the South Koreans might start seriously resenting the country bumpkins of the North.

If anything, I think the biggest cultural issue might be that SKians just look down on their poor bumpkin country cousins from the North.

If that's the biggest issue, then things have gone pretty well in this hypothetical scenario, I think.

[Barrister]

Dunno if the example is applicable to NK, but the assumption that NK is non-functional on a people level might not be true.

A lot may depend on how sincere the following of Juche really is. It might be so shallow it collapses immediately, or it might be so ingrained that some Juche Party post-unification makes Die Linke look like amateurs. That could really bring down the New Korea if it held a sizable enough chunk of support to act as a pivot.

Not sure if it needs to be sincere or not.  By 1945 I doubt many Germans were die-hard Nazis, but they were either afraid of the ones who were, or were afraid of what allied justice would do to them (and for good reason).  While I don't really see Juche partisans taking to the hills, I an imagine NK putting up very stiff resistance.

[alfred russel]

That would be an interesting wargame project - could China interdict the US Navy and its support for US Army forces in North Korea?

I am guessing they would have a lot of trouble doing so. They couldn't do it in the first round, and I rather doubt they could do it now. And if it came down to it, and the Chinese seriously attacked US merchant shipping, resulting in an all out naval conflict, the end result is going to be that China has no navy anymore - at all.

I could imagine that if their close ashore capability is as good as some people say that the fighting could be a little bloody for the Americans, but I don't think the result would be in question.

Does the first round matter? The early 1950s was shortly after WWII, and the Chinese were bombing the US with biplanes (pre WWII technology). Even in WWII, to sink an aircraft carrier you basically needed to get a bunch of bombers or torpedo planes to point blank range of the carrier, and even then the results were mixed. My assumption is that now all you need to do is get a plane to within a couple dozen miles (not sure the range) with an anti ship missile and the ship is going to have a big problem. Plus, modern radar is going to make it difficult for a ship to hide.

I think I asked the question a while back on whether aircraft carriers would be survivable in a major modern war, and the answer seemed to be probably not.

[Josquius]

A good question.  How long does it take to go from an independent, totalitarian regime that governs all activities of its citizens' lives to incorporating it into a pre-existing, democratic government?  Has that ever been done before?  We have the example of West Germany for the transition, but that was a complete change and rebuilding of the country from the ground-up, albeit with some of the more benign institutions still in place.  How do you incorporate a country where basic things like running water aren't even assumed?

This is pretty much the same question we were asking about Albania a coupla decades ago.  Turned out that Albanians were a lot more aware of, and ready to join, the world as a whole than pretty much anyone had thought possible.

Dunno if the example is applicable to NK, but the assumption that NK is non-functional on a people level might not be true.

When did Albania join the modern world?
Will N.Koreans be: The Albanians of Asia?

[Jacob]

This is pretty much the same question we were asking about Albania a coupla decades ago.  Turned out that Albanians were a lot more aware of, and ready to join, the world as a whole than pretty much anyone had thought possible.

That's a good point.

Dunno if the example is applicable to NK, but the assumption that NK is non-functional on a people level might not be true.

Let's hope it's not.

[grumbler]

When did Albania join the modern world?

It was around 6:00 PM UCT on a Tuesday, if I recall correctly.

[Viking]

When did Albania join the modern world?
Will N.Koreans be: The Albanians of Asia?

January 2003

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Albania_to_the_European_Union

[jimmy olsen]

Dunno if the example is applicable to NK, but the assumption that NK is non-functional on a people level might not be true.

A lot may depend on how sincere the following of Juche really is. It might be so shallow it collapses immediately, or it might be so ingrained that some Juche Party post-unification makes Die Linke look like amateurs. That could really bring down the New Korea if it held a sizable enough chunk of support to act as a pivot.


NK has roughly half the population of SK, right?

No one follows Juche, the regime is built on the rock of Korean nationalism and racial superiority. And the people do believe in that.

[jimmy olsen]

That would be an interesting wargame project - could China interdict the US Navy and its support for US Army forces in North Korea?

I am guessing they would have a lot of trouble doing so. They couldn't do it in the first round, and I rather doubt they could do it now. And if it came down to it, and the Chinese seriously attacked US merchant shipping, resulting in an all out naval conflict, the end result is going to be that China has no navy anymore - at all.

I could imagine that if their close ashore capability is as good as some people say that the fighting could be a little bloody for the Americans, but I don't think the result would be in question.

Does the first round matter? The early 1950s was shortly after WWII, and the Chinese were bombing the US with biplanes (pre WWII technology). Even in WWII, to sink an aircraft carrier you basically needed to get a bunch of bombers or torpedo planes to point blank range of the carrier, and even then the results were mixed. My assumption is that now all you need to do is get a plane to within a couple dozen miles (not sure the range) with an anti ship missile and the ship is going to have a big problem. Plus, modern radar is going to make it difficult for a ship to hide.

I think I asked the question a while back on whether aircraft carriers would be survivable in a major modern war, and the answer seemed to be probably not.

Busan is hundreds of kilometers from the Chinese coast. Unless the Chinese send out their Navy they have no chance of do anything to the US navy/supply effort in Korea.

[HisMajestyBOB]

I think post war unification would be economically difficult and very expensive. Emotionally, I think it would be pretty straightforward. I think, from what I have seen, most Koreans think of themselves as "Korean", not "South Korean", for example, and would pretty much just blame all the bad parts on the idiotic NK regime, rather than hold any particular animosity towards the NK people.

If anything, I think the biggest cultural issue might be that SKians just look down on their poor bumpkin country cousins from the North.

I think you're right on the money here.
There's still officially hosted family reunions between divided families, and I've spoken with a few Koreans who's parents or grandparents were refugees from the North during the war.


The current plan for reunification, from what I've read, is to put a provisional regime in place in the North, so that you don't have a quick and sudden unification. Possibly the divided Gangwon and Gyeonggi provinces will be the first to be integrated into the South, maybe right away. Then you spend the time and money to bring the North up to select benchmarks - what those are, probably no one will know until after the Kim government collapses.

One thing that the South hasn't done yet is to set up a North Korean "government in exile" that can be put into place relatively quickly. I'm not sure if its a) because there's a lack of qualified Northern defectors (though I know there's several mid- to high-ranking ones), b) they don't want to do that because it might be an implicit recognition two Korean independent states (like the One-China issue), or c) it does exist, but they're keeping it under wraps to prevent North Korean infiltration, or assassination of key members of said G-i-E.

[Tonitrus]

It may not so much what China will do to directly hamper the US, as much as what they may try to demand(unofficially) for turning a blind eye.  Like Taiwan.