MLB Opening Day--One day closer to football season

[stjaba]

Orioles thump the Yankees and the uberpitcher CC Sabathia.
For at least one day, baseball life is good.

To paraphrase Churchill, tomorrow Sabathia will be sober, but Baltimore will still be stuck with the Orioles.

True, but even the O's are getting better. They have a decent amount of offensive talent(Markakis, Roberts, Huff, etc.) with more on the way(Wieters).

The Yanks are going to be good this year, but they're definitely on the decline. All their best players are getting worse every year as they're getting older. Rivera is getting close to 40. They're going to be stuck with A-Rod until something like 2017, which would be okay if he was on PEDs, but I think he's going to decline faster than everyone anticipates. Nate Silver of Pecota and 538 fame predicts that A-Rod won't touch the HR record.  Jeter is awful defensively, but there's no way he's cut loose after next year, unless management wants to alienate the fanbase. I know it will be a hard decision, but the "right" thing to do will probably be to cut Jeter, unless he wants to switch positions. Unfortunately, 1B is locked up for the next several years, so I don't know where he would even go.

It's funny because last year they want for the youth movement, and this year they returned to the free agent approach. What are they going to do in the next 1- 2 years when Posada, Rivera, Jeter, Damon, and Petttite really decline? I don't really buy Cano and Gardner/Melky Cabrera as long term solutions either.

I think Boston is going to be dominant over the next few years. They have money, like New York, but they also have one of the smartest front offices in the game. They also have plenty of minor-league talent on the way.

[Neil]

Nationals got beat up.

Toronto won, I guess I should be happy about that.

Wrong.  As a Canadian, you should hate baseball, and you should hate anything from Toronto or Vancouver.

[The Minsky Moment]

True, but even the O's are getting better. They have a decent amount of offensive talent(Markakis, Roberts, Huff, etc.) with more on the way(Wieters).

The Yanks are going to be good this year, but they're definitely on the decline.

You can't talk about the Yankee hitters being in decline and then cite to Huff as a reliable offensive talent.  He can't be expected to continue at the level he hit last year.

As for Arod - you can't have it both ways.  Either he has been off the PEDs since he said he went off (in which case he is perfectly capable of MVP level performances without them) or he has figured out a way to beat the system and hence can continue to benefit from them.  All the projections I've seen him have him as a cinch to hit 700 and with a decent (30+%) chance at catching Bonds.  That is plenty good enough.

Finally there is no binary choice between the "free agent approach" and the "youth approach".  Theo does both.  Its just a question of how you do it.  The statgeek wisdom on free agents is that you go after the grade A guys with good health track records.  The Yankees hit 2 out of 3 on that basis.  CC and Tex are still pretty young guys and Tex bolsters the infield defense. Damon has already been moved out of CF and Jackson is maybe a year out in the minors.  They have a couple of very solid catching prospects coming up the system as well.  And there is still a huge pipeline of young arms in the minors that can be used to bolster the staff over the next 1-2 years or as trade bait.

[katmai]

As long as A-roid is on the team Yankees will choke.

[stjaba]

True, but even the O's are getting better. They have a decent amount of offensive talent(Markakis, Roberts, Huff, etc.) with more on the way(Wieters).

The Yanks are going to be good this year, but they're definitely on the decline.

You can't talk about the Yankee hitters being in decline and then cite to Huff as a reliable offensive talent.  He can't be expected to continue at the level he hit last year.

Well besides Huff, the O's talent is young, meaning they are close to peaking, or peaking. Though Huff is kind of old(32) he's younger than most of the key players on the Yankees. And last year wasn't his first good year. If you go by OPS+, he actually has had 2 other years that were equal or better. He did struggle in 07 and 06, but I think 08 is a better representation of his talent. His best years were with Tampa Bay in the AL East, and now that he's back in this division I think he will thrive. Finally, he plays a position that isn't as stressful on his body compared to players like A-Rod, Jeter, or Posada. He will "age" better.

Let's look at the Yanks lineup:
Jeter: Good offensively, is league worst defensively. Is 35, and shortstops typically do not age well.
Damon: Had a good year last year after a mediocre ones. Is also 35, almost quit the game last year.
Teixeira: Obviously a talent all around. Not the best 1B in the game, but one of the best. Is 29.
Matsui: Has battled different injuries over the years, is also 35.
Posada: Battled injuries last year is 37. Catchers usually don't age too well either.
Cano: Is young, talented, but prone to streaks and crappy OPB. Is 26
Nady: Pretty good, not sure if he's a long term solution. Has had 1 really good year. 30
Ransom: Is no A-Rod, that's for sure. 33
Gardner: Pretty decent, nothing special. 25

There are good names in this lineup, but the problem is that this team is old. The average age is 32, with key players from the past being the oldest. As they get older every year, more and more injuries are inevitable, aside from the decline in ability that happens when ballplayers get older. And the Yankees don't have the depth to overcome injuries. Prime example: Posada's injury last year, A-Rod right now. I remember last year watching the Rays pitchers killing the Yanks with fastballs. A few years ago, the Yankees would have eaten up those pitches, but now guys like Damon don't have the bat speed like they used to.

As for Arod - you can't have it both ways.  Either he has been off the PEDs since he said he went off (in which case he is perfectly capable of MVP level performances without them) or he has figured out a way to beat the system and hence can continue to benefit from them.  All the projections I've seen him have him as a cinch to hit 700 and with a decent (30+%) chance at catching Bonds.  That is plenty good enough.

My point with A-Rod is that he will decline with age. PEDs have masked other player's declines(think Roger Clemens to Rafael Palmerio) I'm not a doctor, but I suspect that PEDs are more beneficial to older players than younger players. As A-Rod gets older, I think he will decline faster than what we're used to.

Finally there is no binary choice between the "free agent approach" and the "youth approach".  Theo does both.  Its just a question of how you do it.  The statgeek wisdom on free agents is that you go after the grade A guys with good health track records.  The Yankees hit 2 out of 3 on that basis.  CC and Tex are still pretty young guys and Tex bolsters the infield defense.

True, but I don't think Cashman is smart at it as Theo. Boston's (and Tampa Bay's)offseason was far less risky than New York's. I think it's plainly obvious that long term contracts like those given to Sabathia and Tex are fairly risky. They've killed the Yankees in the past. New York can have all the money in the world, but it won't buy them championships in today's game.  It's not a coincidence that that most teams have shied away from them. Also, I'm a little skeptical about the CC signing. Last year was pretty stressful on his arm. Plus the fact he's extremely fat. I do agree that Tex was a good signing.

I'm not saying the Yanks will be awful this year. But in the next few years as the team ages, I think we're going to see more years like 2008 or worse, which would be fine if the Yankees were in a different division, but they're in the AL East.

Re: A-Rod. This article claims he has a 30% chance of passing Bonds. Is that really worth the $30 million per year he will be making? His contract is going to turn into a huge anchor on the Yankees if he doesn't keep up his current performance.

Here's the article about the odds of him getting the record:

We're less than two years removed from Barry Bonds' somber, strange and soulless quest to break Henry Aaron's lifetime home run record. It was a spectacle most sports fans -- even the few like me who were relatively sympathetic toward Bonds' plight -- would go to great lengths to avoid experiencing again.

Unfortunately, it seems history is getting ready to repeat itself. Alex Rodriguez already has hit 553 home runs, by far the most for a player who just completed his age-32 season. He needs only 203 more to surpass Aaron and 210 to best Bonds. Rodriguez has hit an average of 42 home runs per season since joining the New York Yankees in 2003. If he maintains that pace, he'll overtake Bonds' mark on the last day of the 2013 season. And he seems to have plenty of time to spare, being under contract with the Yankees through 2017.

But player haters can rejoice: Rodriguez's breaking the career home run record is nowhere near the foregone conclusion it appears to be. The reason boils down to that fine print you ignored when you invested your daughter's college fund in Citibank stock a few years ago: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Rodriguez certainly has been among the best players in baseball over the past couple of years. And chemically enhanced or not, there are a lot of indicators that ordinarily would be favorable toward his continuing to perform well. Among them:

All-around athleticism. Rodriguez is far from a one-dimensional player. At an age when most guys refrain from challenging themselves on the basepaths, he still averages about 20 stolen bases a year. He plays a fairly difficult defensive position and plays it pretty well. He is a complete hitter, able to draw walks and hit for average as well as aim for the fences. Multidimensional players, generally speaking, age better than unidimensional ones.

The Benjamin Button Principle. This is the concept that the beginning of a player's life sometimes resembles the end -- guys who start their careers with a bang sometimes tend to end it that way. Rodriguez, who arguably was already the best player in baseball by the age of 20, started his career like few others in history; he has a better-than-usual chance of finishing it that way.

Perverse Incentives, Part I. Rodriguez stands to make a $30 million bonus if he breaks the all-time home run record. If he gets close, those are 30 million reasons for him to extend his career until he does, rather than consider early retirement.

On the other hand, another set of indicators implies uncertainty in Rodriguez's future:

The aging curve. The steepest part of the aging curve -- when a hitter experiences the most decline in his abilities -- tends to come between ages 32 and 34. Rodriguez, who turned 33 this past July, now is about halfway through that period. And he hasn't come away completely unscathed. He hit 30 home runs in the first half of the 2007 season and 24 in the second half, then 19 home runs in the first half of the 2008 season but 16 after the break. That could be just a fluke -- or it could mean he has started on a fairly steep downward trajectory.

Injury risk. Although Rodriguez generally has been the picture of health, that trend somewhat reversed itself in 2008, when he missed 24 games, the most in any season since 1999. Injury problems sometimes can be compounding, especially when a player reaches his mid-30s. There also is some anecdotal evidence that players who have experimented with steroids are more inclined to have chronic injury problems.

Perverse Incentives, Part II. Unless he was investing with Bernie Madoff, Rodriguez already has all the money he'll need for life, and it's highly unlikely he'll ever be on the market again. Most of us, given a guaranteed salary for the next nine years that requires us to do nothing other than show up and put on a uniform, might become somewhat lackadaisical in our work habits. Many professional athletes are different -- but others aren't.

The favorable and unfavorable indicators are reflected to some degree in Rodriguez's series of PECOTA comparables. His list includes many Hall of Famers, such as Dave Winfield, George Brett, Frank Robinson, Reggie Jackson, Tony Perez and Hank Aaron himself, who were elite athletes late into their 30s or even their early 40s.

But it also includes some other players whose careers did not end all that gracefully. First are the guys who succumbed to injury, like Jeff Bagwell and Albert Belle. Next are a couple of players who, like Rodriguez, were known or suspected to use performance-enhancing drugs: Sammy Sosa is A-Rod's No. 1 comparable, for instance, and Ken Caminiti his No. 4. Finally, there are players like Ryne Sandberg whose skills simply atrophied sooner or more suddenly than expected. 

I took Rodriguez's top 20 PECOTA-comparable players and averaged their performances over each remaining season of their careers. Actually, the process was a little more complicated than that (each comparable's performance was adjusted for his park and league context, as well as his previous track record, and we had to make an accommodation for guys like Manny Ramirez who made A-Rod's comparables list but have yet to conclude their own careers). But the basic idea is simple: Comparables like Frank Robinson, who aged well, have a favorable effect on Rodriguez's forecast, and players like Caminini just the opposite one.

PECOTA's best guess is that Rodriguez will finish with 730 lifetime home runs, running out of steam after another three or four seasons and leaving him just shy of the marks established by Aaron and Bonds. Of course, there is a lot of uncertainty in this estimate. If Rodriguez follows the path charted by Aaron or Frank Robinson, he could finish with well in excess of 800 home runs (and possibly as many as 900). On the other hand, if he draws Albert Belle's ping-pong ball, he might not top 600. Overall, the system puts Rodriguez's chances of surpassing Aaron at only about four in 10 and of surpassing Bonds closer to three in 10.

One needs to remember the ways Aaron and Bonds finished out their careers were far from typical. At least as common are folks like Jimmie Foxx (before Rodriguez, the fastest player to 500 home runs), who hit just 34 home runs after turning 33. Only about a dozen players have hit 200 or more home runs from their age-33 seasons onward; Bonds and Aaron are the only two to have hit at least 300.

In other words, Rodriguez still has his work cut out for him if he wants to pass Bonds and Aaron. Say what you will about his past performance -- for him to get across the finish line still would represent a remarkable accomplishment.

Code Select Expand

2009 33 586
2010 30 616
2011 27 643
2012 25 668
2013 18 686
2014 16 702
2015 12 714
2016 8 722
2017 4 726
2018 3 729
2019 1 730


[Syt]

The Pirates have some good young talent, Pedro Alveraz, especially. They should be decent in the next few years.

Yeah, as their manager said, they want to build up the team "the right way", i.e. with a solid foundation. That's something I like about American pro sports - there's more long term planning involved. In European soccer, where a bad season can cost you millions or even break the club if you are sent down a league the sights are set a bit more short term for immediate success (well, at least in German Bundesliga).

[jimmy olsen]

I am now a Yankees fan.

One 9 year old boy cannot be wrong, especially when is my progeny.

Soon you will learn to bask happily in the reflected hate and envy of boosters of inferior teams like the Red Sox and Angels.  Not to mention farcicial basket bases like the Orioles or the Pirates.

Nothing feels better than embracing the Dark Side.

Since 2001 the Red Sox have won two titles and the Angels one. The Yankees on the other hand have won none.

[katmai]

Shitty story to pass on.

Angels rookie Adenhart killed in hit-and-run crash

By GILLIAN FLACCUS, Associated Press Writer
13 minutes ago

ANAHEIM, Calif. (AP)—Los Angeles Angels rookie pitcher Nick Adenhart and two other people were killed Thursday when a minivan ran a red light and struck their sports car.

Adenhart, 22, died after undergoing surgery, University of California, Irvine Medical Center spokesman John Murray said.

A fourth person remained hospitalized in critical condition.

The Angels confirmed Adenhart’s death in a statement and said no other members of the Angels organization were involved in the accident.

“The Angels family has suffered a tremendous loss today. We are deeply saddened and shocked by this tragic loss. Our thoughts and prayers go out to Nick’s family, friends’ loved ones and fans,” general manager Tony Reagins said.

The team said Adenhart was survived by his parents, Jim and Janet.

“He lived his dream and was blessed to be part of an organization comprised of such warm, caring, and compassionate people,” the family said in a statement issued through the team.

“The Angels were his extended family. Thanks to all of Nick’s loyal supporters and fans throughout his career. He will always be in everyone’s hearts forever.”

Adenhart, of Silver Spring, Md., was the Angels’ No. 3 starter. He threw six scoreless innings in Wednesday night’s loss to Oakland in his fourth major-league start and first of the season.

Adenhart and three other people were in a silver Mitsubishi that was struck shortly before 12:30 a.m. by a minivan that ran a red light and also hit another vehicle, police said.

The sports car struck a light pole, killing three people inside.

Police Lt. Craig Brower said the minivan driver fled the crash scene and was captured a short time later. The driver was arrested and booked for investigation of felony hit-and-run.

Adenhart, a right-hander, earned a spot in the starting rotation on an injury-plagued Angels staff by impressing manager Mike Scioscia late in spring training.

The pitcher made his major league debut May 1 of last year, also against Oakland. He made two other starts, getting his only decision in a victory over the Chicago White Sox on May 12. He was 37-28 in the minor leagues from 2005-08, including 9-13 last year at Triple-A Salt Lake.

The Minnesota Twins held moment of silence before their game against the Seattle Mariners. Also, there was to be a moment of silence before the start of the Texas Rangers’ home game against the Cleveland Indians.

[jimmy olsen]

Just awful.

[The Minsky Moment]

Let's look at the Yanks lineup:
Jeter: Good offensively, is league worst defensively. Is 35, and shortstops typically do not age well.
Damon: Had a good year last year after a mediocre ones. Is also 35, almost quit the game last year.
Teixeira: Obviously a talent all around. Not the best 1B in the game, but one of the best. Is 29.
Matsui: Has battled different injuries over the years, is also 35.
Posada: Battled injuries last year is 37. Catchers usually don't age too well either.
Cano: Is young, talented, but prone to streaks and crappy OPB. Is 26
Nady: Pretty good, not sure if he's a long term solution. Has had 1 really good year. 30
Ransom: Is no A-Rod, that's for sure. 33
Gardner: Pretty decent, nothing special. 25

Let's do the same with the Sox - Varitek is a 37 yr old catcher and a gaping wound in the lineup.  Lowell came back to earth last year and is 35.  Big Papi is 33 and coming out of a down year.  JD Drew is also 33 and terribly injury prone.  Bay is 31.  Even Youk is past 30.

That leaves the youngsters which are Pedroia (magnificent), Ellsbury (who I think will end up being a solid regular but nothing more) and Lowrie (who I actually am high on but hasn't made a big impact in the majors yet).

It is a strong lineup overall but it isn't hard to imagine a scenario where by midyear, Drew is on the DL, Ortiz and Lowell & Bay are all hitting in the 260s and George Kottaras is having to play every day.  Will that happen?  Probably not - but its easy to make things look bad if you take the most pessimistic view about everyone.

Here's the article about the odds of him getting the record:

PECOTA is a perfectly decent projection system, but it is designed for single season projections, not career.  And one of the problems with comp based projection system is that superstars cause them problems because they are often rather unique players with few true comps.  The fact that Silver's system apparently weights Caminiti as a serious comp to Arod is a good illustration of that problem.  No doubt it comps Gary Gaetti as well. 

There are real examples of players with Arod's kind of profile falling off like that - Eddie Matthews and Ernie Banks spring to mind.  But generally speaking, power is a skill that ages relatively well.   Further injury is always a risk, but barring that the Silver projection looks extremely pessimistic.

[Valmy]

Not to mention farcicial basket bases like the Orioles or the Pirates.

The Orioles are 2-0

[The Minsky Moment]

Not to mention farcicial basket bases like the Orioles or the Pirates.

The Orioles are 2-0

The Orioles are famous for the April prowess.   

[Valmy]

The Orioles are famous for the April prowess.   

They are?

Um...the Orioles went 1-22 in April once, the worst month in Major League history.  Or maybe that is the sort of prowess you are referring to

[The Minsky Moment]

The Orioles are famous for the April prowess.   

They are?

2008: they went 6-1 to  start last year, and were in 1st for much of the month.
2007:  they had a winning record in late April, before falling back below .500 the rest of the way.
2006: they had a winning record second to last day in April, 13-13 on the last.  They lost 93 on the season.
2005: 16-7 in April, good for 1st place and a 4 game lead.  Final season record: 74-88 
2004: 12-9 in April, and first place as late as April 23.  Losing record on the year.
2003:  13-12 April.  71-91 for the year.

The 1-22 you refer to was in 1988.  Ie 20 years ago.  And they sucked every month that year; they lost 107 games.

I figured you all would pick up on the streak dating over the past 6 years in a row, as opposed to 1988.   

[Valmy]

I figured you all would pick up on the streak dating over the past 6 years in a row, as opposed to 1988.   

Somehow that streak left a much bigger impression on me then them going 13-13 in 2006.