North Korea adopts new war invasion strategy

[jimmy olsen]

Well...it's more realistic than there last plan.

http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2919725

North adopts new war invasion strategy: source
April 27, 2010
The North Korean military has recently altered its wartime contingency plans against South Korea to concentrate on attacking the Seoul metropolitan region, a military source said yesterday. South Korean commanders will meet next month to discuss the change and their response to it.

According to the high-ranking source, the North's military recently decided to do away with the so-called "Five-to-Seven" plans dating from the 1980s to adopt a new plan in which it would occupy only a part of South Korea and start negotiating a cease-fire.

"We believe the North made the change to better deal with the upgraded weapons systems of the U.S. and South Korean forces," the source explained.

In the previous plan, the numerals five and seven refer to the number of days North Korea believed it would take to occupy all of South Korea. Under that plan, the North's frontline mechanized units would bulldoze through the South for about a week before gaining control of the country.

With the new plan, the North would concentrate its early fire on Seoul and neighboring areas, where most of South Korea's social and economic infrastructure is located.

"North Korea would try to occupy Seoul early," the source said. "And from there, it could either try to go farther south, or try to negotiate [for a cease-fire] from an advantageous position."

A military expert who requested anonymity said the North took cues from the Gulf War in 1991 and Iraq War in 2003. Iraqi forces had armored vehicles similar to the North's, but they were destroyed by the U.S. military's precision strike weapons. North Korea, in other words, has concluded that if its mechanized units engaged in old-fashioned combat without extra help, they would be no match for the more sophisticated U.S. weapons systems.

As part of the change, North Korea has bolstered its frontline mechanized corps with extra mechanized divisions, the military source said. Also, the frontline corps have each received an extra light infantry division, and light infantry battalions on the front have been expanded to regiments.

The South Korean military also believes the North has bolstered its torpedo and sea mine capabilities against a possible U.S.-South Korea joint rear landing and has traded submarines with Iran for the latest torpedoes.

South Korean military commanders will gather early next month to discuss how to stay prepared for combat amid increasing tension with North Korea. Defense Ministry spokesman Won Tae-jae said, "Their meeting will serve as an opportunity for us to review problems surrounding the Cheonan sinking, to discuss strengthening combat preparedness on western islands and to tighten discipline for the entire armed forces."


By Kim Min-seok, Yoo Jee-ho [[email protected]]

[HisMajestyBOB]

http://www.freekorea.us/2010/04/27/new-north-korean-war-plan-grab-seoul-negotiate/

New North Korean War Plan: Grab Seoul, Negotiate

Posted by Joshua Stanton on April 27, 2010 at 6:34 am · Filed under NK Military, ROK Military

Via the Joongang Ilbo, North Korea's on-the-shelf invasion oplan no longer calls for invading all of South Korea, but in recognition of stronger U.S. and South Korean military capabilities, now calls for quickly occupying Seoul and then negotiating favorable terms.

    With the new plan, the North would concentrate its early fire on Seoul and neighboring areas, where most of South Korea's social and economic infrastructure is located.

    "North Korea would try to occupy Seoul early," the source said. "And from there, it could either try to go farther south, or try to negotiate [for a cease-fire] from an advantageous position."

I'm sure Selig Harrison would call this progress.

    A military expert who requested anonymity said the North took cues from the Gulf War in 1991 and Iraq War in 2003. Iraqi forces had armored vehicles similar to the North's, but they were destroyed by the U.S. military's precision strike weapons. North Korea, in other words, has concluded that if its mechanized units engaged in old-fashioned combat without extra help, they would be no match for the more sophisticated U.S. weapons systems.

    As part of the change, North Korea has bolstered its frontline mechanized corps with extra mechanized divisions, the military source said. Also, the frontline corps have each received an extra light infantry division, and light infantry battalions on the front have been expanded to regiments.

There may also be a recognition here of North Korea's logistical limitations — that is, its general inability to sustain an invasion with long, exposed supply lines.

I certainly don't claim to be a military expert, but I've studied enough history to know how other armies have beaten back similar attacks from Kursk, to the Seelow Heights, to An Loc, to Grozny, even when badly outnumbered by their attackers. History shows that these blitzkrieg tactics bog down quickly when thrown into restricted terrain with well-prepared defenses held by a well-trained, well-armed opponent. That's particularly true when the defender holds air supremacy. Thus, even the reduced expectations seem unrealistic. North Korea could probably do severe damage to Seoul on Day One, but by Day Two, most of its longer-range artillery capable of hitting Seoul would be silenced, and allied air power would be seeking out North Korea's more numerous, shorter-range tactical artillery sites and its more elusive and dangerous short-range ballistic missile launchers.

It's one thing to damage a city, another thing to take it. If this report is accurate, the North Korean strategy still depends on the use of mechanized and motorized conventional forces, which would have to cover 40 miles of highly obstructed terrain with no air cover and under assault from American and South Korean air power. North Korea has few heavily armored main battle tanks, and even these stood up poorly to such light infantry weapons as the RPG-7 in Afghanistan and Chechnya. The majority of North Korea's tanks are lighter amphibious models designed for the easy fording of rivers, but with such light armor protection that even .50 caliber machine guns would grind them up.

Again, assuming that this report is accurate, it suggests that South Korea ought to accelerate long-delayed plans to upgrade its helicopter gunships, the most efficient way to destroy vehicles in crowded urban areas. It also suggests that the ROK should invest in a large number of inexpensive anti-tank weapons for its infantry and plenty of close-quarter training in their use.

With all that said, even if the new report is a case of a new hypervigilance, that's certainly a healthier attitude than the dreamy complacency that has dominated South Korea recently. I take for granted that a North Korean invasion could be stopped before it reached Seoul, but whether it would be — and with a minimum of casualties — depends on how well the ROK army trains and equips itself.

The K1A1 is still >> than any North Korean tank.

North Korea has also been focusing on guerrilla and terrorist tactics (IEDs, etc) - well, that's always been a big part of the communist battle doctrine, but it's something they appear to have taken a renewed interest in.

[CountDeMoney]

The majority of North Korea's tanks are lighter amphibious models designed for the easy fording of rivers, but with such light armor protection that even .50 caliber machine guns would grind them up.

That 40 mile dash would be a bitch, considering the hundreds of Vulcan mini-guns in established hard points the ROK installed in the mid-90s.  Every inch of that western DMZ line is one big concentric field of fire, chock full of heady CIWS goodness.

[Camerus]

I don't understand the strategy.  Even in the very unlikely event it worked and they momentarily captured Seoul, what terms would they then expect the South to agree to?

[HisMajestyBOB]

I don't understand the strategy.  Even in the very unlikely event it worked and they momentarily captured Seoul, what terms would they then expect the South to agree to?

All ROK Presidents must follow Dear Leader's Fashion Wisdom!

[Josquius]

Wow, N.Korea being sensible.
But how do we know this?

[Tonitrus]

I was going to say something about "NK is crazy, we'd never agree to a cease-fire until we roll up to the Yalu river"....but MacArthur is long dead.

[Caliga]

Wow, N.Korea being sensible.

[HisMajestyBOB]

I was going to say something about "NK is crazy, we'd never agree to a cease-fire until we roll up to the Yalu river"....but MacArthur is long dead.

Uh, no he isn't. 
"Old soldiers never die, the just fade away"

He's in cryogenic storage in B5 of the Pentagon, ready to be revived when the Japs or Chicommies get uppity.

[grumbler]

Wow, N.Korea being sensible.

Consider the source.

Blitzkrieg without air superiority into a massive urban area... what could possibly go wrong?

[DisturbedPervert]

I don't understand the strategy.  Even in the very unlikely event it worked and they momentarily captured Seoul, what terms would they then expect the South to agree to?

North Korea's new plan skips phase one and two and goes straight to the profit!

[Ed Anger]

I hope a commando team is tasked to kick Tim in the nuts.

[Tonitrus]

Wow, N.Korea being sensible.

Consider the source.

Blitzkrieg without air superiority into a massive urban area... what could possibly go wrong?

The North Koreans might believe that the West has lost the will to exploit their air superiority in urban/civilian settings...probably thinking we won't use significant amounts of ordinance at risk of whatever Seoul civilians cannot make it out; and that their blitzkriegers would be mostly safe from the air.

Though a new Korean War will probably give a big kick to the balls of the military doctrine we've been using for the last decade. 

[Josquius]

Wow, N.Korea being sensible.

You don't think so?
Old way: 'We will occupy the country which is in every way our superior (not to mention its ally which isn't just in a different league to us but isn't even playing the same sport) in a week! Mwa ha ha!'
New way: '....yeah...if war with the South comes we're screwed. We're a rogue state though...And you know how developed nations are about civilian casualties. Rather than waging war in the traditional fashion we should take hostages!'

[Ed Anger]

Wow, N.Korea being sensible.

Consider the source.

Blitzkrieg without air superiority into a massive urban area... what could possibly go wrong?

The North Koreans might believe that the West has lost the will to exploit their air superiority in urban/civilian settings...probably thinking we won't use significant amounts of ordinance at risk of whatever Seoul civilians cannot make it out; and that their blitzkriegers would be mostly safe from the air.

Har. they in for a big supplies!