Is the Obama Administration Over?

[Valmy]

my impression is that the opposition is weak, lacks focus and leadership. individual candidates from GOP will get elected on a reeactive "mad as hell and not going to take it anymore" ticket, but that's normal, especially in a struggling economy.

The GOP is very reactionary of late but then that is pretty common for the opposition party.  That usually is enough to get a party back in office.

[alfred russel]

What will their campaign be in 2010? "Give us bigger supermajorities and we will deliver change this time--we promise!"

Health care is such a contentious issue that no matter what congress does it's bound to upset a lot of people.  I expect that doing nothing would cost Democrats seats, but passing a comprehensive health care reform package would cost them seats as well.

You are probably right in the short term, but if you are going to lose seats anyway, why not get something done?

Sask--if democrats do nothing on major issues, I'm sure each member of congress will run a local campaign like you suggest. But there is a national campaign going on as well, and the national trends tend to determine whether seats are gained or lost. Nationally, I would expect democrats to be demoralized in 2010 and less prone to turn out.

sure, but after a 18 months in office, as opposed to six months, I think the Obama admin will have a stronger record and will be able to point to some legislative and executive achievements.

my impression is that the opposition is weak, lacks focus and leadership. individual candidates from GOP will get elected on a reeactive "mad as hell and not going to take it anymore" ticket, but that's normal, especially in a struggling economy.

anyhow, must be a slow newsday. this thread is way way premature.

I agree on all points. I think what may have been missed is why I was saying that democrats would be in trouble if they don't pass healh care. My point was that democrats know they will be screwed if they don't build some sort of a record to take to the voters, and thus when push comes to shove they are going to get behind initiatives to save their own hides. Of the major proposals out there, health care probably has the most public support and is the most urgently needed, so I think it passes.

[derspiess]

my impression is that the opposition is weak, lacks focus and leadership. individual candidates from GOP will get elected on a reeactive "mad as hell and not going to take it anymore" ticket, but that's normal, especially in a struggling economy.

Generally agree.  The GOP will find its focus at some point, but it better find some leadership soon if they want to regain significant ground in '10.  Otherwise, they'll get a typical small mid-term bump but only that.

[Caliga]

Generally agree.  The GOP will find its focus at some point, but it better find some leadership soon if they want to regain significant ground in '10.  Otherwise, they'll get a typical small mid-term bump but only that.

Romney.

[Valmy]

Romney.

That should horrify me...but the alternatives are generally worse.

Hey what about that dude from Louisiana?  Knowing nothing about him he seems good since I can project things on him.

[MadImmortalMan]

Romney.

That's looking like the most likely, since all the others are dropping like flies. I doubt Mitt has a girlfriend in South America.

[Fate]

Generally agree.  The GOP will find its focus at some point, but it better find some leadership soon if they want to regain significant ground in '10.  Otherwise, they'll get a typical small mid-term bump but only that.

Romney.

It won't be difficult to swift boat Mr Romney with Bain Capital.

[Fate]

Romney.

That should horrify me...but the alternatives are generally worse.

Hey what about that dude from Louisiana?  Knowing nothing about him he seems good since I can project things on him.

He actually believes he performed an exorcism. Automatic disqualifier.

[Valmy]

He actually believes he performed an exorcism. Automatic disqualifier.

He is in Louisiana.  He probably also performed several Voodoo curses.

That still reflects more rationality than being a Mormon.

[Caliga]

That should horrify me...but the alternatives are generally worse.

Hey what about that dude from Louisiana?  Knowing nothing about him he seems good since I can project things on him.

Jindal, you mean?  He lacks the teflon coating Romney has.  Romney's big problem is that the minority that vehemently supports him--the Mormons--already given 99.9999% of their vote to the GOP anyway.  Then again, same type of deal with Obama and he still won.

[derspiess]

I'm not sure how much Romney or Jindal could do for the GOP in 2010

[Caliga]

He is in Louisiana.  He probably also performed several Voodoo curses.

That still reflects more rationality than being a Mormon.

Romney is likely to figure out a way to marginalize his Mormonism to the general public, or rebrand it as some sort of evangelical bond with the crazy Southern Baptist bloc that he will definitely need in his pocket.  It won't be easy, since Southern Baptists think Mormons are EV0L.

[Faeelin]

Don't sell healthcare too short. I don't see how democrats will be able to look voters in the eye if nothing passes.

In theory I agree with you, but is passing a messy compromise that results in significantly more spending with no real changes really going to be possible?

Not to mention that Baucas is among those who are vehemently opposed to reform...

[Valmy]

It won't be easy, since Southern Baptists think Mormons are EV0L.

Finally, something I can agree with the Southern Baptists about.

[Faeelin]

Romney is likely to figure out a way to marginalize his Mormonism to the general public, or rebrand it as some sort of evangelical bond with the crazy Southern Baptist bloc that he will definitely need in his pocket.  It won't be easy, since Southern Baptists think Mormons are EV0L.

Course, a guy who supports universal health care much like Obama's plan and attended gay pride parades may not be the sort to mobilize the base, if you know what I mean.