2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Admiral Yi]

I suspect the "the economy!" stuff is majority "we can't be having a woman /coloured /whatever president but still have enough respectability that we  need an excuse..."

Bill Clinton ran on "it's the economy stupid."  What was the hidden agenda of Clinton voters?

Blaming the economy on the sitting president/administration is a constant.  Has been for as long as I've been alive.  It's bipartisan consensus.  Allan Trachtman includes it in his predictive model.

[Sheilbh]

Bill Clinton ran on "it's the economy stupid."  What was the hidden agenda of Clinton voters?

Blaming the economy on the sitting president/administration is a constant.  Has been for as long as I've been alive.  It's bipartisan consensus.  Allan Trachtman includes it in his predictive model.

And as Nate Silver pointed out there does seem to be a connection between experience of inflation (particularly for staples) in a state and how Trump is polling.

[Barrister]

I suspect the "the economy!" stuff is majority "we can't be having a woman /coloured /whatever president but still have enough respectability that we  need an excuse..."

Bill Clinton ran on "it's the economy stupid."  What was the hidden agenda of Clinton voters?

Blaming the economy on the sitting president/administration is a constant.  Has been for as long as I've been alive.  It's bipartisan consensus.  Allan Trachtman includes it in his predictive model.

So the whole Trump experience since 2015 has taught me racism is a more significant factor in voting than I would have previously thought.

But otherwise - yes. 

If Harris wins it'll actually be bucking trends, as many other incumbents across the democratic world seem to be losing.  Inflation, in particular after decades of it not being a factor, has hurt a lot of people.

[DGuller]

I have a couple of suspicions about "economy" voters.  One suspicion is the same as Josq mentioned:  it's better to sound vapid or stupid than to sound racist or sexist. 

Another suspicion is that in the age where people live in different realities, people's perception of economy are what they want the perception to be.  It's not just limited to GOP voters either, during the rule of GOP presidents Democrats talked down the economy as well, regardless of what it was actually doing.

[Barrister]

I have a couple of suspicions about "economy" voters.  One suspicion is the same as Josq mentioned:  it's better to sound vapid or stupid than to sound racist or sexist. 

Another suspicion is that in the age where people live in different realities, people's perception of economy are what they want the perception to be.  It's not just limited to GOP voters either, during the rule of GOP presidents Democrats talked down the economy as well, regardless of what it was actually doing.

So I was trying to be generous and not dismiss "racism/sexism" out of hand.

But even if you ask someone who is racist/sexist, I guarantee they aren't telling themselves "I'd vote for Kamala if only she wasn't a n-word/c-word".  They are telling themselves "I don't trust her on the economy" or whatever - even if that boils down to not trusting her because she is black and/or a woman.

[DGuller]

Yeah, I didn't mean to say that the deception only happens for other people.  No one likes to think of themselves as bad guys, even very bad guys.

[Valmy]

Indiana shifting towards the Democrats so far...giving me a good feeling for the rest of the midwest.

I've got a feeling,
A feeling deep inside,
Oh yeah, oh yeah, that's right.

I've got a feeling, a feeling I can't hide,
Oh no, no, oh no, oh no.
Yeah, yeah, I've got a feeling, yeah, whoo.

Oh please believe me,
I'd hate to miss the train,
Oh yeah, yeah, oh yeah.
And if you leave me,
I won't be late again, oh no, oh no, oh no.
Yeah, yeah, I've got a feeling, yeah I've got a feeling we're going to win!

[Josquius]

What was the Indiana swing?
I've heard it's there but don't have a decent data source.

[DGuller]

Betting markets moved 5 points for Trump, this is not good.

[Zoupa]

Betting markets moved 5 points for Trump, this is not good.

 

[Josephus]

Georgia going Trump big time

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

Too early to say, especially given the shenanigans in DeKalb and elsewhere.

[Grey Fox]

Georgia going Trump big time

Fayette county is close to 50% to 50%. That's where which side Georgia will fall is going to be decided.

[Admiral Yi]

This ABC clip says Harris is beating the 538 "benchmarks" for how each candidate has to do in every single county in America.

I piss on your doom and gloom Josephus.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

The Black Nazi is getting trounced in the North Carolina gubernatorial race.  Hopefully that's a good sign for Harris.