Is the Obama Administration Over?

[Hansmeister]

The healthcare thing is failing?
Damn, I thought the bulk of the republicans had begun to realise it was a sane idea. I really haven't been keeping up with the news lately....

The GOP is more interested in passing laws that require a birth certificate to run for president.

What does this have to do with the GOP?

[Caliga]

What does this have to do with the GOP?

Pay him no heed; he's living in a fantasy world.

[Queequeg]

Do you really think that Turkey would want to conquer Kurdistan?  Why add more Kurds?

Yes, and who said anything about 'adding' Kurds?

The Turks have a way with minorities.... eh, Spellus? 

Neil is right and Biden was retarded.  Neither Syria, Iran nor Turkey would allow an independent Kurdistan, and Iran would have trouble with a Sunni Arab state in control of Baghdad, and Syria and Turkey would have problems with a Shi'ite controlled Baghdad.  It was-by far and away- the stupidest suggestion during a period of fantastic defeatist stupidity.

For all his claimed "expetrise", I don't think I've ever heard Biden say something really insightful on foreign relations, especially in regards to the Middle East. After 9/11, he suggested that we "give Iran a blank check".  So he wanted to bribe (which wouldn't work, obviously) a state that not only had nothing to do with 9/11, but was by far and away the most active opponent of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and he Taliban.

[alfred russel]

Don't sell healthcare too short. I don't see how democrats will be able to look voters in the eye if nothing passes.

In theory I agree with you, but is passing a messy compromise that results in significantly more spending with no real changes really going to be possible?

Not to mention that Baucas is among those who are vehemently opposed to reform...

Did you read this article in the Washington Post yesterday?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/22/AR2009072203282.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

The story relates how several conservative democrats voted on the concealed weapons bill that was successfully filibustered by a narrow margin: apparently there were several members that voted with the NRA at the very last moment (and one that even switched his vote to the NRA side) only after making sure the NRA would be defeated.

Until conservative democrats start sinking the democrats on core issues, I'll expect them to fall in line when the party needs them.

[Sheilbh]

I don't think that's fair. I just think he's been caught with his pants down time and time again, and seems t have trouble actually planning getting legislation past.

Actually in terms of legislation past he's above average so far.  It took until April before W Bush proposed his first major legislation and until June for Clinton to do similar (Clinton was fighting some embarassing nomination issues and the gays in the military fight for a long time).

I think some form of healthcare will pass.  And I think six months is a preposterously short period in which to judge a President.  By this point Bush II had approval ratings under 55% and in some polls under 50%, Clinton didn't even have a honeymoon.

Is the Obama administration over?  Probably not but the honeymoon may be, which should be a very good thing because it could lead to more focus on what's being proposed and the various arguments for and against.

I think Obama's lucky to have an opposition party that seems  singularly weak, leaderless, directionless, thoughtless and damaged.  I mean the only leader in the Western world with half that kind of luck is Sarkozy and I do think that a better comparison is the Republicans are like a right wing PS rather than the Tories in 1997.  They even have the improbably popular, good-looking female politician/Joan of Arc impersonator.  It's unfortunate.

What does this have to do with the GOP?

Good government generally requires a a good opposition.  If you've got one that's getting distracted by fringe conspiracy theories then it's bad. 

[derspiess]

Good government generally requires a a good opposition.  If you've got one that's getting distracted by fringe conspiracy theories then it's bad. 

How big of a distraction is it, really?

[Berkut]

Good government generally requires a a good opposition.  If you've got one that's getting distracted by fringe conspiracy theories then it's bad. 

How big of a distraction is it, really?

It's huge.

If Obama fails at anything, that is likely the reason. The GOPs fault for not opposing him more effectively.

[Jaron]

Just wondering..

if the US said we're going to make an independent Kurdistan..

What could Turkey, Syria or Iran do about it?

If the US/UN could create Israel of all countries in the heart of Arabdom, doesn't that basically say we could create any state the fuck we want anywhere we want and if the locals don't like it - its just too damn bad.

[Strix]

Just wondering..

if the US said we're going to make an independent Kurdistan..

What could Turkey, Syria or Iran do about it?

If the US/UN could create Israel of all countries in the heart of Arabdom, doesn't that basically say we could create any state the fuck we want anywhere we want and if the locals don't like it - its just too damn bad.

The World was a much different place at that time. It's unlikely that the US/UN could pull it off again.

[Jaron]

Not that logic means much coming from you Strix, but why do you think that?

[Berkut]

I am not sure they pulled it of fthe first time - its not like the creation and history of Israel is some great success story.

What could they do about it? The same thing they've "done" about Israel - start a never ending low level insurgent war that results in a political disaster that never ends. At least in theory.

[Jaron]

You mean an independent, stable functioning Democracy in the Middle East that has flourished for the last forty years populated by a people who've been Nomads since the times of the Romans isn't a success story?

[Valmy]

If the US/UN could create Israel of all countries in the heart of Arabdom, doesn't that basically say we could create any state the fuck we want anywhere we want and if the locals don't like it - its just too damn bad.

What if the local Kurds don't like being part of Turkey, Iraq, and Iran?  Is that just too damn bad?

But anyway no independent Kurdistan will be made unless the Kurds do it themselves.

[Jaron]

If the US/UN could create Israel of all countries in the heart of Arabdom, doesn't that basically say we could create any state the fuck we want anywhere we want and if the locals don't like it - its just too damn bad.

What if the local Kurds don't like being part of Turkey, Iraq, and Iran?  Is that just too damn bad?

My point isn't about self determination. It is that the world is America's to do as she pleases.

[Sheilbh]

How big of a distraction is it, really?

Well that'll be for the electorate to decide.  If they perceive the Republicans as a party spending its time on conspiracy theories or issues they don't care about then unless Obama really fucks up, they won't support the Republicans. 

You know it's like when the Tories ran their campaign in 2001 as 'X number of days to save the pound'.  Most people were opposed to entry into the Euro, most people knew the Tories opposed it and that Labour supported it after a referendum.  Now that campaign may have excited the Tory diehards who wanted a strong oppositionist line to the EU but to anyone else it seemed like a distraction.

Similarly with the Republicans.  These conspiracy theories exist in the Republican base.  I think it's tough to respond to because you don't want to piss those people off by saying 'this is nonsense, what we need to focus on is how we beat his party in 2010 and then him in 2012, not on fringe lunacy', but if you don't tell them to sit down and shut up then there's a danger that it looks like they're more influential than they are (a la Move On).  If you spend time humouring them then I think unconvinced voters may look at that and ask why you're spending time on that at all.

Basically I don't know how much of a distraction it is.  I generally also believe in that cliche that oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them.  Having said that, while I don't think oppositions need great ideas or a clear direction or a strong leadership they need to give the impression of having real ideas and above all they need to look like a credible government-in-waiting.  That's why I think this sort of distraction is dangerous to parties and why I think the 'hip-hop suburban urban strategy' is bullshit.  People don't want Republicans who play hip-hop and wear baseball caps.  They want Republicans too look like a responsible, clear-headed, credible government and that's the job of the party leadership in opposition.