Lexington: "A Nation of Jailbirds"

[Savonarola]

Jokes don't hurt society. Jokers do.

That's why we have Batman.

[Norgy]

Indeed.
Gotham City is safe and has a model prison system.

[Malthus]

The crack epidemic doubled the US prision population in a decade but somehow totally avoided Canada? 

Didn't it?  It seems to have not hit Europe.

Nope, plenty of crack here - along with every other "hard" drug you could think of.

Particularly in downtown east side Vancouver (hi, CC!  ).

Though it exists everywhere. Here's a recebnt example of its prevelance:

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/front+line+crack+epidemic/1137471/story.html

We also have a permanently stoned and crime-ridden underclass, many of whom will do every drug there is and sniff gasoline when drugs are not available - natives on reserves (also massively disproportionately represented in prisons here - blame BB).

However, in spite of all that, in spite of close proximity to the US and its culture (and its drugs), and being very similar in many respects, the incarceration rate here is much lower on a per-capita basis - something like one-sixth. 

As an explaination, "crack cocaine" alone will not do.

[Barrister]

Crack cocaine is a huge problem here.

[Berkut]

I don't think there is any explanation that "alone" will do it.

I am not sure what point you are trying to make Malthus.

And do you ahve any data to back up your claims here? Is the crack cocaine problem as serious in Canada overall? Is the gang warfare over drug turf as serious?

Is Canada, in fact, all that similar? I don't really think it is, at least not in the ways that influence things like crime rates, and hence incarceration rates.

[Barrister]

And do you ahve any data to back up your claims here? Is the crack cocaine problem as serious in Canada overall? Is the gang warfare over drug turf as serious?

Is Canada, in fact, all that similar? I don't really think it is, at least not in the ways that influence things like crime rates, and hence incarceration rates.

What kind of statistics would you like in discussions how "serious" crack cocaine and gang warfare is?

[Admiral Yi]

What kind of statistics would you like in discussions how "serious" crack cocaine and gang warfare is?

Incarceration rates!

[KRonn]

And do you ahve any data to back up your claims here? Is the crack cocaine problem as serious in Canada overall? Is the gang warfare over drug turf as serious?

Is Canada, in fact, all that similar? I don't really think it is, at least not in the ways that influence things like crime rates, and hence incarceration rates.

What kind of statistics would you like in discussions how "serious" crack cocaine and gang warfare is?

In the US the prison population is out of whack, I agree. Given the crime rate, we obviously need to incarcerate a lot more people! Or maybe send them to Canada to get straightened out.   

[Malthus]

I don't think there is any explanation that "alone" will do it.

I am not sure what point you are trying to make Malthus.

And do you ahve any data to back up your claims here? Is the crack cocaine problem as serious in Canada overall? Is the gang warfare over drug turf as serious?

Is Canada, in fact, all that similar? I don't really think it is, at least not in the ways that influence things like crime rates, and hence incarceration rates.

My point is your first sentence.

Little Timmay posted with heavy sarcasm that the crack cocaine epidemic explained the huge increase in incarceration, with the implication that this was obvious.

My point is that this explaination did not explain, because Canada experienced a similar epidemic (and indeed continues to) without experiencing a similar increase in incarceration.

I have no idea how to measure the relative seriousness of gang violence. It is certainly making the news these days, very much so. This in today's news:

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/World+media+focus+Metro+gang+violence/1472363/story.html

With under a year to go to the 2010 Winter Games, a headline like "From heaven to hell: 18 die as drugs war rages on streets of Vancouver" is not what politicians and tourism promoters want to see.

But the spate of murders, drive-by shootings and even random violence, like the Gibsons care home shooting, have drawn the inevitable attention of international media now focused on Vancouver's looming Olympics.

"I Googled 'Vancouver gang violence' last night and it's everywhere," said Vancouver Coun. Geoff Meggs. "I hope this round of violence will burn itself out, but I don't think it has been good for the city's image by any means. We all know it is a dark time in the city's history."

Although the rash of murders and shootings has generated international attention, the piece that has caused the most discussion is an article last week in The Independent, a well-regarded British newspaper.

Under the headline quoted above was the subtext "The Canadian city has been named the best place in the world to live. But those halcyon days are over."

As for evidence, I'd say that a Canadian federal prosecutor stating that crack cocaine is a "huge problem" is at least some evidence.

And speaking of evidence - why is it that you are always making claims and then asking everyone else for evidence, while never supplying any of your own? Do some of your own work for once. 

[Barrister]

As for evidence, I'd say that a Canadian federal prosecutor stating that crack cocaine is a "huge problem" is at least some evidence.

Of course on the other hand we (in the Yukon) have no "gang" problem to speak of.

Lots of crime of course, but no one organizes into gangs.  Why would you need to - you know all your fellow criminals on a first-name basis anyways.  :canuck:

[grumbler]

Is the argument that the policies of the War on Drugs actually *causes* violent gangsterism? I suppose a case can be made that having drugs illegal encourages gangsters, giving them a livelihood - but drugs are sold by gangsters in Canada as well as in the US.

Yes, the argument is that the harder the crackdown on drugs, the more violent the drug gang wars become.  I didn't even know that this was controversial, and thought that it had been seen in Canada as well as the rest of the world.

In the US, you have a larger per-capita demand for drugs, and so a larger market over which to fight, so fights might be disproportionately more bloody, but I think that the correlation in time between skyrocketing US incarceration numbers and the increase in the "war on drugs" is not coincidental.  The WoD doesn't explain all of the difference between US and Canadian incarceration numbers, of course, but it probably explains more than 20% of it.

[Neil]

Is the argument that the policies of the War on Drugs actually *causes* violent gangsterism? I suppose a case can be made that having drugs illegal encourages gangsters, giving them a livelihood - but drugs are sold by gangsters in Canada as well as in the US.

Yes, the argument is that the harder the crackdown on drugs, the more violent the drug gang wars become.  I didn't even know that this was controversial, and thought that it had been seen in Canada as well as the rest of the world.

In the US, you have a larger per-capita demand for drugs, and so a larger market over which to fight, so fights might be disproportionately more bloody, but I think that the correlation in time between skyrocketing US incarceration numbers and the increase in the "war on drugs" is not coincidental.  The WoD doesn't explain all of the difference between US and Canadian incarceration numbers, of course, but it probably explains more than 20% of it.

Is the per-capita demand for drugs really higher in the US than in Canada?  There's lot's of drug-using scum here as well.

[Berkut]

As for evidence, I'd say that a Canadian federal prosecutor stating that crack cocaine is a "huge problem" is at least some evidence.

It is great evidence that there is a subjectively "huge problem" in his experience.

Tells us nothing really about relative issues between countries though.

And speaking of evidence - why is it that you are always making claims and then asking everyone else for evidence, while never supplying any of your own? Do some of your own work for once.

I am happy to provide any evidence I have, or simply concede that I don't have it when I do not. Is there some data that I have mentioned in particular that you wish to challenge?

[Malthus]

Is the argument that the policies of the War on Drugs actually *causes* violent gangsterism? I suppose a case can be made that having drugs illegal encourages gangsters, giving them a livelihood - but drugs are sold by gangsters in Canada as well as in the US.

Yes, the argument is that the harder the crackdown on drugs, the more violent the drug gang wars become.  I didn't even know that this was controversial, and thought that it had been seen in Canada as well as the rest of the world.

In the US, you have a larger per-capita demand for drugs, and so a larger market over which to fight, so fights might be disproportionately more bloody, but I think that the correlation in time between skyrocketing US incarceration numbers and the increase in the "war on drugs" is not coincidental.  The WoD doesn't explain all of the difference between US and Canadian incarceration numbers, of course, but it probably explains more than 20% of it.

The argument I've always seen is that by making the product illegal, the authorities provide fuel for the gangs, who then engage in violent conflict to control the money.

What I do not get is that cracking down harder on druggies itself makes the gang violence worse, and I'm not sure why this would be so. It seems to me that the significant bit is that the product is illegal and thus must be bought from criminals, ensuring huge profits (and much to fight about). That wouldn't be something that is all that different in Canada.

[The Minsky Moment]

And before anyone just goes and writes these numbers off on just "the war on drugs":

The first stat I could find states that 20% of prisoners in the US are there for a drug offence.  http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/prisons.htm

There are a couple of issues here though.
First - your table only relates to state prison population.  If you look at federal prisons, in 2007, over 95,000 of the 180,000 federal prisoners were in for drug offenses.  The federal prison population is still much smaller than the state prison population, but it is growing at a very fast rate.  These cases are threatening to overwhelm the entire federal judicial system.

Second - grumbler's point is correct - there may be offenses not coded as drug offenses but which in fact are heavily drug-related.  Weapons charges, robberies, burglaries, and homicides in particular often involve criminal situations where drug trafficking is the underlying criminal activity and the the charged crime is something that occurs ancillary to that. 

It's very difficult to accurately specify the full effects of the drug laws on incarceration levels, but it is very substantial, and almost certainly more that the already very substantial 350,000 prisoners serving sentences specifcally on charged drug offenses.

I take no position on the cross-country comparisons, however - there are too many variables at play.