Finland, Sweden + NATO

[Jacob]

It's looking more and more likely that Finland and Sweden will join NATO.

At a high level it's great because it's a big fuck you to Putin, an own goal from the invasion of Ukraine.

Looking at it through a Danish lense, it's great to have more of our Nordic siblings in NATO. It's also argued that this puts us in a much stronger position to defend the Baltic states and control the Baltic Sea if necessary - Gotland being especially important strategically. So locally, in the Nordic countries this is obviously a big deal. I expect the Baltic countries and Poland to be pretty enthusiastic about it as well.

In terms of the Russian response, I think the exectations are that they'll complain, move some units around to look threatening, and step up things like cyber attacks and other deniable chicanery - but otherwise settle down.

What do you folks think?

[Malthus]

They certainly aren't in a position to do anything about it at the moment. Even assuming they ever were. They have their hands full, and then some, with Ukraine.

Given recent events, any nation that borders Russia would have to be crazy not to want to join NATO. Otherwise, as soon as Russia feels strong enough (and assuming it doesn't ruin itself with its current adventure), it is guaranteed that Russia will find some excuse (in many cases a compliant minority of Russian ethnicity who can be persuaded to form a separatist group) to bite off a chunk ... 

[The Brain]

I agree that it is very unlikely that Russia would do significantly more than whine.

[Barrister]

So nothing more (or less) than 200 years of history kept Sweden from joining NATO, but for Finland it was long a fear of Russia.

Obviously now with the bulk of Russia's army tied up in Ukraine Russia can't even do much in the way of threatening military maneuvers right now.  And I suspect his cyber capabilities are tied up right now as well.

[viper37]

And I suspect his cyber capabilities are tied up right now as well.

Syt is no longer posting in the Facebook thread...  that gives you a pretty good idea of how well Russia hands have been tied in this department lately

[Barrister]

Heh - I didn't get where you were coming from at first viper. 

[DGuller]

I think it's now or never for any country even remotely contemplating NATO membership.  If Russia doesn't get fatally injured, they're going to come for anyone in their "sphere" who's not entangled in any alliance.  I don't see how they have anything to lose.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Maybe we should get Moldova in too while we're at it. Are there any mercenary groups laying about that kick the Russians out of Transnistria? It's only a 1000 or so (more local militia though but if done quickly...).

[Barrister]

Maybe we should get Moldova in too while we're at it. Are there any mercenary groups laying about that kick the Russians out of Transnistria? It's only a 1000 or so (more local militia though but if done quickly...).

I mean I really do not follow Moldovan politics, but I didn't think their government was very western-facing.

Google suggests they are constitutionally neutral, and NATO has supported Moldova's independence and neutrality.  Moldova had a Communist, Russian-aligned government as recently as the 2000s.  I don't believe Moldova has had anywhere near the same level of NATO training for it's troops that Ukraine has had.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Maybe we should get Moldova in too while we're at it. Are there any mercenary groups laying about that kick the Russians out of Transnistria? It's only a 1000 or so (more local militia though but if done quickly...).

I mean I really do not follow Moldovan politics, but I didn't think their government was very western-facing.

Google suggests they are constitutionally neutral, and NATO has supported Moldova's independence and neutrality.  Moldova had a Communist, Russian-aligned government as recently as the 2000s.  I don't believe Moldova has had anywhere near the same level of NATO training for it's troops that Ukraine has had.

Moldova's current government is more west-leaning iirc. And even if it wasn't, they'd be able to read maps and understand Putin's goals, and what that means for their independence.
But yeah, their army is small, and in bad shape.

Obviously none of this is going to happen, but then most thought a war wasn't going to happen either

[viper37]

Heh - I didn't get where you were coming from at first viper. 

these posts, from his sisters, often with grammar or spelling mistakes (they didn't write it themselves, they were republished) always look to me as something produced by some of Russia's troll farms.

[Sheilbh]

Very good news I think. What a result for Putin's policy

On a parochial side I think the UK government will be thrilled.

[Barrister]

Very good news I think. What a result for Putin's policy

Putin has just got to be getting madder and madder.

At what point does he switch from just doubling down to trying to withdraw?  Obviously he'll want to go through with the coming Donbass offensive, but does he keep going if that doesn't succeed?

[Sheilbh]

I don't know if there's anything to it - but I keep thinking that May 9/Victory Day must be a key date for Putin right now.

Although I wonder if Russia might stay relatively quiet for the next few weeks to keep re-grouping but also, possibly, boost Le Pen's chances?

[Admiral Yi]

Remember Princess Diana's old Land Mine Ban?  Finland was one of the non-signatories, claiming they needed mines to deter Russian attack.