Wash Post: Obama postpones meeting with Dalai Lama to avoid upsetting Chinese

[Berkut]

Iran is not/will not be a major regional power because:

+They are shi'ite theocrats and hence suspected by the Sunnis
+They are an economic pygmy that cannot even produce remotely enough gasoline for its not exactly hard driving population despite sitting on some the world's most massive hydrocarbon reserves.

They are a significant regional player because of the raw resources and the ability to make a nuisance of themselves through their connections with various terror groups abroad, but that is it.

[Queequeg]

Iran is not/will not be a major regional power because:

+They are shi'ite theocrats and hence suspected by the Sunnis
+They are an economic pygmy that cannot even produce remotely enough gasoline for its not exactly hard driving population despite sitting on some the world's most massive hydrocarbon reserves.

They are a significant regional player because of the raw resources and the ability to make a nuisance of themselves through their connections with various terror groups abroad, but that is it.

Bingo.  If they had some kind of reasonably ideology that was not totally irreconcilable with education (beyond literacy, the Koran and the Shahnameh, that is) and free-market reform, and to be honest maybe if they were a bit bigger (if they didn't loose Azerbaijan to the Russians, dk what else) and had more natural resources than oil, but I see Iran becoming less important in the medium term, not more so.  The inevitable revolution could be fairly chaotic, and there is a chance they'll lose Iranian Azerbaijan, Kermanshah and there will be instability in Baluchistan.  During the election the military attempted to secure Kermanshah and the west as rapidly as possible just in case the situation started to spiral out of control, which it almost did.

EDIT: Interestingly, that situation could be really bad for Armenia.  Azerbaijan would be twice as big, maybe more so, and Armenia is right now playing off Iran, Turkey and Russia in a delicate game that would make Bismarck proud.  Crap. 

[Razgovory]

Oh look, it's Spellus championing some crappy-ass hellhole backwater country.  Never seen that before

I didn't know he was a big fan of Kentucky.

[Queequeg]

Oh look, it's Spellus championing some crappy-ass hellhole backwater country.  Never seen that before

I didn't know he was a big fan of Kentucky.

I kind of am.

[Caliga]

I found it an interesting read, much more interesting than most things that are posted here.

My needling of Spellus is permitted to occur irregardless of the individual value of any of his posts. 

[Caliga]

I didn't know he was a big fan of Kentucky.

Same to you sucka.

[Eddie Teach]

irregardless

tsk, tsk.

[Razgovory]

I didn't know he was a big fan of Kentucky.

Same to you sucka.

I've been to Kentucky.  It doesn't compare to Missouri.  Here, we even walk upright and don't drag our knuckles.

[garbon]

I found it an interesting read, much more interesting than most things that are posted here.

Of course, it would have been more relevant if he'd mentioned the more recent examples (1700s forwards), rather than reaching back into ancient history.  As it was, it lacked punch.

[Queequeg]

Of course, it would have been more relevant if he'd mentioned the more recent examples (1700s forwards), rather than reaching back into ancient history.  As it was, it lacked punch.

o rly?
Of course Afghanistan was a plaything of Empires in the 19th Century.  The entire world outside of Europe north of the Donau and west of the Oder was.  Afghanistan just happened to, unfortunately, be a recent playground of empires, rather than one in the relatively distant past. 

[garbon]

o rly?

Perhaps you would like to re-read my post:

it would have been more relevant if he'd mentioned the more recent examples

aka, there are examples but he didn't mention them.

[Berkut]

The problem is that Iran is really good at supressing dissent, and they spend a huge amount of their resources doing so.

That is why I find it odd that people are so quick to proclaim them the great regional power - their primary security concern has not changed a bit, if anything, it will get worse as a result of Iraq, not better. It's not like those dissidents Saddam was harboring where doing anything tangible anyway.

By this logic, the USSR was not a superpower because it expended large resources on suppressing internal dissent.

1) I never said Iran was not a major regional power because they have internal security issues. I said that Iraq no longer being a threat doesn't make them MORE of a regional power, because Iraq was never their primary security concern anyway, so them being more friendly isn't that much of a help.

2) Iran != USSR. Seriously, why even bother making such a patently ridiculous point as that?